Scott Ritter: Ukrainian Military to Crumble by Mid-2024
13:30 GMT 15.12.2023 (Updated: 14:02 GMT 15.12.2023)
© AP Photo / Roman Chop
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The West's military aid to Kiev has been drying up, sealing the fate of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector, told Sputnik's New Rules podcast.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's charm offensive has failed, as US members of Congress are fixing to leave for winter break without passing Biden's $61 billion package for Kiev.
Even though the Democratic-controlled Senate has delayed holiday recess to unlock the aid, the House shows no sign of returning to pass it through the full Congress.
"The day of the West turning over hundreds of tanks, hundreds of armored fighting vehicles, hundreds of artillery pieces is over," Scott Ritter, a military analyst and former US Marine Corps intelligence officer, told Sputnik. "We just don't have any left to give. So the best Zelensky can hope for is your penny packets of armor, penny packets of infantry fighting vehicles, some ammunition, and maybe an F-16 or two. He's going to want a lot of money to continue, to not only sustain the funding of the Ukrainian state, but also to sustain the greasing of Ukrainian corruption, because that's the only thing that keeps Zelensky in power."
The US House of Representatives voted in favor of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on December 14. The bill extended the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative through the end of 2026, authorizing $300 million for Kiev in the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, as well as the next one. Still, the US media admits that it's just a drop in the bucket when compared to the $61 billion requested by Biden.
Both American voters and members of Congress have grown skeptical about funneling more money into Ukraine. Almost 50 percent of US voters believe Washington is spending “too much” in military and financial aid for Ukraine, as per the latest FT-Michigan Ross monthly survey. The sentiment is largely explained by Kiev's crushing defeat during the summer counteroffensive.
Meanwhile, Kiev officials behave as if they are absolutely unaware of the troublesome trend. Earlier this month, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense handed over a "list of armaments to meet the needs of Ukraine’s defense forces" to their American counterparts.
In addition to artillery shells, F-16 fighters, drones, and missiles the list also included F-18 Hornet fighter jets, Boeing Apache attack helicopters, Lockheed Martin Black Hawk choppers, and even the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) air defense system, among other top-notch weapons.
Per Ritter, there's zero chance whatsoever that Ukraine will ever see anything on that wish list, with the exception of perhaps a handful of old F-16 fighters and a fraction of the artillery ammunition that they've requested.
"This is a sign of absolute panic on the part of Ukraine," Ritter believes. "Zelensky is approaching a delusional state where he appears to be of a mindset similar to that which Adolf Hitler possessed in the final days in the Berlin bunker as the Red Army closed in, where he fantasized armies, he was moving nonexistent troops and aircraft on a map with his hands."
14 December 2023, 07:17 GMT
The former Marine intelligence officer explained that providing sophisticated weaponry to Kiev is throwing away money and throwing away capability in the eyes of Washington. Furthermore, Russia knocking out F-18 fighter jets or THAADs would create a bad precedent, let alone the security challenge of US technologies falling into the hands of the Russian military, according to Ritter.
"Ukraine does not factor into the legitimate national security interests of the United States," the military expert highlighted. "We are not going to sacrifice ourselves on the altar of Ukrainian nationalism. We've given them some support, but that support was merely sufficient to create the perception of Ukrainian strength. But we were never going to give the Ukrainians the ability to win this war, because they were never going to have the ability to win this war. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia. They're not physically capable of defeating Russia, regardless of the equipment that the West gives them. So why would we sacrifice the best equipment we have on this altar?"
Meanwhile, as Western military aid to Ukraine is dwindling, Kiev has virtually no chances of withstanding a potential Russian offensive in 2024, Ritter believes. To complicate matters further, Ukraine lost over 125,000 troops during the six months of Kiev's botched counteroffensive, per the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Currently, the Russian military is steadily improving its positions along the entire, nearly 2,000 km-long, contact line in the special military operation zone, as Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed Thursday during his annual presser.
The fate of the Ukrainian Army is sealed, as it does not have the luxury of an operational pause to catch its breath, according to the former UN weapons inspector.
"I don't see Ukraine surviving too long into 2024. Right now, there has been some talk about the potential of a major Russian offensive in the direction of Odessa sometime in the spring of 2024. And I believe that if Russia is moving towards Odessa at that time, it means that the end is imminent for Ukraine," Ritter concluded.
