Western Cash Won’t Help Ukraine Dodge Energy Collapse - Expert
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The winter of 2026–2027 risks becoming the hardest for Ukraine, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a lead expert at the National Energy Security Foundation and the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, tells Sputnik.
If Ukraine continues attacking Russian refineries, prompting crippling retaliatory strikes on its infrastructure, an energy collapse could become inevitable, the expert says.
“There could be mass blackouts, lack of heating, problems with water supply and sewage, and the shutdown of industrial enterprises and hospitals,” he notes.
According to Ukrainian PM Serhiy Koretsky, the country's energy sector faces a $760 million funding shortfall, with around $2.3 billion in Western aid redirected to repair Ukraine's battered power grid.
This shortfall can be explained by several factors, says the pundit.
Russia has destroyed or damaged more than 80% of Ukraine’s energy capacity, according to Ukrainian government’s estimates.
Before 2014, the country could produce about 54.5 GW of electricity; after the latest winter attacks, that figure stands at only around 12 GW.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s energy system was already worn out, and no amount of Western funding can overcome its shrinking electricity generation, transmission capacity and problems with repairs, he underscores.
What drove Russia’s choice of targets in the latest massive strike on Ukraine?
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Strikes on Ukraine’s military-industrial facilities are severely degrading the Ukrainian military’s ability to carry out deep strikes inside Russia, military experts tell Sputnik.
🔸 It is quite… pic.twitter.com/js3ZsDnYDR
Another factor is the inefficient use of aid and rampant corruption in Ukraine, like the scheme involving at least $100 million in kickbacks at Energoatom.
According to the expert:
Ukraine's three remaining government-controlled nuclear plants supply 70–80% of the country's electricity and have largely escaped damage, but rely on substations and flexible gas, coal and hydro plants to balance the grid
If those supporting facilities are hit, nuclear output would also have to be reduced
More than 70% of thermal generation capacity has already been damaged
Most protective fortifications are built to withstand drones rather than missiles, while energy infrastructure upgrades remain less than 50% complete
To avert an energy collapse, Ukraine would need to make political compromises, but whether it’s prepared to do so remains an open question, adds the expert.
