Recent polls put Poland's ruling PiS party on 38% support while its major rival, the Civic Platform, has the backing of 30% as of October 1.
While the PiS and its coalition allies Sovereign Poland and the Republicans are still in the lead, one needs to bear in mind that in 2019, PiS approval stood at a staggering 43.6% and has shrunk substantially since then.
Meanwhile, the main opposition party held a massive rally on Sunday called the "March of a Million Hearts" orchestrated by Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and ex-top EU official. "Big change is coming. This is a sign of Poland's rebirth," Tusk told the crowd.
The PiS and the Civic Platform's leaders mince no words when chastising each other. Thus, Tusk calls his opponents "evil" while PiS accused the former European Council president of collusion with Russia. One PiS senator even shared a photo collage showing Tusk and Adolf Hitler waving to a crowd. For its part, the Civil Platform released a campaign poster featuring PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczyński with the caption "I am the threat. To your family. To your children. To your health. To your money. To Poland."
So, what's the balance of political forces two weeks ahead of the election and how could their mutual blame game play out?
"It is a bit banal, but everything is possible," Konrad Rekas, a Polish politician and independent commentator, told Sputnik.
"After October 15 there may be status quo maintained, we may have a minority government of the Law and Justice party (PiS), buying support from every gained MP, and of course there is still a wee possibility of the liberal opposition’s return to power. Everything, as always, depends on the balance of two tendencies: to change and to continuation."
"Despite all the failures and even scandals of PiS, it would be difficult to indicate how the social-liberal opposition could justify calling for change, except perhaps the natural tidiness of some voters, typical after eight years of the PiS rule," he continued.
"In the same way in 2015, the liberal Civic Platform (PO) lost power while surveys have shown the highest ever level of public satisfaction from living. The problem is that the PiS and the main opponents of this party clearly have empty drawers, they have even less to offer Poles than usual, that is, nothing. People will vote for them because the main parties have no one to lose with," the politician noted.
According to Rekas, Tusk supporters "consider themselves the winners of the economic transformation of the 1990s and beneficiaries of joining the EU."
"So it would be the world's first revolution of the well-fed and satisfied, which makes it extremely unlikely," he said. "The liberal opposition managed to arouse some criticism and objections against the introduction by PiS of very timid and inconsistent elements of redistribution of national income but it is more than debatable if that attitude can prevail this time. The Polish precariat, considering itself ‘the middle class’ can believe in its own higher position, dividing this group from the consumers of social benefits, but in fact we all live in the neo-liberal paradigm of the peripheral state, with no chance for true development."
While PiS and Civil Platform's domestic policies differ, their foreign strategies are largely very similar, according to the politician.
Both are subordinate to Washington's dominance, he noted, adding that the possible change of government would make no difference to the US establishment. Likewise, this change would be irrelevant for Berlin and Brussels, too, "because the main parties differ only in phraseology. Both PiS and PO are pro-European parties," Rekas underscored. He has drawn attention to the fact that PiS's anti-German rhetoric has never been accompanied by any actions aimed at reducing Warsaw's economic dependence on Germany.
"A change of government in Poland would make no difference to Kiev because both parties are extremely pro-Banderites and only PiS holds Ukraine-scepticism to win over voters," the Polish commentator continued, referring to the followers of WW2-era Ukrainian Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera.
On top of that, "a change of government in Poland would finally make no difference to Moscow and Minsk because all major parties are aggressively anti-Russian and anti-Belarusian," he summed up.
Meanwhile, the problem is that neither the PiS nor the Civic Platform take into account the Ukraine fatigue growing inside Polish society and the obvious harm the Ukraine conflict inflicts on Poland's economy, according to the politician.
"Poland's involvement on Kiev's side deepens the Polish crisis, and this is not only an electoral fact," he emphasized. "Poles are fed up with Banderites on the streets, the same with enormous aid for Kiev and the gradual colonization of Poland by Ukrainians. And those in power still think that this dissatisfaction will pass and it’s enough to wait till after the election."