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Will European Powers Return to Afghanistan and Recognize the Taliban?

© Sputnik / Mikhail AlaeddinId Gah Mosque (Eid Gah Mosque), in Kabul
Id Gah Mosque (Eid Gah Mosque), in Kabul - Sputnik International, 1920, 17.07.2024
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Several European countries could reopen their embassies in Afghanistan — which would mean recognizing the Taliban*, Bloomberg reported, quoting unnamed sour. What is behind the apparent trend?
Italian intelligence services reportedly conducted a "reconnaissance mission" in Kabul in the past few weeks, according to the website.
While Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani was quoted by the online publication as saying said that Rome's ambassador currently assigned to Doha, Qatar, had visited Kabul.
France, Germany and the UK in turn deny having plans to reopen their embassies in Kabul after the hastily withdrawal from the Central Asian state in 2021.
"After the disastrous retreat of the US, a certain European interest in Afghanistan has been reborn, an interest currently mainly oriented towards the reconstruction of the country," said Tiberio Graziani, chairman of Rome-based think tank Vision and Global Trends. "Rome and Madrid aspire to play a greater role in international dynamics."
"In particular, Rome shows a particular interest in Central Asia," Tajani said. "Afghanistan borders three countries in the Central Asian region: Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan."
"Italy therefore has every interest in facilitating relations between these countries and Afghanistan, both for security and economic reasons," the pundit added. "Furthermore, ever since the US left the scene, Italy has activated, albeit with difficulty, actions aimed at maintaining an opening with Kabul."
Graziani believes that rapprochement between Kabul and European capitals is possible, arguing that Europe wants to draw Afghanistan away from Russia and China's sphere of interest.
In May, Moscow signaled it is considering delisting the Taliban as a terrorist organization, paving the way for the recognition of the new Afghan government and deepening economic, political and security ties with the country.
П/к запрещенного в РФ движения Талибан / Ситуация в Афганистане после смены власти - Sputnik International, 1920, 28.05.2024
Analysis
Why Time is Ripe to Delist Taliban as Banned Entity
The movement maintains "real power" in Afghanistan, and recognizing that fact reflects the reality on the ground, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at the time.
Earlier this year, China became the first country to accredit a Taliban-nominated official as Afghanistan's Ambassador to Beijing. International observers noted that the move was still short of formal diplomatic recognition, but showed a trend of growing engagement between Kabul and Beijing.
While the EU is allegedly considering returning to Afghanistan, the US is unlikely to make any moves in this direction before the November election, according to Graziani.
"We will have to wait until the first months of next year, after the new US president, who will take office on January 20, has defined the team of his advisors and appointed the main directors of the various agencies," the pundit concluded.
*Under UN sanctions for terrorist activities.
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