Kiev's Bill on Mobilization: Throwing More Ukrainians Into Meat-Grinder
© AFP 2023 / ANATOLII STEPANOV
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The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has submitted an amended draft bill on mobilization to Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada. What's in the bill and how could it change the status quo on the battlefield?
Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced on January 30 that a new draft law setting out "transparent rules for the mobilization process, as well as necessary regulation of the rights of servicemen and conscripts," was sent to the country's parliament.
What's Behind the Timing of the Law?
A previous draft triggered a heated debate in Ukrainian society, as it appeared to allow people with disabilities to be drafted — particularly 'group III' that corresponds to partial disability — as well as women.
The legislation would also lower the draft age for men with no military experience from 27 to 25 and defined a wide range of punitive measures for draft dodgers.
A new mobilization push came on the heels of Ukraine's failed summer counteroffensive, in which the Kiev regime lost 159,000 servicemen killed and wounded, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The losses sustained by Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) since the start of the Russian special military operation are estimated at 383,000 (killed and wounded), the MoD says.
President Volodymyr Zelensky annouhced on December 19 that AFU commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny had asked for half a million new recruits to replace losses. Zaluzhny later rejected Zelensky's claim, saying that the military leadership had not requested a fixed number of new conscripts.
In addition to losses on the battlefield, Ukraine has seen mass emigration of draft-aged men since the beginning of the conflict.
In late August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered a full review of all mobilization exemptions granted by Military Medical Commissions (MMCs) starting from February 24, 2022, after reports that Ukrainians who did not want to fight had bribed officials to get fraudulent rulings by the MMCs. Kiev also requested EU member states to extradite draft dodgers, but European officials refused to do so on the grounds of humanitarian law.
26 December 2023, 18:58 GMT
What's in the New Draft Law on Mobilization?
The draft legislation would abolish conscript service and introduce basic combined arms training for three months for all citizens aged 18 to 25.
The draft age would be lowered from 27 to 25 years.
Electronic military summonses and recruiter's electronic accounts would be introduced. summonses would be sent by email, while previously conscripts only received a letter from a policy officer or by a Territorial Recruitment Center (TRC) representative.
Ukrainians aged 18 to 60 years will be required to carry a military registration document and show it at the request of a representative of the military registration and enlistment office or the police. In addition, medical institutions would have to notify military registration and enlistment offices within three days about the hospital stay of persons aged 18–25 years.
Ukrainians removed from military registration due to departure abroad — and staying there for over three months — are required to register for military service within 30 days from the date of the law's enactment.
Under martial law, those Ukrainians who have been abroad for a long period of time have the right to unhindered border crossing if they prove that they are not suitable for military service.
The rights of draft dodgers would be restricted through the courts, including a ban on traveling abroad and blocking of their bank accounts.
Citizens of Ukraine who were recognized as partially fit for military service before the law's entry into force are subject to repeated medical examination for suitability for military service within nine months from the date of the law's enactment.
Citizens of Ukraine from 25 to 55 with disabilities of groups II and III due to injuries, concussions and crippling wounds received during the ongoing conflict are subjects to a repeated medical examination for suitability for military service until the end of 2024.
Female doctors and pharmacists would become subjects for military registration. Other women would be able to register on a voluntary basis and could be involved in defensive works.
Сonvicts who have been released from serving their sentences (on parole) may be called up for military service during mobilization, except for those who have been convicted of crimes against Ukraine's national security.
The list of categories exempt from mobilization has been reduced. Studying in higher education would no longer be a basis for deferment. But members of Ukraine's parliament and senior officials, judges, employees of military administration bodies and employees of some enterprises critical for the state's economy could avoid the draft.
8 November 2023, 14:29 GMT
Could the New Draft Law Change Balance of Power on Battlefield?
The new draft law in many respects resembles the earlier version, with the most unpopular clauses removed. But it is clear that the main thrust of the new bill is lowering the draft age and expanding the base for mobilization.
The law ramps up control over the draft-age population and tightens the screws on draft dodgers in a bid to drum up as much manpower as possible. Zaluzhny's article in the Economist last November indicates that the AFU was considering launching a new counteroffensive this spring. Presently, however, the country appears to have gone on the defensive with Zelensky announcing the creation of a three-tiered defense along the existing line of contact.
Some international observers believe that amassing a new army would take no less than half a year. Still, even if the Kiev regime's mobilization push yeilds any results, the country does not have enough weapons and ammunition for its military forces. Most munitions and equipment have been destroyed or exhausted during the conflict, with Western military enterprises currently struggling to ramp up production in the near term.
Despite the EU adopting a new $54 billion package for Ukraine to fill gaps in the Ukrainian government's budget to allow it to pay salaries and services, further US military and humanitarian aid for the Kiev regime remains deadlocked in the US Congress. Some US think-tanks suggest that the hefty package could be either substantially diminished or "killed" altogether.
Kiev's Western patrons seem unconcerned by these obstacles as they push Ukraine to throw new lives into the conflict's meat-grinder in a bid to prolong the bloodshed.
As European chief diplomat Josep Borrell declared in an article for France's L'Obs, reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine and a cessation of hostilities would be "a mistake." Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova called Borrell's comments "monstrous". The West offers Ukraine nothing but further exhaustion and eventual destruction.
31 January, 07:48 GMT
