‘October Surprise’: Game-Changer to Turn the Tables in US Presidential Race
© AP Photo / Alex Brandon
Subscribe
The US media defines an ‘October surprise’, a term coined by Reagan campaign manager William Casey in 1980, as a game-changing event ahead of Election Day. But can a bombshell really mean victory for one candidate?
What are the most famous October surprises?
• Founding Fathers' dirty campaign: The first dates back to aggressive smear campaigns between then-president John Adams and his rival and former vice-president Thomas Jefferson in 1800. Political pamphleteer and journalist James Callender, allegedly hired by Jefferson, launched a print campaign against Adams before the election, tipping the balance.
• Failed hostage deal: Jimmy Carter's failure to strike a hostage deal with Iran cost him re-election in 1980. The release of US hostages taken during the Islamic Revolution of 1979, was one of the pressing national issues during the 1980 election. In 2023, the New York Times and the Intercept alleged that the Reagan campaign manager and later CIA director William Casey, plotted to convince Tehran to not release hostages before the election, depriving Carter of the political capital. The hostages were released on January 20, 1981, just minutes after Ronald Reagan's inauguration.
President Jimmy Carter, claiming success for his human rights policies, is applauded by aides Zbigniew Brzezinski and Anne Wexler in Washington, Dec. 6, 1978
© AP Photo / Harvey Georges
• Osama bin Laden tape and George W. Bush: Three years after the September 11 attacks, a video message by al-Qaeda* leader Osama bin Laden boosted then-president George W. Bush’s election odds. In a tape broadcast by Al Jazeera on October 29, 2004, bin Laden acknowledged responsibility the 9/11 attack for the first time and threatened the US with new attacks. A poll two days later gave Bush a six-point lead over his Democratic rival John Kerry. The Telegraph reported at the time that the tape may have helped the president win another term as it "sparked a sharp final round of argument over which candidate can best defeat terrorism."
President George W. Bush (C) names Democratic former senator Chuck Robb (L) and former judge Laurence Silberman (R) as co-chairs of an independent commission to examine pre-war intelligence on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. February 6, 2004, Washington, DC.
© AFP 2023 / Paul J. Richards
• Access Hollywood Vs. Emailgate: Two October surprises rocked the US in 2016. On October 7, an Access Hollywood tape showing Republican candidate Donald Trump making sexist remarks was leaked, prompting a storm of criticism. But new evidence of Democrat Hillary Clinton’s use of a private server for classified government emails on October 28 eclipsed the Trump tape scandal. "If the election had been on October 27th, I’d be your president," Clinton complained to CNN in 2017.
In this Oct. 9, 2016, file photo Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton speak during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis.
© AP Photo / Patrick Semansky
• The "Laptop from hell": If the story of Hunter Biden's abandoned had not been suppressed, it could have been the October surprise of the 2020 race between his father Joe Biden and Trump. Emails, pictures and video files on Hunter's laptop detailing an influence-peddling scheme was reported by the New York Post in mid-October 2020, but immediately blocked by social media and dismissed by 51 US former intel operatives as "Russian disinformation."
President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University, Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020, in Nashville, Tenn.
© AP Photo / Jim Bourg
What’s next?
• The Hill names five possible events which could play either in Trump or Kamala Harris' favor, including the release of damaging tapes, a hurricane, new assassination attempts, another presidential debate and a major military escalation overseas.
*al-Qaeda is a terrorist organization banned in Russia and many other countries.
