On June 23, Wagner PMC leader Evgeny Prigozhin announced that he and his 25,000 men were kicking off a "march of justice" towards Moscow amid the private military group's feud with the Russian Ministry of Defense, prompting the Federal Security Service (FSB) to charge the Wagner chief with inciting an armed mutiny.
While Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the PMC leader against irresponsible and treasonous actions, Prigozhin's mutiny of June 23-24 caused nothing short of euphoria in the Western media sphere.
Tom Nichols, a staff writer at The Atlantic, immediately projected on June 23 that the unfolding "crisis" could change the course of the conflict in Ukraine and lead to "a lot of bad things" in Moscow "in the next few days, or even hours."
Eurasia Group scholar Ian Bremmer echoed Nichols on June 24: "Prospects for Ukraine’s counteroffensive - which hasn’t gone well to date – improving by the minute," he claimed on Twitter.
"In a slow, unfocused sort of way, Russia is sliding into what can only be described as a civil war. If you are surprised, maybe you shouldn’t be," wrote Anne Applebaum, an American journalist and spouse of Polish MEP Radoslaw Sikorski, who thanked the US government for the destruction of Nord Stream in a later-deleted tweet last year.
Former US ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, went even further by claiming that the "civil war" was already underway and promised a "big fight": "Russians will be killing Russians, probably in large numbers, unless Prigozhin surrenders," the American diplomat tweeted on Saturday.
The Hill joined the chorus, predicting "combat and potential doom": as per the media, passions of ordinary Russians could be "enflamed" and "it's conceivable that some Russian soldiers will defect."
"Much depends on how swiftly Putin can put down the rebellion, or indeed whether he can. Expect curfews and martial law in Rostov and possibly other cities," the media forecast.
The New York Times referred to Wagner's "seizure" of Rostov-on-Don as a "grave threat to President Vladimir Putin's government."
While security had indeed been heightened in Moscow and in Rostov-on-Don, there had been no signs of a gathering storm or a mounting civil unrest in the country. The Associated Press reported that in Moscow "downtown bars and restaurants were filled with customers." The media added that "at one club near the headquarters of the FSB, people were dancing in the street near the entrance."
An apparent cognitive dissonance with regard to the "civil war-that-never-happened" reached its apogee in the West after the news that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko struck a deal with Prigozhin and the latter's announcement that the PMC Wagner Group was returning to its field camps. Some Western netizens couldn't believe their eyes, claiming that "the odds of this being true are slim to none."
McFaul also seemed perplexed by the sudden turn of events which brought to naught the West's "Russian civil war" fantasies: "I was wrong about this. Eager to learn why. There is so much to this story that we don't know yet," the diplomat tweeted.
After dust settled, US intelligence analysts and officials said that they expected Prigozhin's march toward Moscow to become a disaster for Russia: "I do know that we assessed it was going to be a great deal more violent and bloody," an unnamed US official told CNN.
It then turned out that US spies were aware of PMC Wagner Group's plot to launch its mutiny and armed insurrection, the Western media claimed. US congressional leaders were reportedly briefed last week on Wagner's military buildup and movements that apparently preceded their march on Russian cities. One American newspaper wrote that the US intelligence leadership decided not to make their findings public because Moscow might "accuse them of trying to organize a coup in Russia."
However, the West's earlier calls to bleed Russia white and impose a strategic defeat on Moscow make one wonder whether the US and its allies kept their mouths shut because they believed that Wagner's mutiny would help them reach their objectives.
After it became clear that no "civil war" was going to materialize in Russia anytime soon, "Russia watchers" went on persuading their followers that the settlement wasn't a clear demonstration of Moscow's ability to solve crises in a rapid and effective way, but a harbinger of Moscow's "defeat" and a "sign of weakness". Despite this face-saving maneuver, the recent events demonstrated that America's top Russia experts carried out nothing short of a "massacre against their own credibility," as Grayzone's Max Blumenthal assessed in his recent op-ed.
In stark contrast to the Western press, politicians and intelligence brass, numerous foreign leaders immediately signaled their solidarity with Moscow and willingness to help Russia solve its domestic issues.
"As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner of coordination for the new era, China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity," stated the People's Republic's Foreign Ministry, stressing that "this is Russia’s internal affair."
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who successfully thwarted a military coup attempt in 2016, offered his helping hand to Moscow: "President Erdogan said Turkiye is ready to contribute to the speedy resolution of events in peace and tranquility," the Turkish president’s office said in a statement, warning external powers against taking advantage of the events.
Iran signaled its support of the rule of law in the Russian Federation, stressing that the recent incident in Russia was the nation’s internal affair.
Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani also expressed support for the actions of Moscow in connection with the events of June 24.
Kenyan Foreign Minister Dr. Alfred N. Mutua expressed his nation's "solidarity with the Russian leadership as they strive to achieve total stability and order."
Im Chon Il, vice foreign minister of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), met with Russian Ambassador in Pyongyang Alexander Matsegora on June 25 and expressed his country's support for the Russian leadership during a the armed mutiny.
Russia's immediate neighbors, Abkhazia, Belarus and Kazakhstan vowed support to Moscow and stressed the importance of “constitutional order” being restored in Russia. Minsk was especially instrumental in settling the conflict, with Alexander Lukashenko holding talks with Prigozhin the whole day on June 24.
The mutiny of June 24 has become another litmus test that indicated what forces within the international community are walking the talk about the importance of the rule of law and human rights.