https://sputnikglobe.com/20230609/when-could-west-pull-the-plug-on-military-assistance-to-kiev-1111029343.html
When Could West Pull the Plug on Military Assistance to Kiev?
When Could West Pull the Plug on Military Assistance to Kiev?
Sputnik International
Military columnist and blogger Yuri Podolyaka has given Sputnik his thoughts about latest developments related to the Ukraine conflict, including reports about Kiev’s counteroffensive.
2023-06-09T15:20+0000
2023-06-09T15:20+0000
2023-06-09T15:23+0000
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Ukraine Counteroffensive Russia’s Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has announced that up to 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers and 150 armored vehicles attempted to break through the Russian defense lines in the Zaporozhye direction on Wednesday night as part of efforts to defeat Moscow’s ongoing special military operation in Ukraine.According to Shoigu, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) lost up to 350 soldiers, as well as 30 tanks and 11 infantry fighting vehicles as a result of a two-hour battle.This comes as senior Ukrainian officials continue to deny or decline confirmation that their much-anticipated counteroffensive against Russia is under way.This was echoed by US media that also mentioned the beginning of the counteroffensive in "several directions", something that the news outlets reported saw the AFU suffer "stiff resistance" and losses in men and materiel.When asked about the reports, a spokesperson for the AFU's General Staff told a UK news network, "We have no such information."It seems that Kiev remains tight-lipped on its much-hyped counteroffensive because "instead of the victory that the Zelensky regime expected to see, they witnessed heavy casualties without any significant result," Podolyaka told Sputnik.The military expert underscored that "both US journalists and AFU servicemen speak of Kiev’s counteroffensive" amid reports that Ukrainian media were banned from reporting about the matter.F-16 Supplies The counteroffensive-related developments come as Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced earlier this week that Kiev would not deploy the US-made F-16 Fighting Falcon jets in its possible counteroffensive this summer, because the process takes time and stipulates training for pilots, engineers and technicians.Following the US' go-ahead to its European allies to provide Ukraine with F-16s last month, an international coalition has been recently formed to provide Ukraine with the jets and train Ukrainian pilots to fly the aircraft. Several countries have volunteered to host the training, including Denmark and Holland, but it has not yet been decided which of them would provide it and when.Bundestag Defense Committee chairwoman Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann said in this vein that Germany can become a hub of this coalition, but that it will not provide the aircraft.Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, for his part, stressed that the Russian Armed Forces have the ability to retaliate against the intention of Western countries to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16s.The US and its allies ramped up their military supplies to Kiev shortly after Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine, with Washington already sending around $36 billion worth of military assistance to the Zelensky regime.Moscow has repeatedly warned countries sending weapons to Kiev that it may further prolong the Ukraine conflict. Lavrov, for his part, emphasized that NATO allies arming and training Ukrainians is tantamount to direct involvement in the standoff.But if the AFU sustains a defeat, then "it is quite possible" that the Americans and Europeans will think that the supply of the F-16s to Kiev is irrelevant, he said, adding "everything will depend on the results of the battle that is now unfolding."When asked if the West will continue increasing its military supplies to Kiev given the AFU’s stuttering attempts to launch a counteroffensive, the military expert referred to what he described as Americans and Britons’ practical approach to things.He explained that such a scenario is fraught with a "very rapid collapse" of the Zelensky regime because it can no longer exist without Western assistance.Giving his insight into when it is relevant to expect the above-mentioned "significant results," he underlined that one should wait and see how developments will further unfold given the fact that the AFU will almost certain try to reverse the tide of the battle in its favor in the coming days.NATO Troops in Ukraine?Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen has meanwhile told reporters that several Eastern European members of the alliance were prepared to send troops into Ukraine to support the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if Washington refuses to offer Kiev security guarantees at the forthcoming summit in Vilnius scheduled for July.He added that the alliance knows "Poland is very engaged in providing concrete assistance to Ukraine" and that he "wouldn’t exclude the possibility that Poland would engage even stronger in this context on a national basis and be followed by the Baltic states, maybe including the possibility of troops on the ground.""I think the Poles would seriously consider going in and assemble a 'coalition of the willing' if Ukraine doesn't get anything in Vilnius," the ex-NATO chief argued.Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba reacted by assuring that foreign countries would not send their troops to Ukraine before the end of the conflict.He also warned that a possible scenario of NATO forces being deployed to Ukraine may have a negative impact on the US.Dwelling on the issue, Podolyaka, in turn, said that he was "sure that Poland will try to seize a significant piece of land from Ukraine", something that he added cannot be resolved without the Polish entering Ukrainian soil.He added that while the probability of the scenario of Polish forces being stationed in Ukraine remains, this won’t take place right now because Warsaw “will wait for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fall apart” as a result of the Russian special military operation.At the same time, Poland hopes that Russia will be purportedly weakened due to NATO’s actions and that it will allow Warsaw to claim and annex the territory of Western Ukraine in line with the 1939 borders,” he concluded.
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230515/scott-ritter-ukraines-counteroffensive---myth-or-reality-1110370203.html
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230527/ukrainians-may-fly-f-16s-with-wing--prayer-but-wont-be-effective-in-combat-1110641779.html
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230608/rasmussen-out-of-his-mind-for-thinking-nato-should-commit-troops-to-ukraine-1111008884.html
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russian special military operation, ukraine's counteroffensive against russian troops, supplies of f-16 fighter jets to ukraine, western countries' military aid to kiev
russian special military operation, ukraine's counteroffensive against russian troops, supplies of f-16 fighter jets to ukraine, western countries' military aid to kiev
When Could West Pull the Plug on Military Assistance to Kiev?
15:20 GMT 09.06.2023 (Updated: 15:23 GMT 09.06.2023) Military columnist and blogger Yuri Podolyaka offered Sputnik his thoughts about the latest developments related to the Ukraine conflict, including reports about Kiev’s counteroffensive, the US’ plans to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets and some NATO members’ alleged push to send troops to Ukraine.
Russia’s Defense Minister
Sergey Shoigu has announced that up to
1,500 Ukrainian soldiers and
150 armored vehicles attempted to break through the Russian defense lines in the Zaporozhye direction on Wednesday night as part of efforts to defeat Moscow’s
ongoing special military operation in Ukraine.
According to Shoigu, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) lost up to 350 soldiers, as well as 30 tanks and 11 infantry fighting vehicles as a result of a two-hour battle.
"The Russian reconnaissance forces detected the enemy in a timely manner, delivered a preventive strike by artillery, aviation and anti-tank weapons," Shoigu said.
This comes as senior Ukrainian officials continue to deny or decline confirmation that their
much-anticipated counteroffensive against Russia is under way.
A Washington-based think tank monitoring the conflict in Ukraine has, meanwhile, tweeted that Kiev’s counteroffensive "has begun" and that "activity throughout Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the theater."
This was echoed by US media that also mentioned the beginning of the counteroffensive in "several directions", something that the news outlets reported saw the AFU suffer "stiff resistance" and losses in men and materiel.
When asked about the reports, a spokesperson for the AFU's General Staff told a UK news network, "We have no such information."
It seems that Kiev remains tight-lipped on its much-hyped counteroffensive because "instead of the victory that the Zelensky regime expected to see, they witnessed heavy casualties without any significant result," Podolyaka told Sputnik.
"They have only captured a combat outpost line of the [Russian troops’] 291st regiment, literally a few trenches. And for this to happen, the AFU lost thousands of lives and dozens of pieces of military equipment. There is information several [German-made] Leopard-2 tanks were damaged as a result of these attacks," he pointed out.
The military expert underscored that "both US journalists and AFU servicemen speak of Kiev’s counteroffensive" amid reports that Ukrainian media were banned from reporting about the matter.
The counteroffensive-related developments come as Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov announced earlier this week that Kiev would not deploy the US-made
F-16 Fighting Falcon jets in its possible counteroffensive this summer, because the process takes time and stipulates training for pilots, engineers and technicians.
"The F-16s will not [be a] game-changer this summer," he told a Japanese broadcaster, claiming that Kiev will possibly be ready to deploy the warplanes this autumn or winter.
Following the US' go-ahead to its European allies to provide Ukraine with F-16s last month, an international coalition has been recently formed to provide Ukraine with the jets and train Ukrainian pilots to fly the aircraft. Several countries have volunteered to host the training, including Denmark and Holland, but it has not yet been decided which of them would provide it and when.
Bundestag Defense Committee chairwoman Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann said in this vein that
Germany can become a hub of this coalition, but that it will not provide the aircraft.
Moscow has called possible deliveries of the “Fighting Falcons” to Ukraine another stage of escalation of the conflict and warned that these warplanes will become a legitimate target for Russian forces.
Russia's
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, for his part, stressed that the Russian Armed Forces have the ability to retaliate against the intention of Western countries to train Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16s.
"As for Denmark and the Netherlands and their intention to be at the forefront of those who train Ukrainian pilots on Western aircraft, well, there is, first of all, a desire to please the hegemon. These countries are actively pursuing Washington’s line in European affairs. As for our reaction, I have no doubt that our Armed Forces have the ability to respond to this," Lavrov told reporters.
The US and its allies ramped up their military supplies to Kiev shortly after Russia launched its special military operation in Ukraine, with Washington already sending around $36 billion worth of military assistance to the Zelensky regime.
Moscow has repeatedly warned countries sending weapons to Kiev that it may further prolong the Ukraine conflict. Lavrov, for his part, emphasized that NATO allies arming and training Ukrainians is tantamount to direct involvement in the standoff.
Touching upon Kiev’s chances to get the F-16s, Podolyaka suggested that “If the so-called counteroffensive ends up at least in a draw, or with some small victories for the AFU, then, of course, the fighter jets will be in place in Ukraine.”
But if the AFU sustains a defeat, then "it is quite possible" that the Americans and Europeans will think that the supply of the F-16s to Kiev is irrelevant, he said, adding "everything will depend on the results of the battle that is now unfolding."
When asked if the West will continue increasing its military supplies to Kiev given the AFU’s stuttering attempts to launch a counteroffensive, the military expert referred to what he described as Americans and Britons’ practical approach to things.
"They are business people. They understand that if the project is unsuccessful, then it is not worth investing in it. And they are already directly saying and hinting to the Kiev regime that ‘if you don’t achieve any significant results as a result of the counteroffensive, […] then there will be a decrease in investments," according to Podolyaka.
He explained that such a scenario is fraught with a "very rapid collapse" of the Zelensky regime because it can no longer exist without Western assistance.
"Militarily, the Ukrainian state would have been destroyed long ago but for the West’s aid. […] The Zelensky regime will fall or [be] significantly weakened as soon as Western assistance dries up, something that Kiev is afraid of. That is why they have launched this suicidal counteroffensive, knowing about all the risks related to the decision," Podolyaka noted.
Giving his insight into when it is relevant to expect the above-mentioned "significant results," he underlined that one should wait and see how developments will further unfold given the fact that the AFU will almost certain try to reverse the tide of the battle in its favor in the coming days.
Former NATO Secretary General
Anders Fogh Rasmussen has meanwhile told reporters that several Eastern European members of the alliance were prepared to send troops into Ukraine to support the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky if Washington refuses to offer Kiev security guarantees at the forthcoming summit in Vilnius scheduled for July.
"If NATO cannot agree on a clear path forward for Ukraine, there is a clear possibility that some countries individually might take action," Rasmussen said.
He added that the alliance knows "Poland is very engaged in providing concrete assistance to Ukraine" and that he "wouldn’t exclude the possibility that Poland would engage even stronger in this context on a national basis and be followed by the Baltic states, maybe including the possibility of troops on the ground."
"I think the Poles would seriously consider going in and assemble a 'coalition of the willing' if Ukraine doesn't get anything in Vilnius," the ex-NATO chief argued.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba reacted by assuring that foreign countries would not send their troops to Ukraine before the end of the conflict.
Deputy chief of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev also commented on the matter, writing on his Telegram page that "While Fogh Rasmussen previously was not a very smart person, he has now completely fallen into doctrinaire dementia."
He also warned that a possible scenario of NATO forces being deployed to Ukraine may have a negative impact on the US.
"What does Uncle Sam think about this? After all, they’ll be impacted too. […] This is what happens when one becomes a freelance adviser to all sorts of greedy scumbags like former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and other corrupt Nazis at an inappropriate time," Medvedev added.
Dwelling on the issue, Podolyaka, in turn, said that he was "sure that Poland will try to seize a significant piece of land from Ukraine", something that he added cannot be resolved without the Polish entering Ukrainian soil.
He added that while the probability of the scenario of Polish forces being stationed in Ukraine remains, this won’t take place right now because Warsaw “will wait for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to fall apart” as a result of the Russian special military operation.
At the same time, Poland hopes that Russia will be purportedly weakened due to NATO’s actions and that it will allow Warsaw to claim and annex
the territory of Western Ukraine in line with the 1939 borders,” he concluded.
