Germany Can't Afford Rearmament, Let Alone a 'War' With Russia
18:07 GMT 23.01.2024 (Updated: 05:13 GMT 24.01.2024)
© AFP 2023 / CHRISTOF STACHE
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German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has raised the prospect of national rearmament, evoking the spectre of a "Russia threat" as justification. Could Berlin really do the job?
Germany must take into account the possibility of a military conflict with Russia and prepare for it over the next three-five years, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told ZDF on January 22.
He insisted that the German Bundeswehr armed forces should become "a credible deterrent," and that a German combat brigade would be deployed in the Baltics to become "fully combat-ready" by 2027.
In December, Pistorius signed an agreement for the permanent deployment of a Bundeswehr brigade to Lithuania. and announced that the reintroduction of compulsory military service in Germany is now on the table.
Does Russia really present an imminent threat to German national security?
"If you ask me, and if you ask most people in my party, the answer is unequivocally no," Gunnar Beck, Member of the European Parliament for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party who is currently Vice-President of the Identity & Democracy Group in the Parliament, told Sputnik. "Ever since 1990, at the end of the Soviet Union, the Russian government has gone out of its way to intensify economic relations between Russia and Germany. We had extremely favorable energy contracts with Russia. And Russia was a growing export market for our agricultural and industrial goods. It's due to our government's policy, vis-a-vis Ukraine conflict that relations with Russia are now almost at an all time low. So, on the one hand, I think, German policy and EU policy has been a provocation. Nonetheless, I think that the Russian reaction to the sanctions in particular has been tough, but at the same time measured. So in my view, Russia is no immediate security threat to Germany. Categorically not."
Germany Cannot Afford Rearmament
Not only is Germany's justification for rearmament in question but also the nation's ability to afford it, according to Beck. German industry is in a dire state as a result of the government's policies, he stressed.
"Germany currently finds itself in what is probably the most serious economic crisis since the Second World War," Beck said. "The government's policies (…) are affecting all leading branches of German industry, which is suffering from high inflation, lack of qualified labor, bureaucracy and high tax levels. As a result, our exports have declined significantly. So we are in crisis, and German industry, which has always been the backbone of German prosperity, in particular, is in crisis."
He listed three major reasons for the new talk of militarization:
First, the German government's energy and climate change policy;
Second, unprecedented migration into Germany from outside Europe of unskilled workers and the astronomical cost to German public finances;
Third, Germany's policies on Ukraine and sanctions imposed on the Russian economy.
Berlin's decision to follow Washington's lead and slap sweeping sanctions on Russia has backfired on Germans on a much greater scale than on any of their Russian counterparts, according to the politician.
"In my view, Germany is in no fit state economically and financially to embark upon a massive rearmament program," Beck said. "If the German government seriously did so, the consequence would be a further significant worsening of the economic crisis. The only way to finance such rearmament would be through a complete reversal of all the other policies and massive remigration of migrants from Germany. The government has given no indication that it is prepared to do so. In other words, I think these declarations are probably largely symbolic. Germany simply cannot afford it."
Europeans Don't Want to Fight Against Russia
The majority of Germans are not worried about a military threat from Russia, according to Beck, raising doubts as to whether Pistorius' militarization plan would gain any popular traction in Germany and other European states.
"Diplomacy should be the West's weapons of choice in its relations with Russia, not more armaments," Geoffrey Roberts, emeritus professor of history at University College Cork, Ireland and a leading British scholar on Soviet diplomatic and military history, told Sputnik, stressing that Europeans have zero appetite for a major war with Russia.
"This bellicose rhetoric is part of a campaign by Western hardliners to further militarize Western states and societies, their aim being to prolong the Ukraine war for as long as possible and to create a permanent confrontation with Russia. Predictions of future war with Russia heighten existing tensions and solidify a mindset in which military power is seen as the solution to political problems," Roberts continued.
Confrontation between Russia and NATO is fraught with serious risks and is "far more dangerous than anything that happened during the Cold war," according to the professor.
"During the Soviet-Western Cold war there were many proxy wars and conflicts but nothing comparable in scope, scale and intensity to what is happening in Ukraine," Roberts noted, referring to the West's ongoing proxy conflict in Eastern Europe which involves NATO's Special Forces, weapons, intelligence, military training and sabotage techniques.
"Western hardliners have whipped up an atmosphere of hysteria that could spread violence to other sections of the front-line between NATO and Russia. There is an urgent need for Western governments to heed popular calls for peace and a security settlement with Russia that will avert this new cold war – a conflict that could lead to catastrophe," the professor concluded.
Moscow is closely the tone of European political discourse, warning against provocative rhetoric. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted on Tuesday that many other European countries than Germany have made statements about a "threat" posed by Russia. Earlier in January, Pistorius claimed that Russia could attack a NATO country "one day."
"Now all European capitals are racing to declare an ephemeral danger that allegedly comes from Russia," Peskov told reporters. He added that Europe has already invested heavily in the Ukraine conflict, but now see that their plan "failed" and the economic situation wass "getting difficult."
