Kwiatkowski calls it “a kind of arrogance and an unwarranted confidence in complex data systems.”
In theory, the MDO promises seamless coordination across land, air, sea, cyber, and space. In practice, it depends on perfect data.
“When the system is weakened at any point,” Kwiatkowski notes, “the rest of the system is made more vulnerable to missing, untimely, or bad data.”
The US-Israeli side, while focused on centralized offensive operations and AI-driven targeting, tends to stifle lower-level initiative, the analyst argues.
"Trust in AI for decision-making on targeting is a substitute for a strategy with clear and focused objectives,” she warns.
Iran, by contrast, runs a decentralized, survivable, locally repairable system relying on “well-trained and trusted operators throughout the system. Mosaic and defense driven.”
The US-Israeli precision strikes (PrSM), cyberattacks, and electronic warfare (EW) failed to crush Iran’s resilience because “bombs don’t change minds,” Kwiatkowski contends, noting:
“Political inconsistency and ignorance cannot convince a country defending itself against clearly illegal and unjust attacks.”
The US and Israel can win battles—though we have not seen that in this war—yet still become weakened, lose initiative, and “eventually be forced to withdraw and try to evade responsibility for the many tactical, strategic, and intelligence errors they made,” concludes the former DoD analyst.