How US May Weaponize Confusion Around Nuclear Capable F-16 in Ukraine
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The Russian Foreign Ministry has once again warned that Russia will treat F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine as nuclear-capable weapon systems, regardless of their model, and will consider their deployment a deliberate provocation.
Ukraine is slated to receive its first F-16s later this year, with Ukrainian pilots undergoing training to operate the fighter jets.
Moscow has consistently cautioned against their deployment, raising concerns that the warplanes could be equipped to carry nuclear bombs.
"The primary and most likely nuclear weapon that the F-16 can carry is the B61[-12] gravity bomb – which has been continually maintained and improved for both accuracy and reduced yield, so smaller than its predecessors but able to be guided," retired US Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Karen Kwiatkowski, a former analyst for the US Department of Defense, told Sputnik.
"As of November 2020, the B61-12 was in production, with the program to be completed in 2026, and destined to serve through the 2040s. The F-16 C and D models can carry this payload," she added.
The B61-12 is the latest version of the B61 family of US air-launched nuclear gravity bombs which was developed to enhance nuclear capabilities of the US Air Force.
The weapon can be carried by B-2A, F-15E, F-16C/D, F-16 MLU, F-35 and the Anglo-German-Italian Panavia Tornado. The prototype B-21 stealth bomber is also designed to carry the bomb.
The first B61-12 nuclear free-fall bomb developmental test unit was dropped by the F-15E at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada on July 1, 2015.
Flight tests at Sandia National Laboratories’ Tonopah Test Range in Nevada in March were the last in a series designed to demonstrate the refurbished B61-12’s compatibility with the U.S. Air Force’s F-15E Strike Eagle jet fighter.
On December 13, 2023, The War Zone (TWZ) published a photograph of an F-16 at Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands, seemingly carrying a training version of the B61-12 under its wing.
According to the website, Volkel is one of several bases in Europe hosting US B61s. In October 2022, Politico reported that the US had expedited the deployment of B61-12s to NATO bases in Europe, lending credence to Russia's security concerns.
Belgium, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands have all pledged some of their aging fleets of F-16s to the Kiev regime.
"If the F-16s are to be flown by Ukrainian pilots and manned by Ukrainian ground crews, they would not be allowed access to nuclear weapons by any NATO country," Kwiatkowski argued.
The former Pentagon analyst pointed out that an F-16 fighter carrying a nuclear weapon could easily be identified, as the B-61-12 is longer than the 500lb and 1,000lb bombs typically carried by the jet fighter.
"There is imagery out there to help identify these armaments, and intelligence agencies around the world monitor movement and deployment of nuclear payloads," she said.
"F-16s delivered to Ukraine introduce risk, and also make little sense from a defensive perspective," Kwiatkowski stressed, offering three different scenarios being played out by NATO and the US in Ukraine.
First, the delivery of European older F-16 models is directly designed to clear old inventory and create new markets for US weapons systems in and out of NATO.
"Second, the messaging around the F-16 is such that it has become a red line for Russia, and as such, sending these platforms to Ukraine moves the battlefront to the western side of Ukraine, increases the damage to Ukraine prior to an inevitable peace, and further creates unwarranted fear in Europe. This may be the main reason for the F-16 'gift'," she said.
Third, while the F-16 A and B models, common in European air forces, cannot carry the B-61 nuclear bombs as designed, they can serve as sacrificial decoys to purposely escalate the conflict, according to Kwiatkowski.
She also did not rule US President Joe Biden's administration using a new military crisis in Europe as a pretext to delay or suspend US elections — where the geriatric leader faces defeat by his 2020 opponent Donald Trump.
Even though the latter scenario seems outlandish, the Biden administration previously committed an act of war against a NATO ally – Germany – with the CIA- and Pentagon-orchestrated destruction of Nord Stream pipelines only 18 months ago, Kwiatkowski pointed out, referring to Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh's bombshell article.
"None of the decision-makers in that crime have been replaced, all still influence the administration – and the political and combat situation for the US vis-a-vis Ukraine is far worse than before," Kwiatkowski warned.
"To save their influence and their own hides as we approach an election that looks to overturn the Biden administration, confusion around F-16s and nukes could very well be used to cover the actual use of a nuclear weapon somewhere in or near Ukraine and its former territories," she concluded.
