Israel was hit by an unprecedented rocket attack from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip on Saturday. The militant group fired around 3,000 rockets and infiltrated bordering populated areas, taking hostages and clashing with Israeli's military.
International observers believe Hamas militants were provided weapons by external forces. Previously, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly cited concerns about weapon deliveries to the Gaza Strip. Ian Gagin, advisor to the head of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), previously suggested that weapons transferred to Ukraine could be used against Israel.
"Yes, this is quite possible, since the weapons received by the Kiev regime come from different sources," Boris Dolgov, doctoral candidate and senior researcher at the Center for Arabic and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), told Sputnik. "Even if it comes from the United States and the European Union, it can be forwarded to those forces that are now fighting against Israel: according to various sources, there are foreign mercenaries from Arab countries in the territory controlled by the Kiev regime."
"These [Middle Eastern] foreign mercenaries are often represented by radical Islamists. And this contingent of foreign mercenaries, that is, Islamists from Arab countries, may well transport and facilitate the transfer of these weapons to the Palestinian forces who are fighting against Israel, since the Hamas movement, is, in fact, connected with the movement Muslim Brotherhood*. There are moderate currents of this movement and more radical ones, but, nevertheless, this is an Islamist movement and connections between various Islamist movements exist," Dolgov continued.
While it is unclear where Hamas got its weapons, there is a possibility that other military organizations could also receive Ukrainian arms through black markets, experts say. Per the US-funded 2021 Global Organized Crime Index, Ukraine is believed to have one of the largest arms trafficking markets in Europe.
Earlier, the Small Arms Survey, a Geneva-based independent research project, reported in 2017 that of the more than 300,000 small arms that disappeared from Ukraine between 2013 and 2015, only around 13% were ever recovered.
How Could Gaza Conflict Evolve?
"If we talk about today's conflict, the escalation of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement is quite serious and in many ways larger than the previous escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflicts," Dolgov said.
According to the Russian academic, the Israeli-Hamas conflict may lead to the greater consolidation of the Arab-Muslim world.
"This probably applies to almost all [Muslim] countries, perhaps to a lesser extent to those countries that now have these relations with Israel, but, nevertheless, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, naturally, and Lebanon to a sufficient extent, and Algeria - these iconic Arab countries, they will, of course, strive for greater consolidation. They very often advocate a cessation of hostilities, but if these hostilities continue and expand, they will, of course, side with the Palestinian national movement," Dolgov suggested.
Israeli-Hamas clashes have not yet spiraled into a regional conflict, let alone a geopolitical issue, believes Andrey Vladimirovich Zeltyn, senior lecturer at the School of Oriental Studies, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
"This is still a local story. What could affect the situation in the region? Probably a big regional war or, conversely, some kind of big regional peace, which, unfortunately, is not yet in sight," Zeltyn told Sputnik.
According to the academic, the Hamas operation that took place was primarily aimed at torpedoing the process of normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Now it all depends on how Israel's possible large-scale ground military operation in the Gaza Strip will unfold, Zeltyn said. Saudi Arabia and Egypt will have to react to the casualties among Palestinian Arabs and conduct their Israel policy accordingly, per the expert. On the other hand, if Israel refrained from any actions, Hamas may potentially think that it could strike again and no retaliation would follow.
"If the operation takes place, then there will no longer be any negotiations about peace. Israel has found itself between the devil and the deep blue sea," Zeltyn said.
Meanwhile, Avichai Adrai, a representative of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), told Sputnik that the Israel Defense Forces is considering all possibilities and options, including a ground operation in Gaza.
"We are in martial law mode, all possibilities and options have been taken into account. We have mobilized tens of thousands of reservists, and in the future this figure may increase to several hundred thousand, which will fill the southern command," Adrai said.
What Will the US Do?
"In strategic terms and in US strategic policy, Israel is a strategic ally, and the US, of course, has always supported and will support Israel," Dolgov said.
On Saturday, US President Joe Biden announced that Washington is ready to provide "all appropriate means of support" to Israel after the Hamas attack. Biden also warned "any party hostile to Israel" not to seek advantage of the unfolding situation.
After Tel-Aviv officially declared war on Hamas, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that the US will ensure that Israel has the necessary means to defend itself. On Sunday, Austin told the US press that following the discussions with Biden he directed the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the region. The group includes an aircraft carrier, a guided missile cruiser and guided missile destroyers, according to the US press. In addition, Washington is considering Tel-Aviv's requests for additional military aid.
For his part, Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to a memorandum of understanding inked between US and Israel under Barack Obama to allocate $3.8 billion per year for Israel in US military aid. Per Blinken, the provision of additional assistance to Tel-Aviv wouldn't require congressional voting. Following the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the lower chamber remains in "chaos", per US observers. Nonetheless, the representatives of the dissenting Freedom Caucus have already signaled their readiness to support Israel. What's more, US policy-makers have signaled that they are going to find "Iran traces" in the Hamas surprise attack. It appears that the local Israeli conflict has good odds of turning into a regional and geopolitical dilemma.
*Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organization banned in Russia.