Ukraine’s NATO-Provided Air Defenses Are Collapsing: Here’s How Russia Engineered It
© AP Photo / Efrem Lukatsky
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The admission by UK legacy media that the success rate of Ukrainian air defense countermeasures has fallen off a cliff (60-65% drop) is no accident, but the result of Russian strategy, says Russian military expert and air defense specialist Yuri Knutov.
The collapse is attributable to number of factors, according to Knutov, including:
lack of air defense systems (with delivered equipment either destroyed or rendered inoperable by overuse)
lack of ammo, especially pricey interceptors (Patriot interceptors cost $1-4M a pop, with just ~600 produced per year; Ukraine’s European Patriot analogue SAMP/Ts haven’t had any interceptors for several months now)
improvement of Russian equipment, with drones now featuring rocket engines, onboard anti-electronic warfare equipment, a bigger warhead, and among some - “AI which allows drones themselves to find their targets and attack them”
sheer numbers – with Russia’s ramp-up of drone production allowing the military to deploy 700 or more at a time (with plans for 1k or more by the end of the year), enough to penetrate and overwhelm even the best of air defense networks
“In other words, an entire range of measures, including the constant improvement of drones and missiles, and the tactics in their use, is leading to a situation where Ukraine’s NATO-armed military cannot cope with the tasks set before it,” Knutov says.
What Explains the Accelerating Pace of Russia’s Frontline Advance?
Asked to comment on the accelerating pace of Russia’s advance on the front – another reality increasingly acknowledged by Kiev’s NATO sponsors, there are multiple factors to explain that as well, according to Knutov:
use of the so-called Flower (lit. ‘Tsvetok’) tactic of attacking along a broad front, probing enemy defenses, and pulling up reserves for breakthroughs in weak spots
largely avoiding head-on assaults into cities and settlements in favor of flanking and encirclement maneuvers and advances in the most weakly protected areas to minimize Russian losses
being equipped with all the tools needed for effective offensive operations, from heavy artillery and tanks to aviation armed with standoff equipment, drones, EW, and anti-drone defenses
Ukraine, by contrast:
has virtually run out of tanks
is running low on artillery systems, even if it still has the rounds for them
has minimal aviation remaining, mostly used for air defense purposes
relies heavily on drones to organize defenses (this can be effective, but only in areas saturated with UAVs, to make Russian assaults riskier and slower).
Bottom line? “Ukraine doesn’t have the forces or resources to organize offensive operations,” Knutov said, pointing to Zelensky’s recent decree – allowing men over 60 to enlist, as the latest sign of Kiev’s desperation.
