The ongoing Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) campaign in the Gaza Strip, which has already alienated Tel Aviv from much of the Arab World, has created a serious risk of the Lebanese Hezbollah movement becoming actively involved in the conflict.
IDF forces stationed at the Israeli-Lebanese borders have already been exchanging fire with Hezbollah militants on more than a single occasion in recent days, although it remains to be seen whether these hostilities will escalate.
Commenting on this situation, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter expressed his skepticism about Israel’s ability to deal with both Hamas and Hezbollah.
He pointed out that the major military exercises conducted in Israel in the last two years were meant to determine how the Israeli Defense Force would fare if they had to tackle simultaneously attacks from multiple actors – “if Hezbollah came over the border, if Syria went after the Golan Heights, if Iran started firing missiles” – but they yielded rather unpleasant results.
“And under that scenario, Israel was not able to prevail, especially with the Iranian aspect of the scenario, without major US military intervention,” Ritter said.
He further observed that the Israelis themselves have apparently acknowledged that they do not know the full extent of Hezbollah’s capabilities and that Hezbollah’s sizeable arsenal of rockets may pose a serious threat to Israel.
“Hezbollah can overwhelm the Iron Dome just with its volume alone, the Iron Dome is already going through an ammunition crunch because of what Hamas has done,” Ritter remarked.
He added that the IDF previously failed to destroy Hezbollah back in 2006, and that the Islamist organization has become significantly more powerful since then, with many of its fighters gaining valuable combat experience during the Syrian conflict.
“So, you know, this is the reality: Israel on its own cannot defeat Hezbollah,” he surmised.
Ritter also suggested that the events of October 7, when Hamas militants swiftly punched through the Israeli defenses and even managed to seize control of IDF military facilities, effectively shattered the myth of “Israeli invincibility.”
“Not just in terms of the all-seeing nature of Israeli intelligence, which has been proven false, but the IDF itself, which was considered to be somewhat of an invincible force – not anymore,” he argued.