Does Poland Want Zelensky to Quit NATO's Proxy War as Sy Hersh Claims?
© AFP 2023 / MAREK JEZIERSKI
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As per Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is privately beginning to lose the support of his neighbors, with a Poland-led group of European states urging him to find a way to end the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Has Warsaw really grown weary of the standoff despite its bellicose anti-Russia rhetoric?
Seymour Hersh revealed on May 17 that government officials in Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Estonia, Czechoslovakia, and Latvia have called upon Volodymyr Zelensky to halt hostilities with Russia – even by resigning himself, if necessary – and begin the process of rebuilding Ukraine. Hersh based this information on unnamed American intelligence community operatives.
"The European leaders have made it clear that 'Zelensky can keep what he's got' — a villa in Italy and interests in offshore bank accounts — 'if he works up a peace deal even if he's got to be paid off, if it's the only way to get a deal'," Hersh wrote on Wednesday.
A "knowledgeable American official" told the Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist that some in the leadership in Hungary and Poland were "among those working together to get Ukraine involved in serious talks with Moscow."
Mateusz Piskorski, a political observer and columnist for the Myśl Polska (Polish Thought) newspaper, does not rule out that Hersh's sources are right.
"Just the other day, and this may indirectly confirm the thesis in Hersh's article, a lobbying group was created to support the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine," Piskorski told Sputnik. "The group included the UK and the Netherlands. We have not heard anything about the fact that Poland and other countries of Eastern and Central Europe were going to participate in this group. So this may be an indirect confirmation of the statements of the American journalist."
At the same time, Piskorski warned against leaping to conclusions: Poland, as well as the other countries mentioned, with the exception of Hungary, is largely guided by instructions from Washington rather than their national interests, according to him.
Poland Doesn't Benefit From NATO Proxy War in Ukraine
Meanwhile, it has already become clear that Poland is by no means benefitting from the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, even though Warsaw has emerged as one of the most ardent supporters of the Kiev regime since February 2022. After the West derailed the Russo-Ukrainian March 2022 peace talks in Istanbul, the standoff escalated, with NATO member states flooding Ukraine with advanced weapons and ammo.
"[Poland] is one of the victims of the escalation of this conflict, given the economic problems that Poland is facing now, taking into account, among other things, the Ukrainian migrant problem," Piskorski said. "This problem is present and increasingly causes various kinds of conflicts with the local Polish population. So, Poland is definitely not a beneficiary. Even if we count the sums that were spent [by Warsaw] to support the Kiev authorities in this conflict, I would say that the opposite is true. Even if one takes a look at the Ukrainian grain imports, it was Polish farmers, grain producers who suffered the most as a result of what is happening in Ukraine, as a result of duty-free imports of Ukrainian grain and agricultural products."
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), 8,240,289 Ukrainian refugees have been recorded across Europe as of May 16, 2023. Of this number, over five million have been under various types of European Temporary Protection programs including 1.6 million Ukrainians who have been registered for national protection schemes in Poland.
The cost of housing Ukrainians in Europe is considerable, especially amid swirling inflation and the accompanying economic slowdown. Poles emerged to be one of the most generous givers. However, late last year they started to complain that they don't have the resources to sustain the initial scale of hospitality: the existing capacity of the Polish housing market, education system, and other essential services has not been enough to meet the needs of Ukrainian newcomers.
"It must be clearly understood that they are not refugees from the point of view of international law, but are precisely immigrants by definition," Piskorski emphasized. "Firstly, those who arrive from Ukraine have not been subjected to checking, as it is done in the case of refugees. A refugee, in accordance with international law, must prove that his/her life is really in danger, that he/she really is a refugee. While we are watching the ongoing conflict, it can be said that most of the territory of Ukraine is not affected with the exception, of course, of the frontline zones in the Donbass."
8 April 2023, 09:52 GMT
In addition, an influx of cheap agricultural products from Ukraine has dealt a heavy blow to Polish farmers.
In April, Warsaw was forced to place a temporary ban on the import of grain, oil seeds and other foods from Ukraine in the wake of growing protests. The restrictions will remain in place until the end of June. It's hardly surprising that the Polish government lent a sympathetic ear to the nation's farmers: in Poland, rural areas account for around 40% of the population, which is one of the highest figures in the European Union.
"Increasingly, in opinion polls, information appears that the vast majority of Poles still consider the continuation of this conflict at least inappropriate," Piskorski continued. "Some even consider it dangerous from the point of view of Poland, as well as attempts to draw Poland into this conflict. (…) According to various opinion polls, a certain understanding of the geopolitical essence of this conflict is also growing. And from the point of view of many Poles, not everything is so clear-cut. Earlier, of course, Russia was blamed for everything. And just two months ago, the results of a sociological survey were published, according to which 26% of Poles believe that the US and NATO are the perpetrators of this conflict."
20 April 2023, 10:30 GMT
Poland's 2023 General Elections
To complicate matters further, Poland is bracing for general elections in the autumn of 2023. As the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party is seeking a third term, it must ensure that the problems and concerns of its constituency are addressed.
"Do not forget that parliamentary elections will be held in Poland this fall," Piskorski noted. "So, most likely, some Polish political forces, including the ruling party, should take into account the public mood, for example, the latest opinion polls which clearly show that the Poles are against the participation of their country in the [Russo-Ukrainian] armed conflict."
In addition, the growing spending on maintenance, support, and social benefits for the citizens of Ukraine is "not perceived positively" by the majority of Poles as the country is heading to the general elections, according to the observer.
If the influx of Ukrainian immigrants coincided with Poland's economic recovery it would have a positive effect on the economy as a whole, explained Piskorski. However, "unfortunately, Poland is experiencing an economic downturn, associated, of course, with sanctions, with the suicidal policy of Europe in recent months."
"With such an economic downturn, I think that Poland really does not have the resources to support a certain number of immigrants from Ukraine," the Polish observer remarked. "This understanding occurs during the election campaign. Just a few days ago, the Polish government promised to increase regular social benefits for Polish citizens, for example, an increase in benefits for Polish families. But for this [the government] needs to find the means. So, of course, in order to really increase these benefits before the elections, they need to somehow reduce spending in other sectors. Well, we can assume that one of the options for saving will be, perhaps, not a complete cessation, but a decrease in the level of financial support for Ukrainian citizens."
Dissent Growing in Washington
While the US intelligence community is seeing ongoing changes in the perception of the conflict in some European capitals, the White House is continuing to push ahead with its proxy war in Ukraine, as per Hersh.
The journalist quoted an unnamed American official as saying that "Europe's problem… is that the White House wants Zelensky to survive while there are others" – in Russia and in some European capitals – "who say Zelensky has got to go, no matter what." According to Hersh, "It’s not clear that this understanding has gotten to the Oval Office."
There are various groups in the White House and it's quite probable that some are seeking at least temporary de-escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian standoff, according to Piskorski.
"There are hawks, and there are those who are in favor of at least a temporary de-escalation of this conflict," he said. "Of course, we may assume that there are various conflicts and behind-the-scenes games in Washington. So, even if we take into account that Poland and other countries in the region are not independent players, it is possible that they may have received some advice or instructions from those political circles in Washington that prefer to freeze, for example, this conflict on for some time."
Meanwhile, as long as Warsaw acts according to instructions from Washington, Poland remains hostage to US political games.
