How Biden's LNG Export Suspension Could Help Russia's Energy Trade With EU & China
© Sputnik / Sergei Krasnoukhov
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US President Joe Biden has temporarily paused new export approvals for liquefied natural gas (LNG). How could Washington's move backfire on energy trade?
It appears that Joe Biden has given in to pressure from environmentalists ahead of the 2024 presidential elections, as he hit the pause button on LNG exports.
According to the Biden administration, the Department of Energy (DOE) will now review applications to export the commodity through the lens of the climate change agenda.
Critics warn that Biden's "impulsive" decision to restrict the sale of LNG abroad would give the supply chains the shivers and would backfire on Washington's European allies.
They have become increasingly reliant on US gas following their energy decoupling with Moscow over the Ukraine conflict and subsequent sabotage attack on Russia's Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022 by unknown perpetrators — believed to be the US and Norway, as per Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh.
"American entrepreneurs think that this will all be such a temporary phenomenon," Stanislav Mitrakhovich, leading expert of the National Energy Security Foundation and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Sputnik.
"They believe that when the election campaign is over – the elections will be in November – it will again be possible to obtain new permits for gas exports," Mitrakhovich said. "And if Trump is president, then even more so: permissions will be given. Because Trump and a significant part of the leadership of the Republican Party have the point of view that traditional energy is not some kind of evil, it is a normal part of the economy, and moreover, it should be used to the maximum both to bolster the economy and achieve foreign policy goals."
However, when it comes to European politicians and businesses, they should feel worried, Mitrakhovich warned.
"For Europe, it makes sense to think that even short-term restrictions on the issuance of new export licenses indicate that the United States is not a reliable partner, as it could manipulate the rules of the game in the field of gas trade – which are fundamentally important to Europe – to reach its internal political goals," the commentatir said. "We [Russia] should probably take this into account when considering plans for the energy sector in Europe."
Mitrakhovich drew attention to the fact that despite energy sanctions slapped on Russia by Washington and its allies, Russian LNG exports had substantially increased in 2022 compared with 2021. In 2023 the growth was more modest, but stable. The Yaman LNG project has proven to be highly efficient and convenient for transporting the super-chilled fuel to Europe.
19 November 2023, 11:00 GMT
Last August, the European media admitted that the Old Continent's purchases of Russian LNG have seen a 39.5 percent surge compared to pre-Ukraine conflict levels. Furthermore, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a global think tank, pointed out in November that "about 21 percent of Russian LNG currently received by EU ports would not be affected by the bloc’s aim to be independent of Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027," citing the REPowerEU plan.
"There are countries like Belgium that show a very large percentage increase in imports of Russian LNG," the expert continued. "But in fact, Belgium is a country, although it is economically developed, they do not have enough industrial capacity to consume all this gas. And, accordingly, it is no secret to anyone that when liquefied gas comes to Belgium and is then regasified, it reaches Germany through the gas pipeline system from Belgium. That is, Germany, despite the fact that it stated that it does not consume Russian gas, Russian gas molecules that reach Belgium and further to Germany, are actually consumed by Germany."
As Biden flip-flops on his green agenda, increasing oil production while cutting gas exports, it would be far more logical for Europe to maintain energy cooperation with Russia, Mitrakhovich argued. He lamented that energy trade has become heavily politicized in Europe, much to the detriment of the continent which sees the economic slowdown, de-industrialization and diminishing production due to energy uncertainty and volatile prices.
"For people who are directly involved in business, everything here, of course, is obvious that it would be much more rational to work with Russia than to depend on America, where there is a risk of government regulation of one thing or another, which could at least limit gas supplies in the future," the expert explained. "And there are risks that gas may be delivered to another country where they will pay more for it. For a company that consumes gas in Europe, this is obvious. This is obvious to the top managers of this company. But there is a boundary between the point of view of this top manager and that of the German chancellor of Germany, or the prime minister of Italy, or the head of the European Commission."
20 August 2023, 06:08 GMT
'China Should Think Twice About Relying on US LNG'
Meanwhile, Biden's abrupt decision concerning US LNG imports could indirectly facilitate Russia's negotiations with China on the Power of Siberia-2, a proposed pipeline to bring natural gas from the Yamal peninsula fields in western Siberia to China, the pundit said.
"In this situation, it would be rational for China to play it safe and have a pipeline that comes from Russia, passes through Mongolia, which is friendly to both Russia and China, and does not have the risks associated with transporting gas by sea," said Mitrakhovich. "Let alone the possibility that by 2025 there may be an escalation of the conflict over the Taiwan Island and other issues. In this case, in general, we will have to talk about the cessation of Chinese-American trade. Most likely, Australia will stop supplying gas. Relatively speaking, it will be difficult for China to purchase gas from the Middle East, because the Americans can use their naval capabilities to block these supplies."
Presently, China receives increasing amounts of natural gas through Russia's Power of Siberia pipeline. Last month, Gazprom revealed on its Telegram account that "on December 23, [the energy company] set a new historical record for daily gas supplies to China. China's request for gas supplies via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline again exceeded the daily contractual obligations. Gazprom supplied all the requested volumes."
"China sees that American LNG producers are hostages of ongoing political games, both foreign and domestic," Mitrakhovich noted, expressing hope that Beijing will accelerate decision-making process with regard to Russia's Power of Siberia-2.
