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Poland’s Elections: Possible Three-Party Coalition Won’t Alter Warsaw’s Foreign Policy - Expert
Poland’s Elections: Possible Three-Party Coalition Won’t Alter Warsaw’s Foreign Policy - Expert
Sputnik International
The Polish parliamentary election results, which indicated the ruling party’s victory, can be called a bit murky, George Szamuely, senior research fellow at the London-based Global Policy Institute think tank, told Sputnik.
2023-10-17T16:25+0000
2023-10-17T16:25+0000
2024-06-30T14:29+0000
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Polish President Andrzej Duda has announced that he would propose forming a new government to the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party that won the October 15 parliamentary elections in Poland.“The election outcome is a little murky,” George Szamuely said, adding that he does not rule out the formation of the “three party [government] coalition led by Tusk, a former EU bureaucrat and a former president of the EU council.”At the same time, he suggested that creating the coalition would be a “very difficult” task as he referred to Poles as “notoriously fractious people.”He argued that if formed, the coalition “will obviously improve relations with the EU and will go along with EU policies”, not least due to the fact that Tusk “has lots of friends” in the bloc.On the other hand, Szamuely added, Polish farmers, on whom the PiS “depends very strongly” in terms of support, “are getting screwed over by all this cheap grain coming in from Ukraine, which was being just dumped in Poland's markets.”The comments come amid souring ties between Kiev and Warsaw, which deteriorated after Poland, along with Hungary and Slovakia, extended their bans on cheap Ukrainian grain imports unilaterally after the European Commission refused to extend it at the bloc level."We do not agree with the decision of the European Commission and in the interest of Polish farmers and consumers, we are introducing national measures," Poland’s government spokesman Piotr Muller said at the time. Ukrainian Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka, for his part, responded by saying back then that that Kiev viewed the three’s decision as unlawful and would dispute it with the World Trade Organization (WTO).The developments were followed by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announcing that Warsaw is “no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons”.Polish President Andrzej Duda tried to walk back Morawiecki’s comments, saying they were “interpreted in the worst possible way.” Duda insisted that in his opinion, the prime minister actually said that Warsaw will not transfer new weapons to Kiev, which Poland is “currently purchasing as part of the modernization” of its army.
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poland's parliamentary elections, possible polish three-party coalition, results of poland's parliamentary elections, relations between kiev and warsaw
poland's parliamentary elections, possible polish three-party coalition, results of poland's parliamentary elections, relations between kiev and warsaw
Poland’s Elections: Possible Three-Party Coalition Won’t Alter Warsaw’s Foreign Policy - Expert
16:25 GMT 17.10.2023 (Updated: 14:29 GMT 30.06.2024) The Polish parliamentary election results, which indicated the ruling party’s victory, can be called a bit murky, George Szamuely, senior research fellow at the London-based Global Policy Institute think tank, told Sputnik.
Polish President Andrzej Duda has announced that he would propose forming a new government to
the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party that won the October 15 parliamentary elections in Poland.
According to the National Electoral Commission, the PiS prevailed by obtaining 35.38% of the vote, but lost the majority, which means the party will not be able to form a government on its own. The PiS is followed by Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition opposition party with 30.7% of the vote, the Third Way centrist party with 14.4%, and the Confederation Liberty and Independence party with 7.16% of the vote.
“The election outcome is a little murky,” George Szamuely said, adding that he does not rule out the formation of the “three party [government] coalition led by Tusk, a former EU bureaucrat and a former president of the EU council.”
At the same time, he suggested that creating the coalition would be a “very difficult” task as he referred to Poles as “notoriously fractious people.”
“But even if they do put it together, I don't think that in terms of foreign policy, anything very much will change. I mean, both Tusk's coalition and the apparently outgoing Law and Justice Party are all on board for NATO's war on Russia, using Ukraine as a proxy. I think they're all very strongly supportive of that,” Szamuely pointed out.
He argued that if formed, the coalition “will obviously improve relations with the EU and will go along with EU policies”, not least due to the fact that Tusk “has lots of friends” in the bloc.
When asked if he thinks “Ukraine factors into the elections at all”, the analyst noted that Poles “are pretty closely united on the issue of Russia” and that “they're all very hostile to Russia” and “are all on board for Ukraine.”
On the other hand, Szamuely added, Polish farmers, on whom the PiS “depends very strongly” in terms of support, “are getting screwed over by all this cheap grain coming in from Ukraine, which was being just dumped in Poland's markets.”
“They [the farmers] were very upset and the government had to do something very urgently in order to placate the farmers. But once the election is over, I think that issue is just going to be put on the back burner,” the pundit claimed.
The comments come amid
souring ties between Kiev and Warsaw, which deteriorated after Poland, along with Hungary and Slovakia, extended their bans on cheap Ukrainian grain imports unilaterally after the European Commission refused to extend it at the bloc level.
"We do not agree with the decision of the European Commission and in the interest of Polish farmers and consumers, we are introducing national measures," Poland’s government spokesman Piotr Muller said at the time. Ukrainian Deputy Economy Minister Taras Kachka, for his part, responded by saying back then that that Kiev viewed the three’s decision as unlawful and would dispute it with the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The developments were followed by
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announcing that Warsaw is
“no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland with more modern weapons”.Polish President Andrzej Duda tried to walk back Morawiecki’s comments, saying they were “interpreted in the worst possible way.” Duda insisted that in his opinion, the prime minister actually said that Warsaw will not transfer new weapons to Kiev, which Poland is “currently purchasing as part of the modernization” of its army.
