https://sputnikglobe.com/20240705/natos-ukraine-hawks-go-down-in-flames-as-proxy-war-against-russia-continues-1119249302.html
NATO's Ukraine 'Hawks' Go Down in Flames as Proxy War Against Russia Continues
NATO's Ukraine 'Hawks' Go Down in Flames as Proxy War Against Russia Continues
Sputnik International
NATO governments stubbornly refuse to start negotiations on ending the conflict in Ukraine, despite the fact that they lack the resources to prolong their proxy war with Russia, lose their political positions and risk further public discontent, Alex Thompson, a British analyst with UK Column, told Sputnik.
2024-07-05T13:15+0000
2024-07-05T13:15+0000
2024-07-07T13:30+0000
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As NATO prepares for its anniversary summit on July 12, three major Ukraine "hawks" - US President Joe Biden, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak - are facing political defeat.The British Tories lost elections to the Labour on July 4; Macron, after losing the first round of the French snap vote, is going to cross swords with the National Rally on July 7. President Joe Biden is urged to drop out by the Dems after the debate debacle with Donald Trump.Volodymyr Zelensky, whose five-year term as president expired on May 20, is also on thin ice as reports of his possible replacement by Ukraine's Western allies continue to surface.While there seems to be no consensus in the West on who could fill Zelensky's shoes amid Ukraine's retreat, NATO's stubborn insistence on prolonging the conflict at all costs is at odds with economic and political realities in the US and Europe.This spring, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a stronger EU defense, proposing to double the EU budget and peddling the idea of a "great European loan" to finance the bloc's rearmament efforts."Macron’s call for joint bonds and increased borrowing by Ukraine’s European allies is a tacit admission that Eurozone governments lack financial sovereignty because of the coordination of their budgets and debts," the pundit highlighted.Why is West Ignoring Reality?The Western leadership's ignorance could be caused by the fact that "NATO member states’ chains of military aid authorization are now devoid of almost any 'old Russia hands' who, for instance, speak Russian or have a long-term background in understanding the state of Russian society," according to Thomson.At the same time, the expert does not rule out the possibility that Western elites are deliberately ignoring the discontent of their populations, the economic slowdown facilitated by anti-Russian sanctions, and the protracted proxy war in Ukraine in order to overhaul their respective economies under the slogan "Build Back Better" - something they largely failed to do during the COVID pandemic."Given UK Column’s research over the past decade, I am perfectly prepared to posit that the couple of hundred people who run the various Western economies would positively welcome both of these ways of breaking the economy to recreate it in their own image; these are both plans that have been spoken about in Western élite circles for many decades," the UK Column analyst said."The British military, in particular, has openly spoken in the past couple of years about there being no binary state of war or peace any more, and the British security state regards public figures who are insufficiently hostile to Russia as being threats to domestic order, harassing and detaining some of them under counter-terrorism legislation," he added.Swiss Ukraine Summit & Putin's Peace DealIn light of this, the analyst doesn't see the June Swiss summit on Ukraine as a genuine peace effort, but only as a way "to placate the Zelensky government, which has said more openly than ever that it can no longer face a protracted war.Thomson went on to say that he does not trust Switzerland's good faith as a peace broker, nor does he believe that Bern is truly neutral in the Ukraine conflict."The absence of almost all the current and potential members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) indicates that nations even vaguely within Russia’s economic and military sphere had no confidence in the bona fides of the Swiss summit. Even Hungary, a Western neighbor of Ukraine that is a member of NATO and the EU, only attended at the last minute," Thomson added.The day before the summit began, Russian President Vladimir Putin presented Ukraine with his own peace proposal based on realities on the ground. Putin said Ukraine would have to withdraw from the entire territory of the Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, which voted to join Russia, and renounce Kiev's goal of joining NATO before peace talks could begin.
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ukraine war, nato summit in july, elections in the uk, rishi sunak, french elections, emmanuel macron, joe biden asked to drop out, volodymyr zelensky, west's proxy war against russia
ukraine war, nato summit in july, elections in the uk, rishi sunak, french elections, emmanuel macron, joe biden asked to drop out, volodymyr zelensky, west's proxy war against russia
NATO's Ukraine 'Hawks' Go Down in Flames as Proxy War Against Russia Continues
13:15 GMT 05.07.2024 (Updated: 13:30 GMT 07.07.2024) NATO governments stubbornly refuse to start negotiations on ending the conflict in Ukraine, despite the fact that they lack the resources to prolong their proxy war with Russia, lose their political positions and risk further public discontent, Alex Thomson, a British analyst with UK Column, told Sputnik.
As NATO prepares for its anniversary summit on July 12, three major Ukraine "hawks" - US President Joe Biden, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak - are facing political defeat.
The
British Tories lost elections to the Labour on July 4;
Macron, after losing the first round of the French snap vote, is going to cross swords with the National Rally on July 7.
President Joe Biden is urged to drop out by the Dems after the debate debacle with Donald Trump.
Volodymyr Zelensky, whose five-year
term as president expired on May 20, is also on thin ice as reports of his possible replacement by Ukraine's Western allies continue to surface.
"There is a sizeable and growing contingent in the mainstream politics of both Britain and Continental European countries that says openly that Zelensky is an unsuitable man to occupy his role," Alex Thomson, an analyst with UK Column, an independent news organization founded in 2006, told Sputnik.
While there seems to be no consensus in the West on who could fill Zelensky's shoes amid Ukraine's retreat, NATO's stubborn insistence on prolonging the conflict at all costs is at odds with economic and political realities in the US and Europe.
"I am not an economic analyst but it is apparent to me that neither the US, nor the EU, nor the UK would be able to sustain a war footing for more than a year without catastrophic loss of currency value and massive fusions of defense industry across the West," Thomson pointed out.
This spring, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a stronger EU defense, proposing to double the
EU budget and peddling the idea of a "great European loan" to finance the bloc's rearmament efforts.
"Macron’s call for joint bonds and increased borrowing by Ukraine’s European allies is a tacit admission that Eurozone governments lack financial sovereignty because of the coordination of their budgets and debts," the pundit highlighted.
"Given the French election results, there is no chance that the government of France in particular will be able to sell a long-term proxy (or direct) war with Russia to its population. A sharply increased refusal to support this aim is also seen in Germany (hence Berlin's musings about reintroducing conscription)," he continued.
Why is West Ignoring Reality?
The Western leadership's ignorance could be caused by the fact that "NATO member states’ chains of military aid authorization are now devoid of almost any 'old Russia hands' who, for instance, speak Russian or have a long-term background in understanding the state of Russian society," according to Thomson.
"Bureaucrats and politicians who take the decisions to send Ukraine more devastating weaponry must be assumed, unless the opposite is apparent in an individual case, to have believed the Western legacy media’s assertions that Russia is a spent force in conventional warfare," he said, also referring to NATO's recent nod to Ukraine's use of its weapons to hit targets deep inside Russia.
At the same time, the expert does not rule out the possibility that Western elites are deliberately ignoring the discontent of their populations, the economic slowdown facilitated by anti-Russian sanctions, and the protracted proxy war in Ukraine in order to overhaul their respective economies under the slogan "Build Back Better" - something they largely failed to do during the COVID pandemic.
"Given UK Column’s research over the past decade, I am perfectly prepared to posit that the couple of hundred people who run the various Western economies would positively welcome both of these ways of breaking the economy to recreate it in their own image; these are both plans that have been spoken about in Western élite circles for many decades," the UK Column analyst said.
Therefore, "Western governments are all too glad of presenting the specter of 'the biggest war in Europe since 1945' to cow their own populations into shutting up about their discontents, on pain of supposedly treasonous dissent and of 'misinformation'," according to Thomson.
"The British military, in particular, has openly spoken in the past couple of years about there being no binary state of war or peace any more, and the British security state regards public figures who are insufficiently hostile to Russia as being threats to domestic order, harassing and detaining some of them under counter-terrorism legislation," he added.
Swiss Ukraine Summit & Putin's Peace Deal
In light of this, the analyst doesn't see the June
Swiss summit on Ukraine as a genuine peace effort, but only as a way "to placate the Zelensky government, which has said more openly than ever that it can no longer face a protracted war.
Thomson went on to say that he does not trust Switzerland's good faith as a peace broker, nor does he believe that Bern is truly neutral in the Ukraine conflict.
"As for the participants in the negotiations, it is inconceivable that they are sincere while they as a bloc (NATO) and also in some cases individually are dropping the pretence and admitting that their weapons, crewed by their nationals, are being fired from Ukrainian territory into Russia," he remarked reflecting on the event.
"The absence of almost all the current and potential
members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (
SCO) indicates that nations even vaguely within Russia’s economic and military sphere had no confidence in the bona fides of the Swiss summit. Even Hungary, a Western neighbor of Ukraine that is a member of NATO and the EU, only attended at the last minute," Thomson added.
The day before the summit began, Russian President Vladimir Putin presented Ukraine with his own
peace proposal based on realities on the ground. Putin said Ukraine would have to withdraw from the entire territory of the Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, which voted to join Russia, and renounce Kiev's goal of joining NATO before peace talks could begin.
"I take seriously the reading that Putin’s proposal on the eve of the Swiss summit presented the most generous terms that the Russian government has on offer to Ukraine," the British expert said. Adding, "any subsequent proposal, reflecting what is almost certain to be Russian territorial gains in Ukraine meanwhile, is likely to offer less of the Black Sea littoral to Ukraine and could also demand the acceptance of transfer of certain north-eastern Ukrainian Russophone territories to Russia."
