How Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons Ensure Belarus National Security

He stressed that Belarus is not going to launch nuclear weapons at anyone, explaining that the tactical atomic arms are intended solely for defensive purposes. "If [the West] commits aggression against Belarus, the response will be instantaneous. The goals have already been determined," Lukashenko said while addressing the press.

Western countries pose a threat to Belarus especially after Minsk indicated its support for Russia over the latter's special military operation in Ukraine, according to military experts Dmitry Kornev and Vladislav Shurygin.

"In the West, Belarus is surrounded by countries, or, more precisely, adjoined by countries that consider Russia a likely adversary," Shurygin told Sputnik. "These are Poland, the Baltic countries, and Ukraine. Therefore, of course, it's absolutely logical [for Belarus] to be concerned about its safety."

One should also bear in mind that a few years ago, hostile forces tried to foment a color revolution in Belarus with the West's assistance, he pointed out.

A series of political protests in Belarus erupted on 9 August 2020 and lasted until March 2021. Later, Russian scholars drew attention to the hybrid nature of the political turmoil which turned out to be an attempted coup d'etat. They noted that the so-called "Belarusian Spring" resembled nothing so much as a testing ground for the latest practice of "color revolutions", as it appeared to be a "fusion" of the technologies of the Kiev Euromaidan (2013-2014), protests in Hong Kong (2019-2020) and the Venezuelan precedent (2019), according to a study by Professor Andrey Manoilo, a political scientist from Lomonosov Moscow State University.

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"Since Belarus actually took Russia's side in the present confrontation between Russia and NATO over the special military operation [in Ukraine], there may be certain fears [in Minsk] that the Western bloc may turn into a potential adversary of the government in Belarus," Kornev, who is also a founder of the Military Russia portal, told Sputnik.

Stationing Russia's tactical nuclear weapons in the territory of Belarus could serve as a "stop-factor" for the West, Kornev noted. In some sense it's a guarantee that the West will not attack Belarus while it is armed with Russian nuclear weapons, he added.

"Now Belarus is under a specific Russian nuclear shield," echoed Shurygin. "That is, any military threat to Belarus automatically means Russia's involvement in this conflict. And, accordingly, this is a conflict with a nuclear power."

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How Could Russian Nuclear Weapons Affect the Balance of Power?

There is nothing new about Russia's decision to deploy its nuclear weapons in Belarus: for years the US tactical nuclear weapons have remained at six bases in five NATO member countries in Europe, namely, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkiye.

Still, one might ask whether stationing of Russian nuclear warheads changes the existing status quo in the region.

"The fact is that on the territory of Belarus, the Belarusian armed forces will probably be able to use these nuclear warheads, which will be deployed there, if the move is green-lighted by the Russian Federation," Kornev assumed. "Accordingly, these [weapons] can be [carried] by frontline aircraft or launched from the Iskander-M missile systems. That is, the Iskander-M missiles would be equipped with nuclear warheads. Both of these apply to tactical nuclear weapons - that is, to nuclear weapons of relatively low power and relatively short range. So far, no one has placed strategic missile systems on the territory of Belarus and does not plan to place them."

According to Kornev, placing Russian tactical nuclear weapons closer to the present NATO borders "changes the strategic balance [in the region] to a certain extent".

Earlier this month Belarusian President Lukashenko expressed confidence that the tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus would never be used, adding that they must nevertheless remain in the country.

"I'm sure that as long as they are here, we will never have to use them, and no enemy soldier will ever set foot on our land," the president emphasized.

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