Hamas 3-Stage Truce Plan Hanging in Balance Because of Israel
© AFP 2023 / Roberto Schmidt
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Hamas has reportedly proposed a 135-day truce and hostage swap, as well as Israeli troops' withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. The deal could pave the way to an end of the war. Will peace be given a chance?
Palestinian militant group Hamas is seeking a four-and-a-half-month truce during which hostages would be released and an agreement to cease hostilities could be reached, a source familiar with the negotiations told Reuters. The group also requested the release of 1,500 prisoners from Israeli jails.
According to the report, Hamas' offer came in response to a proposal sent by Qatari and Egyptian mediators with US and Israeli spy chiefs' backing. While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that a compromise is possible, the Netanyahu government noted that the details of the Hamas response were being "thoroughly evaluated by the officials involved in the negotiations" with some Israeli officials reportedly debating whether to reject the deal or demand modifications.
"What Hamas' proposal is basically, what Hamas demands after the horrific massacre that they carried out against Israel on October 7th, is that they would be given, in fact, immunity if not even reward," Professor Meir Litvak, a leading Israeli expert on Hamas and principal research fellow at the Dayan Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, told Sputnik.
"Their demands mean that they will be given the control of Gaza. They will be able to prepare immediately after this ceasefire to prepare the next attack against Israel. No sane Israeli will accept such a demand, and certainly not this government, which I am not a supporter of," Litvak continued.
In addition, the release of thousands of prisoners, including those who have killed many civilians in the past, will give "another boost to Hamas," according to the professor.
Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University, Qatar, in turn, argued that Hamas' ceasefire offer is quite logical given that it is the only way out of the current massacre in the Gaza Strip.
"Hamas has been calling for a ceasefire for a long time due to the extent of the carnage and destruction that is ongoing," Kamrava told Sputnik. "One of the things we see is that the extent of the ethnic cleansing that is unfolding in Palestine, is, by far, surpassing all assumptions, not expectations, but assumptions. And Israel is behaving in a way that now we have more than 27,000 Palestinians dead. And so as a result of the extent of the destruction, it is not surprising that Hamas is calling for an end to the hostilities."
Hamas is not the only actor who is seeking the cessation of hostilities, according to the professor. For instance, Qatar is seeking to uphold its position as an influential Middle Eastern broker and has an incentive to ensure the negotiations move forward and succeed.
The Biden administration is also keen on the success of negotiations because of the impending American elections, continued Kamrava. "The longer that the war in Gaza drags on, the more direct are likely to be its consequences for the American presidential election," he stressed.
"So everyone except for Israel appears to have an incentive for a cessation of hostilities," the professor said. "[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu is subject to two pressures. On the one hand, there's pressure on the Netanyahu cabinet from the right flank that wants to continue and expand the scope of the war. We have heard of these announcements, for example, about the expulsion of Palestinians using nuclear bombs. These are by members of Netanyahu's own cabinet. And so he has got his, on the one hand, subject to pressure from the right. The other pressure, which isn't as extreme, but nonetheless important, is pressure from those who want an immediate release of the hostages."
Under the current circumstances it appears that the Middle Eastern players are moving steadily towards signing a new deal between Israel and Hamas, believes Ayman Yousef, professor in political sciences and international relations at the Arab-American University in Palestine.
While Hamas' options have shrunk during the months-long conflict, Israel doesn't have many options, either, per Yousef.
"Israel is in a real crisis - no achievements on the ground, Israeli army failed to free any Israeli hostages or prisoners kept by the resistance group in Gaza," the political scientist said. "And there are certainly pressures from the Israeli army on the political leadership in Israel to go for a kind of ceasefire. The tensions and the internal contradictions, the internal infighting within the Israeli leadership, Netanyahu is trying to balance between the cabinet in the Council of Ministers on one side and the War Council on the other hand. So a lot of the pressures are mounting on Netanyahu at this stage, internally and externally, and even from the United States, from many European countries."
1 February, 14:30 GMT
The professor pointed out that both Hamas and Israel are now under mounting pressure from external powers. "The idea of exercising pressure on both sides really is a new approach in negotiations," he said, citing Qatar and Egypt's pressure on Hamas and Washington's pressure on Israel.
Meanwhile, the US appears to get bogged down in regional conflicts over its support for Tel Aviv and the Netanyahu government, according to Yousef.
"At this stage, the United States is really more involved now in the Middle East affairs, they are in direct confrontation with Iran, whether it is in Iraq, in Syria, in Yemen," he said.
The Biden administration may see Netanyahu's unwillingness to back down as an effort to undermine Biden's odds ahead of the November elections, the professor suggested.
"So Netanyahu has more support towards the Republicans and the Republican candidate, Trump. And in this way, the whole issue is coming together in order to put the pressure on both sides to sign or to agree on a kind of a humanitarian ceasefire," Yousef concluded.
