The Ukrainian President's Office has shredded rumors circulating on Monday of General Zaluzhny's sacking, with the top commander publishing a photo depicting him and Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine Sergei Shaptala in Zaluzhny's office.
Earlier, some prominent Ukrainian lawmakers and journalists claimed that Zaluzhny had been dismissed from the post of commander-in-chief, adding, however, that Zelensky had yet to issue the decree.
"I think that this was perhaps a deliberate action on Zelensky’s part because Zelensky needs to take some action to restore his popularity," Anatoliy Matviychuk, a military expert and retired colonel, told Sputnik. "The test showed that [Zelensky] does not have authority in any of [Ukraine] power groups. So he backed off."
Zelensky-Zaluzhny Hostility Comes to the Surface?
The rumors of Zaluzhny's ousting were preceded by reports of growing enmity between the Ukrainian president and the top general. Some Western media warned last November that relations between Zaluzhny and Zelensky had become "terrible" after Ukraine's botched counteroffensive.
The Ukrainian president tried to pin the blame for the failure on Zaluzhny. Furthermore, without naming Zaluzhny, Zelensky warned "Ukrainian generals" against interfering in the nation's politics. At that time Zaluzhny's close aide Gennady Chastyakov was suspiciously killed by a grenade blast in the wake of the publication of the general's article about the stalemate on the battlefield.
"First, the hostility between Zaluzhny and Zelensky has been going on for almost a year," Matviychuk said. "Seeing the Ukrainian president's unprofessional actions, the commander-in-chief more than once directly told [Zelensky] at meetings that he was not competent enough to resolve many military matters.
"Second, Zelensky understands that Zaluzhny has come out on top in terms of socio-political significance. There is a conflict going on, he controls the troops, the troops know him, the troops trust him. He created a galaxy of commanders and generals who follow him. That is, this is a military force that threatens Zelensky in power."
Matviychuk also believes that the downing of Russia's Il-76 military transport plane by the Ukrainian military may have emboldened Zelensky and triggered him to exert pressure on the top general.
On January 24, an Il-76 carrying 65 Ukrainian PoWs for a swap with Kiev was downed, killing all the PoWs along with six crew members and three accompanying persons. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said its staff was unaware that Russia's Il-76 was transporting Ukrainian PoWs. However, the Ukrainian press reported that the ministry had confirmed that a prisoner exchange between the parties was scheduled for January 24.
"I think that then there was a very serious conversation between Zaluzhny and Zelensky," the retired colonel presumed.
"Zelensky is dreaming about Zaluzhny dying or evaporating: he does not need [the general] in this situation. I understand that Zelensky broke through, the courage drained from him, and he uttered the words: 'I’m firing you.' But after that, many levers were turned on that are unknown to us, we can only guess. I suppose it was also the Anglo-Saxon sources who started protesting. These were nationalist sources in Kiev, many of whom supported Zaluzhny, who began to exert pressure on Zelensky. And, of course, EU member states also joined this chorus."
"All this suggests that the behind-the-scenes struggle has already surfaced, and not just some clans and political groups are being drawn into this, but the entire population of the country," Matviychuk concluded.
Zaluzhny Stood His Ground
When asked what the Ukrainian Armed Forces commander-in-chief's reaction to his possible firing could be, Matviychuk suggested that Zaluzhny apparently simply refused to step down.
"Zaluzhny showed that he would not resign himself; that they should remove him. But they are afraid to remove him, because there is a group of generals who can come at any moment and say: 'Enough is enough, let’s change the president'. That is, Zaluzhny will not leave quietly," the retired colonel suggested.
"Would there be a military coup [were Zaluzhny ousted]? No, there would not be a military coup. I believe that this would have happened very calmly and smoothly, and would have developed into a change of political leadership and a change of Zelensky," the expert continued.
Per Matviychuk, Zaluzhny has already left Zelensky's control.
"There is a very interesting system there: the [Ukrainian] Ministry of Defense has already been divided into sectors," said the analyst. "There is an American sector, with Zaluzhny going to [Pentagon chief Lloyd] Austin, and, in general, he resolves some issues. And the second group is [Kyrylo] Budanov’s group [Budanov is the head of the chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense - Sputnik]. This group is under the UK's control. [Budanov] goes to pay his respects to the head of MI6 intelligence."
Matviychuk does not rule out that the controversy surrounding Zaluzhny could be a plot by the British intelligence services that are testing the waters before changing the Ukrainian leadership and reshuffling the nation's political landscape.
"I understand that [Zaluzhny] has received carte blanche for the future," the retired colonel presumed. "And, today he could lay claim to power given the situation in the country and within the military force. And if this power is not given to him – we see that Zelensky refuses to hold elections – he can take it away by force."
Zelensky is Doomed
Once named a Ukrainian Churchill, Zelensky is swiftly losing popularity abroad and at home. Ukraine's December polls indicated that trust in the Ukrainian president (32%) is less than half that of Zaluzhny (70%) and 13% less than that of Ukraine’s spy chief Budanov (45%), as per The Economist.
One needs to bear in mind that a change in the military-political regime in Kiev would be "mortally dangerous" for Zelensky, as per the retired colonel. Matviychuk explained that Zelensky has already outlived his usefulness for the West and he is no longer a "player" in the unfolding Ukraine gambit. However, the Ukrainian president knows that if he leaves the game, the consequences will be severe.
"He is doomed by three groups," the expert explained. "The first group is the Western curators, who will have to remove him because he knows too much. (…) The second group is [Ukrainian] nationalists, who believe that he lost everything he could and created conditions under which Ukraine practically loses its sovereignty and leaves the political arena. And the third group is the local oligarchs whom he has deprived of their businesses (…). And these three forces will simply physically destroy him."