"It would be wiser and more cost effective to hire experienced Polish, other NATO member nationals, even Americans or South Americans or Asian pilots instead. Even with experienced mercenary or volunteer pilots, the situation for F-16s in the theater of Ukraine will be extremely dangerous, and it will certainly not be well integrated with air defense and surveillance systems, ground support, logistics, or any perceivable strategy to advance a Ukrainian counteroffensive," Kwiatkowski stated.
"This does not include English language training, and while Ukrainian pilots are probably as trainable as any other nationality on an F-16, most are used to Soviet-manufactured aircraft and weapons systems, and air operations in the battlespace. So the muscle memory and the assumptions of these pilots may need to be shifted, and that could take longer for them to become proficient."
Language Handicap
"Unlike the case with a lot of NATO allies and traditional buyers of the F-16s, which have long set in place English language training for their airmen, the situation with Ukraine is a whole different ball game. While its anyone’s guess what percentage of potential Ukrainian F-16 pilots has had any preceding language preparation, it's common knowledge that learning a new language as an adult often takes longer, and presents more of a challenge," Kwiatkowski said.
“Much of this training can be done safely using flight simulators, and yet even this seems to be delayed. The US government may not be excited about seeing the F-16s crash and burn, either in training in the US, or over Ukraine.”
"In 2019, the cost to train a US F-16 pilot was estimated at $5.6 million. Adjusted for inflation, it costs close to $7 million per pilot. This doesn't include six months of language training, or the defense contractor markup. Clearly, simply hiring international pilots who are already proficient on the F-16 would be faster and cheaper. The F-16s exist and are getting older every day. This US training program is more important to the US in a post-war Ukrainian rump state scenario (as a Ukraine NATO junior partner, perhaps) than it is as a way to turn the tide of the war."
"Denmark has a youthful and inexperienced prime minister, The Netherlands is in the middle of forming its new leadership, and Norway's leader has been in place just since late 2021. Words are cheap, unless these prime ministers and national leaders have been promised great deals on replacement aircraft for any gifted or loaned F-16s that they contribute to the Ukrainian war effort. Again, this public posturing may speak more to a post-war scenario in Ukraine, than an actual willingness to provide the weapon. Once in country, the US and NATO will have very little control over their [F-16s] operation and use, and the very real vulnerability of these aircraft begins the very instant they arrive. I don't see this working to the advantage of any donor country, as long as Ukraine is at war," retired US Air Force Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski emphasized.