The US president’s escalatory rhetoric vis-à-vis Russia is the result of the realization that he cannot “force” Russia to make the concessions he needs to declare a peace in Ukraine which doesn’t address the conflict’s root causes, Russian Council on Foreign & Defense Policy Dmitry Suslov has told Sputnik.
Succumbing to the “hypocritical flattery” of the neocon wing of the GOP, plus hawkish European allies, Trump is being lobbied to believe that acting “tough” works. At the same time, his intuition is telling him to try to avoid being dragged into a long confrontation with Russia, and thus “become a second Biden.”
The president’s problem is that he’s trying to “maneuver” between neocons and MAGA Republicans who don’t want any more wars on US taxpayers’ dime. “Trump wants to somehow demonstrate toughness to put pressure on Russia, but doesn’t want to ‘privatize’ the Ukraine war,” Suslov argues.
If he uses the leftover $4B from Biden’s budget for Ukraine, he can continue to make the argument that this is ‘not his war’.
But “if he asks Congress for a new budget to support Ukraine, it will mean that Biden’s war has turned into Trump’s war,” Suslov stresses.
“This would be a political disaster, a political defeat for Trump, because he would antagonize his MAGA base even further,” the observer noted. “Trump would effectively become a second Biden, thus committing political suicide.”
As for arms deliveries vs. dialog, everything comes down to the “risks of escalation,” according to Suslov. If Trump approves the use of ATACMS missiles for deep strikes into Russia, this would increase the risks of a direct Russia-NATO clash.
If his efforts are limited to freezing the rapprochement and new sanctions, the impact wouldn’t be nearly as serious, the analyst argues.
Whatever comes next, Russia will “continue its special military operation, and continue to intensify offensive operations and strikes against military and MIC targets in Ukraine, regardless of what the US does or does not do,” Suslov summed up.