“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” claimed American author Mark Twain, riffing on an observation made by Marx, Hegel, and others. The statement seems apt in recent weeks as the besieged Ukrainian military increasingly adopts defensive strategies pioneered by its Nazi forebears as its position in the Donbass becomes increasingly untenable.
A story in US media Saturday, unique in its willingness to observe the similarities between the Kiev regime and German Nazis, noted Ukraine's armed forces are “shifting to a defensive strategy that failed Nazi Germany'' in World War II. In an instance of striking historical rhyme, Kiev’s strategy is likely to fail for much the same reason the Nazis’ did.
“Active defense was understood to be generally applicable to divisions, corps and field armies,” said retired US Army colonel Douglas Nash, describing a military tactic pioneered by Nazi Field Marshal Erich von Manstein. Von Manstein developed the tactic late in World War II, when the Soviet Red Army went on the offensive after repelling German troops in Stalingrad. Outnumbered by the Soviets, the Nazis were forced to devise new tactical maneuvers accounting for shortages in soldiers and equipment.
But although the ranks of the German army were rapidly diminishing, the Nazis were still able to gather enough men to execute von Manstein’s complex counterattacks. Nash claims the Ukrainian “squads, platoons, companies and battalions” amassed for the regime’s “mobile defense” operations have been far too small to succeed.
New technology has further undermined Ukraine’s desperate strategy. Russian drones have made battlefield maneuvers difficult for Ukrainian forces which has been under constant surveillance and relentless attacks from the sky by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Guided missiles are also able to strike troops from dozens of miles away. These realities have forced Ukraine to adopt a more static trench warfare strategy.
Politics have also limited the set of tactics Ukrainian commanders are willing to use. The Nazis’ active mobile defense strategy required a willingness to cede ground – at least temporarily – to set a trap for advancing Soviet troops. That’s an unappealing prospect for Ukrainian leaders as the country’s military has lost thousands of soldiers in attempts to capture and hold significant cities.
Like the Nazis driven back towards Berlin after 1943, the Ukrainian military is increasingly forced to defend a large area of land with a small number of troops. Once again Russia’s thoughtful strategy is playing a key role in its favor, with Moscow’s troops able to outperform their opponent even after two years of fighting.