The US Department of Defense has officially announced the beginning of English language courses for Ukrainian pilots as part of the program to train them to fly US-made F-16 fighter jets. The language training is said to be taking place at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas.
In August, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry estimated that Kiev would get F-16 jets promised by Ukraine's NATO backers in six-seven months. The Netherlands and Denmark since signaled that they would hand their F-16 fighters to Kiev at the beginning of 2024.
However, Gen. James B. Hecker, commander of US Air Forces Europe, was quoted by the Western press as saying that the delivery of several dozens of the US-made fighter jets “isn't going to be the silver bullet" for the Ukrainian military. Previously, ex-Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley also warned Kiev that F-16s won't be a "game-changer" or "magic weapon" that would change the balance of power on the battlefield.
For its part, the Ukrainian military is blaming the failed counteroffensive on allegedly insufficient NATO training and flawed NATO tactics, insisting that the transatlantic alliance prepared them for the "wrong kind of war." Could the training of Ukrainian pilots and delivery of fighter jets fix the problem?
"The questions being asked here are about a decade too late for the US/NATO Ukraine proxy war project, and they certainly should have been considered before over $200 billion in US and NATO military aid has been shipped to Ukraine," Retired Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense, told Sputnik.
"The US and NATO – to the extent that they have conducted military battles – have done so with combined arms, integrating sea, land and air – and command and control/intelligence -- in both offensive and defensive actions. Our last real serious tank battles probably occurred in the early 1990s, with the first US invasion of Iraq. And that war was against a country that had a weak and outdated air force."
"We don't remember how to fight a land battle from 30 years ago – and what is happening in Ukraine has been far more similar to a First World War battlefield than anything else. Americans in particular do not study lessons learned from the First World War – but that is no excuse in this case. Ukraine's 'strategy' vis-a-vis Russia has not been designed by Pentagon military strategists – as [Joe] Biden and [Antony] Blinken say, all decisions are [Volodymyr] Zelensky's. The Pentagon's role here has been logistics - scraping up goods and services and sending them over – without any connection to complementing an existing Ukrainian defense strategy or designing an effective strategy to push back the Russian forces," the former Pentagon analyst continued.
29 September 2023, 20:02 GMT
How Important is Language Training for the F-16 Program?
"Important, but conversational English is probably not required," explained the retired lieutenant colonel. "English is the ICAO standard, and pilots need to be able to know the English required to functionally do their job – to fly. Ukraine actually sent over pilot candidates for training late last year who were already English speakers. Checklists and operations manuals likely are in English – and in the long term, assuming Ukraine would fly this aircraft as an aspiring member of NATO, deeper English language knowledge – perhaps even proficiency – would be required."
Apparently, there is more to this language training than meets the eye, according to the former Pentagon analyst: "Given the numbers of non-English speaking countries who have the F-16 in their inventory, that this angst over English language training for Ukrainian pilots is a US delaying tactic," she suggested.
"What may be delaying the delivery and the training is both concern about escalation risk in general, and the doctrinal divide between US air tactics and strategy, and what the Ukrainians may intend to do with those jets," she said.
How Will the Training of Ukrainian Pilots and US/NATO Pilots Differ?
Per the US/NATO military doctrine, the alliance's forces rely on an approach envisioning "all-domain (Land, Air, Maritime, Space and Cyberspace) operations" and "combined environment". That approach means that the alliance and its various forces are acting in concert with communications, logistics and all supporting services going like clockwork. When one or more elements lack, the efficiency of the strategy suffers.
"I can't say if the US trains pilots in a way different than other air forces – but certainly there will be a lot of simulator practice, and we would train the way we as Americans fly and fight – and that is in the context of a deep combine arms – sea-land-air support tail, and probably, given the lack of experience with actual battlefield defense, our doctrine is likely heavy on offensive use of the aircraft. We would train as we tend to fight," said Kwiatkowski.
"Because Ukrainian pilots or any pilot flying over Ukraine to attack Russian targets will not have the support and battlefield structure we would require for our own forces, I'm sure that the US Air Force is trying to figure out what to emphasize in terms of the F-16's capabilities in order to keep those pilots alive and the aircraft landed. I would expect that the Ukrainian pilots are impatient, and simply wish to get these aircraft and make decisions based on what they believe is possible – and this is the problem," she continued.
How Long Will It Take for Ukrainians to Learn to Fly F-16?
Per Kwiatkowski, the Ukrainian trainees most probably already can fly and operate aircraft. So, assuming that they have some experience, eight or nine months should be enough for them to fly the F-16.
At the same time, "it might take 2 or 3 years of training and practice to enable a Ukrainian F-16 pilot to fight in a NATO operation with other NATO and American F-16 pilots," but that's not on NATO's table right now, according to the analyst. She doesn't believe the US and NATO are going to be flying F-16 squadrons with the Ukrainian Air Force against Russia, any time soon, or ever.
Will F-16 Fighters Help Ukraine to Tip the Balance in its Favor?
The ex-Pentagon analyst also outlined two problems associated with the F-16 training:
First, "when we start talking about US F-16s, as with ATACMS, we are speaking of a more direct US-Russian confrontation, and the US political winds are increasingly blowing away from such a confrontation."
She likewise drew attention to the fact that many NATO countries did not rush to provide training to Ukrainians even though they are capable of doing that, as a gesture of support. Apparently, the fear of escalation simmers.
Second, NATO trainers are "handicapped by the same offensive approach, and assumptions of a well-supported battlespace and logistics" which is something the Ukrainians lack. That is, Ukraine's ability to operate F-16s wouldn't mean a qualitative boost for its military forces and wouldn't ensure their air superiority.
Per Kwiatkowski, the unfolding problems don't mean that seasoned Pentagon strategists are out of touch with reality: "If any real Pentagon war-fighting strategy had been requested, their objective answer would have been, this proxy war will fail, mainly because of logistics" but also due to the loss in manpower and migration from Ukraine, she said.
"Politicians and our politicized military top leadership often desire to play war games – but they don't often listen to actual military strategists whose rational assessment might spoil the game too soon," Kwiatkowski concluded.