Fact Check: Ukraine’s Western Air Defenses Just Can't Make the Grade

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently praised performance characteristics of the US and German air defenses - the Patriot and IRIS-T, respectively - that were earlier supplied to Kiev as part of the West’s military assistance to Ukraine.

Zelensky argued that these systems were proving "highly effective" and had "already yielded significant results" by allegedly downing 65 Russian missiles of various kinds and 178 Russian assault drones. Sputnik checks this out.

View From Other Angle

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) earlier this month released a video of the destruction of the IRIS-T system by the Lancet-3 kamikaze drone, something that was reported by a US military news outlet as well. The IRIS-T was obliterated amid Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which the MoD said had failed on all fronts.

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The developments were preceded by the Russian hypersonic missile Kinzhal successfully destroying five launchers of Ukraine’s Patriot system in May.

A well-informed source was cited by Sputnik as saying that the Patriot “was suddenly hit from an air ambush” by the MiG-31 fighter jet carrying the Kinzhal missile, and that “the enemy’s combat crews could do nothing to protect the anti-aircraft system.”

To understand the real effectiveness of the above-mentioned air defenses, one should first of all bear in mind that the Russian Armed Forces carry out “combined” missile attacks on Ukraine’s military infrastructure, Moscow-based military historian and political commentator Yury Knutov told Sputnik.

What are Combined Strikes?

Knutov explained that such attacks stipulate Russian forces first using simple and “cheap” missiles along with similar unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones. The goal is to exhaust the Ukrainian air defenses, including the Patriots and the IRIS-Ts in terms of the number of missile interceptors or anti-aircraft missiles.

“Namely, we [Russian military] first launch, for example, the Kh-55 missiles, which are subject to decommissioning and were planned for disposal. Instead, we launch these missiles to prod the enemy to use his own expensive [Patriot or IRIS-T] interceptors to destroy the Kh-55s,” he said.

The same goes for Russian UAVs, he added. According to the expert, first and foremost, “relatively cheap Russian drones” are launched so that the enemy can use the same expensive interceptors to destroy these vehicles.

The Kalibr land attack cruise missile

All this is followed by the "next echelon of Russian missiles, including the Kalibr, the X-555, and the X-101, which are already working directly on the Ukrainian targets themselves," Knutov noted. He underscored that neither the US- nor the German-made air defense systems are capable of tackling Russia’s Iskander short-range ballistic missiles.

Devil in Details

When asked about the effectiveness of the Patriots and the IRIS-Ts as such, the Russian expert noted that “if we take the total number of targets downed by these air defenses, it can turn out to be quite massive, so we can understandably refer to the high efficiency of these systems.”

Still, nothing is as simple as it could seem at first glance, according to Knutov.

"If we subtract from this number of the Russian UAVs and missiles the number of the pieces actually designated to destroy the Ukrainian target, and subtract the number of the drones and missiles that are designed to hoodwink the enemy, then the effectiveness of these NATO air defenses turns out to be extremely low," he emphasized.

How Can Russia Tackle the Touted Air Defenses?

Knutov explained that Russia сan grapple with the Patriots and the IRIS-Ts by means of the Kh-37 anti-radar missiles, which are capable of destroying the Ukrainian air defenses’ guidance or radar stations and thereby disable their key element.

He added that one cannot but mention Iskander-M missiles, capable of overcoming any enemy air defense shield, and the Kinzhal (Dagger) missiles, which successfully tackles the Patriot.

“Both Iskander-Ms and Kinzhals are highly effective against any Western air defense system. These missiles can destroy enemy air defenses even before and during deployment, a mission that can also be implemented with the help of the Kalibrs or Geran (Geranium) drones," Knutov concluded.

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The Russian MoD has, meanwhile, said in a statement that since the beginning of its counteroffensive on June 4, Ukraine has lost more than 43,000 soldiers and over 4,900 units of various weaponry, including 26 aircraft, nine helicopters, 1,831 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles, including 25 German-made Leopard tanks, seven French-made AMX wheeled tanks and 21 US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.

In addition, the Russian troops have destroyed Kiev’s 747 field artillery guns and mortars, including 76 American M777 artillery systems, as well as 84 self-propelled artillery mounts from Poland, the US, France and Germany.