Quad Leaders to Meet at G7 After Biden Nixes Summit to Handle Debt Ceiling Talks
© Photo : ANI
Subscribe
The Quad is not a formal alliance, but is widely understood to be an attempt to coordinate a common anti-China policy across the region that Washington calls the “Indo-Pacific.” The four nations have all dramatically increased their military spending in recent years, saying it is in response to a “threat” posed by China.
US President Joe Biden has canceled much of his planned Asia trip over the coming week, including visits to Papua New Guinea and Australia. Sydney was set to host a meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) leaders, which includes Biden as well as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and hosting Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Instead, the four will speak at the Group of Seven summit later this week in Hiroshima, Japan, and Biden will return to the United States afterward to focus on high-stakes budget negotiations instead of embarking on the Asia tour.
“The Quad is an important body and we want to make sure that it occurs at leadership level and we’ll be having that discussion over the weekend,” Albanese said in a statement about the anti-China bloc.
Ross Feingold, a political risk analyst who has over twenty years of experience advising clients on political risk in Taiwan, told Sputnik on Wednesday that the cancellation would be only a minor speed bump in Quad relations, which will remain strong because Washington must retain a significant presence in the Western Pacific.
11 May 2023, 14:24 GMT
“The Pacific Islands Countries (PIC) leaders, and the host Papua New Guinea, will certainly be disappointed that Biden canceled this part of the trip,” Feingold said. “Competition between China and the United States for influence in the Pacific Islands Countries has received significant attention in recent years and is intense and ongoing.”
“On 24 June 2022 Australia, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States announced the Establishment of the Partners in the Blue Pacific, and on 12 July 2022 Vice President Kamala Harris announced the US Partnership with the Pacific Islands. This was followed by the first-ever US- Pacific Islands Summit held at the White House from 28-29 September 2022, at which was announced the Roadmap for a 21st-Century US-Pacific Island Partnership, and the First-Ever Pacific Partnership Strategy,” he noted.
“China’s equally-high-profile efforts in the region [have] included in May 2022 then-Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visits to Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste; a virtual visit to the Federated States of Micronesia; and the China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Fiji, a trip that resulted in the announcement of initiatives in climate change, poverty alleviation and development, disaster prevention, and agricultural promotion,” Feingold said.
“Ultimately, US influence in the PIC will depend on aid as well as a presence,” he said. “The reopening of an embassy in the Solomon Islands and a new US embassy in Tonga helps. A US Coast Guard presence is generally welcomed especially to the extent it helps with law enforcement action against illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing. A presence also includes frequent visits by senior US leaders, which will require President Biden to make up for the canceled visit to Papua New Guinea.”
The budget talks for which Biden has returned to Washington are focused on passing legislation to lift the debt ceiling before the federal government defaults on its debt, which the US Treasury has warned could happen in “days or weeks.” The Republican majority in the US House of Representatives has sought to use the threat of default to compel Democrats to agree to steep budget cuts they would otherwise reject, such as cuts to social programs. If they fail and the government defaults, it will destroy the country’s credit rating and plunge it into an economic crisis.
Feingold said a default is not expected, but if it were to occur, other US-aligned financial centers are more likely to benefit than Beijing.
“As of now, stakeholders in Washington, DC, and the financial world remain cautiously optimistic that a default will not occur. On the outside chance that there is a US default, financial markets and governments in Asia will probably reassess their relationships with the United States, whether that’s holdings of US government securities or other participation in US financial markets,” he said.
“While many assume that this might mean an opportunity for China, there is a greater likelihood that other locations in Asia might be able to play a safe-haven role, such as Japan or Singapore.”
