Trump vs Harris: Secessionism and Polarization on Rise in US
© AP Photo / Charles Rex Arbogast
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Political polarization and secessionist sentiment is on the rise ahead of the 2024 election, US polls show. American observers sat down with Sputnik to discuss how Donald Trump or Kamala Harris' win could affect the already divided society.
The election integrity dispute surrounding the 2020 vote reportedly reinvigorated secessionist sentiment across the US which is continuing to grow ahead of election day. The Texas Nationalist movement, which advocates for Texas to secede from the US, is gaining momentum amid the southern border crisis.
The Lone Star state is not the only one where activists are pushing for independence: around 25 US states are "ready" to leave, according to the Daniel Miller, the president of the secessionist Texas Nationalist Movement, in April.
It is "the overreach of the Biden-Harris administration", starting from anti-Trump lawfare and ending with transgender propaganda, that has fuelled the division dramatically, according to Michael Shannon, a Conservative political commentator and Newsmax columnist.
"Things like that and then the federal government mandating that men who think they are women can compete in women's sport, arresting abortion protesters, people praying quietly in front of abortion mills, the political manhunt against the January 6th rioters that has extended even down to grandmothers, all of this really concerns Republicans, conservatives and I guess the few independents who still respect the rule of law. And so that's what started this real division," Shannon told Sputnik.
The US political commentator noted that Texas secession is unlikely to happen any time soon. Still, he does not rule out that some red states could strive to leave the nation if Harris wins.
"If there becomes a real split, it'll probably start with Ron DeSantis in Florida, who will begin by refusing to cooperate with any federal agency that tries to, and this is assuming Harris wins, any federal agency that tries to impose these, frankly, totalitarian edicts from Washington," Shannon noted.
The YouGov February poll indicated that 23% of Americans would support their state seceding from the US, whereas 28% would support a state other than their own leaving. While 51% of American respondents firmly oppose secession, 27% remain unsure.
A separate YouGov survey shows that the divide across the nation comes along party lines: Democrats and Republicans think they have little in common, unlike their peers a decade ago. Last February, House Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene called for nothing short of a "national divorce" between Republican and Democratic states.
Could the Winner Unite the Country?
The Trump-Harris race is very close, making the country almost evenly split, Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, told Sputnik. Bottom line is that one side is going to be very disappointed by the election results no matter who wins, according to the pundit.
"If Trump wins, you're going to have almost 50% of the country where Democrats are very disappointed," Jewett said. "And if Kamala Harris wins, you're going to have all those Republican Trump fans, almost 50% of the country. They're going to be very upset as well. I think in the short run, it's definitely going to exacerbate, make it worse."
Therefore, the question is whether the winner would try to pull people together, or whether half of American voters will remain alienated, the academic noted, drawing attention to the fact that presently there is some big difference between Democratic and Republican states.
"We'll have to see how the leaders on both sides react if they react as normal or the winner is gracious and the loser is gracious, and then maybe those partisan divides won't be so bad. But if they do not, if they question the election results, or if the winner really rubs it in and says 'okay, now I'm going to do everything I want and I'm only representing the people that voted for me' - that's not going to be great for American society overall."
The professor warns that partisan divisions might get worse potentially in the longer run.
The Race Exacerbates US Polarization
The victory of either candidate could leave the country further disunited, argued Shannon.
"There are two factors. One, Trump needs to win in excess of the steal. They are already talking about it taking 10 or 12 days to finally count all the votes. You only do that if you're trying to steal the election," Shannon said. "The second factor is - will the leftists accept the loss."
The Democratic Party has already gone to the extremes comparing Trump to Hitler and calling him a threat to democracy which could ignite civil disobedience and protests in the event he wins, according to the pundit.
"If they turn loose the same rioters and antifa types that they did when George Floyd died, then you're going to have unrest and rioting and destruction. But it's going to be in the blue states. It's not going to be in the red states. So Trump's going to have to make a decision. Is he going to let the blue states just burn down? Or is he going to intervene and stop that?"
Given the level of distrust of the election procedure and growing polarization in US society, the peaceful transfer of power remains a big if, according to the pundit.
