https://sputnikglobe.com/20240828/zelenskys-new-ballistic-missile-likely-just-a-dusted-off-soviet-era-design--missile-expert-1119939341.html
Zelensky’s ‘New Ballistic Missile’ Likely Just a Dusted Off Soviet-Era Design – Missile Expert
Zelensky’s ‘New Ballistic Missile’ Likely Just a Dusted Off Soviet-Era Design – Missile Expert
Sputnik International
Ukraine has announced the successful testing of a mystery new ballistic missile. Sputnik asked a veteran Russian military observer and missile expert to comment on the development.
2024-08-28T16:02+0000
2024-08-28T16:02+0000
2024-08-28T16:02+0000
military
volodymyr zelensky
mikhail gorbachev
ukraine
russia
nato
icbms
tochka-u
army tactical missile system (atacms)
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Volodymyr Zelensky teased media in Kiev on Tuesday by revealing that Ukraine had tested its first-ever ballistic missile.Zelensky did not elaborate on the nature or characteristics of the new weapon, sparking speculation that the ‘new’ missile may have been the Hrim-2 (Russian ‘Grom-2’, lit. ‘Thunder-2’) a prospective tactical missile system announced in 2014, and which got financial backing from a Middle Eastern buyer, but was thought to have been canceled after the US approved the sale of its own missiles to its Mideast allies.“Zelensky says a lot of things,” Vasily Dandykin, a veteran Russian military analyst, missile expert and retired Navy Captain 1st rank told Sputnik, not ruling out that Zelensky’s new missile claims are just “propaganda” meant to energize Kiev's backers.Dandykin pointed out that going back to Soviet times, the development of tactical ballistic missiles was left to design bureaus in Russia, with Soviet Ukraine focused on ICBMs, space rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, etc. Ukraine lost even many of these competencies in recent decades.The analyst doesn’t rule out that Zelensky’s “new” missile could actually be an upgraded Tochka-U – a “serious” Soviet tactical missile design with a 120 km firing range and a highly destructive 420 kg warhead.Alternatively, Dandykin suggested, it could be an upgraded Oka – a Soviet theater ballistic missile with a 400 km range that was liquidated from Soviet stocks in the late 1980s by Mikhail Gorbachev in a short-sighted gesture of goodwill toward Washington.The Oka was possessed by three of the USSR’s allies in Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria, and Dandykin doesn’t rule out that Sofia may have transferred the missile tech to Kiev as military aid.It’s also possible that Ukraine’s defense engineers may try to recreate Russia’s Iskander missile based on whatever remains of it after use.Whatever the case, Zelensky’s constant requests for NATO long-range weapons – Taurus from Germany, ATACMS from the US, etc., points to limitations in Kiev’s own defense sector, especially amid regular Russian strikes on Ukraine’s defense enterprises, but also due to costs and the advanced technologies involved, Dandykin stressed.Ukraine’s experience with the Neptune subsonic anti-ship cruise missile, which is also based on a Soviet design – the Kh-35, shows perfectly the limitations of the country’s defense sector, with an estimated 10-15 Neptunes produced annually “in the best case scenario,” and “used rarely,” Dandykin said.Whatever missiles Ukraine manages to produce, Russia’s air defenses will be ready to intercept them, Dandykin believes. “We intercept the Tochka-U…Our air defenses, as even Westerners admit, are the best in the world in all areas, from short-to-long range complexes,” he said.
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can ukraine produce new missiles, how dependent is ukraine on soviet weapons technology, can ukraine independently produce large quantities of weapons
can ukraine produce new missiles, how dependent is ukraine on soviet weapons technology, can ukraine independently produce large quantities of weapons
Zelensky’s ‘New Ballistic Missile’ Likely Just a Dusted Off Soviet-Era Design – Missile Expert
Ukraine has announced the successful testing of a mystery new ballistic missile. Sputnik asked a veteran Russian military observer and missile expert to comment on the development.
Volodymyr Zelensky teased media in Kiev on Tuesday by revealing that Ukraine had tested its first-ever ballistic missile.
Zelensky did not elaborate on the nature or characteristics of the new weapon, sparking
speculation that the ‘new’ missile may have been the Hrim-2 (Russian ‘Grom-2’, lit. ‘Thunder-2’) a prospective tactical missile system announced in 2014, and which got
financial backing from a Middle Eastern buyer, but was thought to have been
canceled after the US approved the sale of its own missiles to its Mideast allies.
“Zelensky says a lot of things,” Vasily Dandykin, a veteran Russian military analyst, missile expert and retired Navy Captain 1st rank told Sputnik, not ruling out that Zelensky’s new missile claims are just “propaganda” meant to energize Kiev's backers.
Dandykin pointed out that going back to Soviet times, the development of tactical ballistic missiles was left to design bureaus in Russia, with Soviet Ukraine focused on ICBMs, space rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, etc. Ukraine
lost even
many of these competencies in recent decades.
The analyst doesn’t rule out that Zelensky’s “new” missile could actually be an upgraded Tochka-U – a “serious” Soviet tactical missile design with a 120 km firing range and a highly destructive 420 kg warhead.
Alternatively, Dandykin suggested, it could be an upgraded
Oka – a Soviet theater ballistic missile with a 400 km range that was liquidated from Soviet stocks in the late 1980s by Mikhail Gorbachev in a
short-sighted gesture of goodwill toward Washington.
The Oka was possessed by three of the USSR’s allies in Eastern Europe, including Bulgaria, and Dandykin doesn’t rule out that Sofia may have transferred the missile tech to Kiev as military aid.
It’s also possible that Ukraine’s defense engineers may try to recreate Russia’s Iskander missile based on whatever remains of it after use.
“But this is also a question. This is a fairly long-term process, even in peacetime. But let us not forget that unlike Russia, which has many other concerns besides the special military operation, all of Ukraine’s efforts are aimed at fighting us, at destroying us,” Dandykin said.
Whatever the case, Zelensky’s constant requests for NATO long-range weapons – Taurus from Germany, ATACMS from the US, etc., points to limitations in Kiev’s own defense sector, especially amid regular Russian strikes on Ukraine’s defense enterprises, but also due to costs and the advanced technologies involved, Dandykin stressed.
“I think that large-scale production [in Ukraine] is impossible, because it is very expensive, very technologically-intensive, and I do not believe that they have such opportunities, they do not have the production capabilities. Not everyone can afford it - even more developed and richer countries. The Americans, for example, are big shots, but even for them not everything always works out. So this is a very serious thing,” the observer noted.
Ukraine’s experience with the Neptune subsonic anti-ship cruise missile, which is also based on a Soviet design – the Kh-35, shows perfectly the limitations of the country’s defense sector, with an estimated 10-15 Neptunes produced annually “in the best case scenario,” and “used rarely,” Dandykin said.
Whatever missiles Ukraine manages to produce, Russia’s air defenses will be ready to intercept them, Dandykin believes. “We intercept the Tochka-U…Our air defenses, as even Westerners admit, are the best in the world in all areas, from short-to-long range complexes,” he said.
