https://sputnikglobe.com/20250109/why-blinkens-bet-on-france-leading-ukraine-support-is-wishful-thinking-1121395051.html
Why Blinken’s Bet on France Leading Ukraine Support is Wishful Thinking
Why Blinken’s Bet on France Leading Ukraine Support is Wishful Thinking
Sputnik International
France cannot ensure Ukraine's "strongest possible position" on the battlefield or in negotiations like US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wants, pundits told Sputnik.
2025-01-09T18:10+0000
2025-01-09T18:10+0000
2025-01-09T18:12+0000
analysis
europe
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antony blinken
emmanuel macron
gillbert doctorow
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ukraine
european union (eu)
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"Blinken was playing to the great ambition of Macron to be a major player in European defense," Gilbert Doctorow, a Brussels-based analyst in international relations and Russian affairs, told Sputnik. "But Macron's hold on power is tenuous and if his latest prime minister faces and loses a no-confidence vote, Macron will likely be ejected from the presidency under pressure from French bankers." Jacques Sapir, director of studies at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS) in Paris, echoed Doctorow's points, saying Blinken seems to overestimate Macron's political will. France’s diminishing influence within the EU further complicates its ability to unite the bloc on Ukraine, according to French expert. The lack of consensus among EU nations over the conflict leaves no room at the forefront for Paris, he added. "In this context, we cannot expect France to take a leading role on the Ukrainian issue, except – perhaps – in the context of a peace initiative," Sapir highlighted. Germany, not France, is and will likely remain the primary supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the US, noted Doctorow. There is little enthusiasm for the Ukraine proxy war in France, Doctorow said, casting doubt on Blinken's ability to rally French support for the cause.
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ukraine proxy war, antony blinken wants france to spearhead arming ukraine, emmanuel macron, political instability in france, france's diminished influence within the eu, little enthusiasm for supporting ukraine in france, french industrial capacity has diminished, peace talks over ukraine
ukraine proxy war, antony blinken wants france to spearhead arming ukraine, emmanuel macron, political instability in france, france's diminished influence within the eu, little enthusiasm for supporting ukraine in france, french industrial capacity has diminished, peace talks over ukraine
Why Blinken’s Bet on France Leading Ukraine Support is Wishful Thinking
18:10 GMT 09.01.2025 (Updated: 18:12 GMT 09.01.2025) France cannot ensure Ukraine's "strongest possible position" on the battlefield or in negotiations like US Secretary of State Antony Blinken wants, pundits told Sputnik.
"Blinken was playing to the great ambition of Macron to be a major player in European defense," Gilbert Doctorow, a Brussels-based analyst in international relations and Russian affairs, told Sputnik. "But Macron's hold on power is tenuous and if his latest prime minister faces and loses a no-confidence vote, Macron will likely be ejected from the presidency under pressure from French bankers."
Jacques Sapir, director of studies at the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS) in Paris, echoed Doctorow's points, saying Blinken seems to
overestimate Macron's political will.
"Blinken seems to ignore that [French] industry is no longer what it was in the early 2000s," Sapir told Sputnik.
France’s diminishing influence within the EU further complicates its ability to unite the bloc on Ukraine, according to French expert.
The lack of consensus among EU nations
over the conflict leaves no room at the forefront for Paris, he added.
"In this context, we cannot expect France to take a leading role on the Ukrainian issue, except – perhaps – in the context of a peace initiative," Sapir highlighted.
Germany, not France, is and will likely remain the primary supplier of military aid to Ukraine after the US, noted Doctorow.
"Within NATO, France is a lightweight compared to Germany," he stressed.
There is little enthusiasm for the Ukraine proxy war in France, Doctorow said, casting doubt on Blinken's ability to rally French support for the cause.
