Why France's Snap Election Proves EU's Warmongering Agenda Flopped
10:05 GMT 10.07.2024 (Updated: 10:42 GMT 10.07.2024)
© AP Photo / Charles Platiau
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Despite surviving the runoff vote, Emmanuel Macron sustained a crushing and unexpected defeat during the snap election, Fabien Chalandon, French political commentator and writer, told Sputnik. What's more, the parliament's new composition may put the brakes on Macron's bellicosity.
The outcome of the snap election in the French National Assembly has left no party with a majority, leading to uncertainty regarding the formation of a coalition. This raises the question of whether the left-wing and centrist parties will be able to collaborate effectively in order to establish a functional parliament.
"This is the key question," Fabien Chalandon, chevalier of the French Legion d'Honneur, investor, and writer, told Sputnik. "No party has any majority, and any government can be deposed at any time by a combination of the two other groups. The parliament is therefore in a gridlock and ungovernable. In addition, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) is a coalition of small parties all deeply opposed on any subject, including Ukraine, and which have only one common ground: their hate of the National Rally (RN), which cannot provide a common set of practical objectives for an effective governing alliance."
The NFP, a broad left-wing coalition which brought together Socialists, Communists, Greens and the hardline leftist France Unbowed Party (La France Insoumise), was hastily founded on June 10 with the sole aim of defeating the right-wing RN in the snap legislative election.
According to the commentator, the likelihood of the NFP coalition passing the test of time is "remote as it may explode on the issue of loss of real income, when finally politicians admit that the bulk of the current impoverishment of French middle and poor class has been stoked by inflation directly derived from the Ukrainian conflict."
Macron's Bellicosity Backfired During Elections
Meanwhile, it appears that the new composition of the parliament could disrupt French President Emmanuel Macron's "tour de force" for European leadership.
Over the past several months, Macron has made a series of controversial statements, ranging from putting NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine to doubling the EU budget and promoting the idea of a "major European loan" to finance the bloc's rearmament effort.
Macron's sudden transformation into a "Ukraine hawk" – given that France has been ranked 15th in terms of military aid to Kiev – raised questions in the European mainstream press. According to the Spectator, one of the causes of Macron's bellicosity was his desire to "embarrass" the National Rally in the European elections, "not to mention their predicted victory in the 2027 presidential race."
The French president's scheme appeared to have boomeranged. His Renaissance party secured just 15.2 percent of the vote during the EU parliamentary elections last month, while the National Rally got a whopping 31.5 percent.
In the snap election, announced by Macron after the humiliating defeat, the centrist-liberal Ensemble (Together) party survived by pure luck and due to its unholy formal alliance with Les Republicains (LR) and the NFP to obstruct "at all costs" the National Rally in the second round, according to Chalandon.
"Compared to the 2022 elections, the Macron presidential party 'Together' lost 100 seats to 168," the political commentator noted.
"This [snap] election is therefore a second crushing defeat for M. Macron," the pundit said. "Macron did not expect such a damning result after the first round. In fact, this snap election is overwhelmingly portrayed in the French press and social media as a 'childish' decision following the RN tsunami during the previous European elections."
The election outcome would continue to undermine Macron's warmongering posture, including his push for rearmament and increased military support to Ukraine, according to the commentator.
"On Ukraine, the NFP is clearly against the EU and EU support of Ukraine. But so is the Unbowed France Party… Any proposal for additional funding to Ukraine may not be approved if these two coalesce to block it, even if they do not coordinate," Chalandon said.
While the EU's bureaucracy could circumvent the legislative gridlock in its member states by stealthily boosting its funding to Ukraine within its general budget, the crux of the matter is that Europeans and especially young people across the continent have increasingly started to realize the collective West's hypocrisy with regard to Ukraine, according to the pundit.
Chalandon notes that Europeans are steadily recognizing the West's 20-year provocations against Russia, as well as the sabotage of the Istanbul agreement in April 2022 led by the US and UK.
"Moreover, the cause of the recent sharp decline of Europe’s purchasing power is starting to be attributed to the Ukrainian conflict, so far, a taboo subject among politicians. Ukraine’s war and open-ended funding will not continue unabated and may progressively appear for what it is: the main cause of Europe’s recent economic downfall," the commentator emphasized.
How Could US Political Debacle Affect Europe's Ukraine Policy
Nonetheless, the EU elites are unwilling to change their stance on the Ukraine conflict, especially given their political dependency on their peers in Washington.
However, US neocons have recently found themselves on the horns of a dilemma given that their major "pro-war" presidential candidate Joe Biden appears to be "unsellable" to American voters, as Wall Street analyst Charles Ortel noted in an earlier interview with Sputnik.
"The key factor which could affect French and Europe’s attitude in the Ukrainian conflict is if M. Trump wins the US election and decides to force Ukraine to negotiate by interrupting its military aid," Chalandon said, referring to the Republican frontrunner's plan to stop the fighting and look into peace negotiations.
The political commentator noted, however, that despite Trump's high-powered numbers across US nationwide polls, his victory is not a done deal given the lawsuits brought forward by his political opponents.
Likewise, the Biden camp is also teetering in the balance as the Democratic Party is waging a behind the scenes battle over a possible replacement for the aging Biden. This potential change could allegedly shift Washington's attitude on the Ukraine conflict.
"Since European efforts towards Ukraine cannot survive a withdrawal by the US, Europe and France will be left with no other option than to cave in," the French political commentator remarked.
Chalandon concluded that if a new US context were to arise, Europe's determination to carry on with the ongoing military "solution" to the Ukrainian conflict would amount to nothing more than empty posturing.
In parallel to his investment banking career, Chalandon co-founded and ran a French political think tank, Fondation Concorde, and was awarded the French Legion d'Honneur in 2000 and wrote for leading French newspapers on political issues. His father, Albin Chalandon, served as minister of various governments under President Charles de Gaulle and Georges Pompidou and then minister of justice between 1986 and 1988 in a Jacques Chirac-led government under then President Francois Mitterrand.
