The United States fears Israel will launch a major assault on Lebanon in the coming days, setting off a wider war in the region with “all hell breaking loose” according to sources in the Biden White House Sunday.
“It is in no one’s interest – not Israel’s, not the region’s, not the world’s – for this conflict to spread beyond Gaza,” said Matt Miller, a spokesman for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) has sent signals in recent days that it’s planning an attack on Israel’s neighbor to the north after withdrawing troops from the Gaza Strip. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promised to “destroy” the Palestinian group Hamas there after militants launched a major attack on Israel on October 7. But IDF ground troops have faced heavy casualties even as Israeli air strikes have killed more than 22,000 in the territory.
“IDF leadership understands very well that the most they can do is severely degrade the military capabilities of Hamas,” said analyst Bilal Saab in US media.
Faced with a perceived failure in his Gaza campaign and heavy unpopularity among the Israeli public, observers suggest Netanyahu is incentivized to shift his focus elsewhere. “The political logic for Netanyahu is to rebound… and have some kind of success to show to the Israeli public,” said Saab.
“I’m not sure going after Hezbollah [in Lebanon] is the right way to do it because that campaign will be far more challenging than the one in Gaza,” he added.
Israel stunned many observers when it launched a drone strike on Beirut last week, killing a Hamas commander there. The close US ally reportedly failed to notify Washington of the attack ahead of time.
The provocative attack in the Lebanese capital occurred on the four year anniversary of US President Donald Trump’s killing of popular Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, causing observers to interpret it as a threat against another country in the region.
Netanyahu faces multiple corruption charges in Israel and faces the threat of prosecution if dislodged from his position as prime minister. With that in mind, analysts fear the longtime leader will launch a wider war in order to save his political career. US involvement could follow, especially if Iran enters the fray on behalf of its proxy forces.
Israel was previously involved in a 34-day war with Hezbollah in Lebanon in 2006, which it is widely considered to have lost. Observers say the militant group has grown stronger since then.
Israeli forces also went to war in Lebanon in the early 1980s. IDF bombing of Beirut was so intense that US President Ronald Reagan called his counterpart in Israel Prime Minister Menachem Begin to urge him to cease the attack, labeling it a “holocaust.” Begin was reportedly offended by the remark, believing the term shouldn’t be used to describe Israel’s killings.
The IDF has reportedly already drawn up strike plans for Lebanon, according to Israeli media. Over the weekend Blinken prepared for a trip to Israel, reportedly in order to help de-escalate the situation.
But both Blinken and US President Joe Biden have a long history of strong support for Israel, with Biden even referring to himself as a “Zionist.” Biden once took to the floor of the Senate to stress Israel’s importance as a proxy for US interests in the Middle East, saying, “If there were not an Israel, we'd have to invent one.”
The Biden administration has occasionally suggested it’s attempting to control its Middle Eastern ally but has been apparently unwilling to withhold military aid or suggest material consequences for their conduct. US representatives at the United Nations have repeatedly vetoed and watered down resolutions criticizing Israel.