Hamas Chief Assassination to Have Disruptive Effect on Gaza Peace Talks - Experts
© AP Photo / Jehad Alshrafi
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MOSCOW (Sputnik) - The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, as well as Israel's strike on a senior Hezbollah official, will have a detrimental effect on the ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, experts told Sputnik.
Ceasefire and hostage release are becoming even less probable.
"I think that the Israeli assassinations in quick succession of leading figures in Hezbollah, which has been a strong supporter of Hamas, and Hamas itself are a major setback for efforts to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages seized by Hamas in October," Gareth Jenkins, a non-resident senior research fellow with the Joint Center Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, said.
Furthermore, the death of Haniyeh, which is "a major blow for Hamas and a huge embarrassment for Iran," will increase the risk of the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalating into a regional war, the expert added.
"There will be hardliners in both Hamas and Iran who will be pushing for a strong response," Jenkins said.
At the same time, Iran's options are limited as Tehran "knows that it cannot defeat Israel on the battlefield," the expert also said.
"In the past, Iran has reacted to such setbacks by carrying out covert, rather than overt, attacks, including through its allies and proxies. The fear is that it might do so again, although the response may or may not be immediate," he said.
Meanwhile, Kanishkan Sathasivam, a professor in the Political Science department at Salem State University, believes that the ceasefire negotiations will continue, although the situation is "very fluid" at the moment.
"The peace talks will continue, if only because other actors such as Qatar and Egypt will insist to Hamas that they keep negotiating. Hamas may break off talks for a few days in a purely symbolic act of defiance, but they will face too much pressure to be able to completely break off talks," Sathasivam said.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is not quite as simple, he said.
"So the question really is whether Iran wants a war with Israel or not? Whether we are talking about Hamas, or Hezbollah, or the Houthis, or militias in Iraq, these actors are all extensions of the regime in Tehran. Yes, they all have some measure of autonomy, but if Tehran gives them a direct order, they are not in any position to refuse that order," the expert concluded.
Earlier on Wednesday, Hamas confirmed that Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli attack on his residence in Tehran after he took part in the inauguration of newly elected Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian. On Tuesday night, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had carried out a strike in a southern suburb of Beirut, adding later that the "most senior military commander" of Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, had been killed in the attack. A local source told Sputnik on Wednesday that Shukr's body had been found under the rubble.
