Hungary’s Orban Has at Least 3 Good Reasons to Reject Ukraine’s ‘Geopolitical’ EU Membership Drive
© AP Photo / Omar Havana
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The EU greenlit accession talks for Ukraine Thursday after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that Budapest wouldn’t be sharing “in this bad decision.” On Friday, Hungary vetoed a €50 billion ($55 billion US) aid package for Kiev. Why is Hungary so dead set against Ukraine’s EU drive? And what are Ukraine’s real chances for membership?
The saga of Kiev’s bid to join the European Union – the issue which singularly kicked off the bloody Euromaidan coup a decade ago, brought Ukraine to economic and demographic ruin, and led to the final disruption of relations with Russia, reached its climax this week as EU leaders met to approve membership talks.
Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister Western leaders and media feared might block the accession talks, reiterated that he did not believe that Ukraine was ready to join the EU, and called the decision “completely meaningless, irrational and inappropriate.”
Facing intense political and economic pressure from the bloc’s 26 other members, Orban said Hungary would “walk away from” the “bad decision” instead of vetoing Ukraine’s application outright. Shortly after, he took to X (former Twitter) to announce that Budapest would be blocking a proposed €50 billion aid package for Kiev. Later in the day, he assured that Hungary would have as many as 75 more chances to stop Ukraine’s accession in the coming years.
Western and Ukrainian officials and media squeezed what they could from the bittersweet summit, pumping up German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ego by suggesting he “tricked” Orban by inviting him to leave the room and “grab a coffee” while other members voted (under EU rules, opening accession talks requires unanimous approval by all existing members). Hungarian officials have not commented on the veracity of the “coffee” talk.
15 December 2023, 13:06 GMT
Eurosceptic Orban - Defender of Europe?
Commenting on the battles in Brussels between Orban on one side and other bloc leaders on the other, Dr. Gilbert Doctorow explained that there are several factors, both publicly stated and privately held, which motivate the Hungarian leader’s resistance to the idea of Ukraine joining the EU.
“In the first category, they hold the European Commission to its own ‘rules driven order.’ Namely, Ukraine was already given seven requirements of things to fix in its government and society, such as fighting corruption. Viktor Orban points out that the country has fixed only 3 of the 7 essential tasks, so it is appropriate to postpone consideration of its membership until all EU demands are met,” the international relations observer told Sputnik.
“The unofficial reasons lie elsewhere,” Doctorow said. “Among them are Hungary's anger over the mistreatment of the Magyar-speaking minority in the West of Ukraine in what were once Hungarian territories; also the threat of economic damage to Hungary from Ukraine's much cheaper agricultural produce.”
The 150,000-person strong community of ethnic Hungarian Ukrainians has been subjected to the same restrictions as Ukraine’s Russian-speakers, becoming unable to receive an education in Hungarian thanks to a discriminatory language law passed by the post-coup Ukrainian government in 2017. The language law, combined with Hungary’s refusal to allow its territory to be used for the transfer of NATO weapons to Ukraine, and Budapest’s decision not to break off trade ties with Russia, have resulted in a long, bitter spat between Hungarian and Ukrainian officials.
Additionally, in September, Hungary and neighbors Poland and Slovakia introduced individual restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural imports after an EU-wide grain ban ran out, with the issue becoming another major stumbling block in ties – particularly with Poland – once one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies.
“Considering Prime Minister Orban’s position, we can say that he is absolutely correct when he draws attention to the fact that Ukraine has not fulfilled three of seven key conditions for the start of negotiations. Such a conclusion can be reached if one were to become acquainted with European Commission documents, and with the state of affairs in Ukraine, for example in the legal and judicial system, and many other areas,” explains Mateusz Piskorski, a political observer and columnist for Poland’s Mysl Polska newspaper.
On the other hand, “there is also the political component,” Piskorski told Sputnik. “It lies in the fact that the leadership in Budapest believes Ukraine as a whole could essentially lead to the collapse of the European Union. Ukraine’s accession to the European Union could lead to the disintegration of, or at least a deterioration in, the overall potential of the EU.”
14 December 2023, 11:37 GMT
In other words, while Orban has long been labeled a soft Eurosceptic seeking to make pig’s breakfast of EU structures over his desire to preserve elements of Hungary’s sovereignty, may actually be saving the bloc’s stability over the long term.
“I believe that what Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban are saying is actually very beneficial for other EU countries, because the latter cannot say some things out loud, but can always refer back to the idea that not all EU members have agreed on the allocation of another tranche of financial assistance…In truth, I think the opinion that the EU is unable to allocate further large sums of money to Kiev is already the dominant position in most capitals,” even if it’s not said out loud, Piskorski said.
“Both Hungary and Slovakia actually take a more or less realistic position regarding the prospects of the current conflict in Ukraine. And they are drawing the right conclusions about the fate of these funds…taking into account the level of corruption of Ukrainian government structures,” the observer added.
5 October 2023, 17:08 GMT
Does Ukraine Have a Chance of Joining EU?
Neither Doctorow nor Piskorski believe Ukraine as it exists today has a chance of joining the EU, especially by the 2030 deadline proposed by European Council President Charles Michel.
“Until and unless the neo-Nazi directed regime in Kiev is overturned, it is unlikely the country can meet the requirements for entry into the EU, whether by 2030 or any other date,” Doctorow said. “If the EU leadership of von der Leyen and Michel had their way, the EU [would] admit Ukraine whatever its failings out of purely geopolitical consideration. But this leadership will not have its way, and will likely itself be thrown out following the EU-wide parliamentary elections in 2024.”
“Firstly, my personal opinion is that Ukrainian statehood in its current format will most likely no longer exist by 2030. I mean to say the current territorial format, and in general, what we now call Ukraine. Secondly, I believe that the talk about Ukraine joining the EU is in fact, is a matter of mere rhetorical flourishes,” Piskorski said.
“Even the status of candidate for membership does not really mean anything serious. Turkiye’s prime minister has said as much, and as everyone knows, that country has been negotiating accession to the EU for more than 40 years, but still has no prospect to join. Ankara has lost interest in joining the European Union altogether,” the political observer pointed out.
In Ukraine’s case, “it’s really just a political promise associated with a certain amount of political correctness. Ukraine thus receives this beautiful promise instead of the money it was counting on so much – the €50 billion tranche of financial support. So I personally doubt that Ukraine will ever be able to join the EU in its current format,” Piskorski summed up.
15 December 2023, 12:35 GMT
