EU Might Activate Own Defense Provision If Trump Follows Through on NATO Threats – Expert
© AP Photo / Bob Edme
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HERAKLION, Greece (Sputnik) -The European Union may invoke its collective defense provision should US President-elect Donald Trump follow through on his promise to withdraw the United States from NATO, Stavros Kalenteridis, professor at the Aegean College in Athens, told Sputnik.
Trump’s team reportedly told European officials in December that the incoming US administration would demand that NATO members commit to spending 5% of their GDP on defense. In the past, Trump floated the ideas of the US leaving the alliance if other members do not step up their military contribution.
"This scenario becomes more relevant if Donald Trump follows through on his past threats regarding NATO. Trump has previously suggested that the US might not defend NATO member states that fail to meet the minimum defense spending requirements. He even implied that this stance could encourage Russia to target non-compliant countries. If such a situation arises, part of NATO might no longer be perceived as reliable or strong. This would present an opportunity for the EU to activate the Lisbon Treaty’s defense provisions, thereby laying the groundwork for a parallel defense structure. Such a development would undoubtedly weaken NATO," Kalenteridis said.
28 November 2024, 10:29 GMT
He noted that former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was against having a collective defense clause, arguing that NATO should remain the primary defense mechanism and that invoking that clause would be unnecessary. Still, it was included in the text of the Treaty of Lisbon due to France’s insistence.
"This would be the most significant outcome of the political reshuffling in Europe if it actually comes to fruition, and let me explain. The Treaty of Lisbon includes a common defense clause similar to NATO’s Article 5. I’m referring to Article 42, paragraph 7, which enshrines the principle that if a member state is the victim of aggression, all others are obligated to come to its defense," Kalenteridis said.
Should this alternative mechanism prove workable during the upcoming Trump presidency, it could gain momentum and carry on after his administration.
"This scenario would open the door for France to take the lead in this field. Given France’s Gaullist tradition, it has historically sought an independent military course, sometimes diverging from NATO. This would empower the future French president to pursue precisely that goal, potentially breaking NATO’s bonds. In the long term, this could also benefit Russia," Kalenteridis concluded.
In the past, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his skepticism of NATO, going as far as to call it "brain-dead" and arguing in favor of European strategic autonomy. In that, he was part of a tradition that harks back to Charles de Gaulle, the founding father of the Fifth Republic.
