Why Zaluzhny May Become More Dangerous for Zelensky if Fired
16:12 GMT 31.01.2024 (Updated: 16:18 GMT 31.01.2024)
© Photo : Public domain/President Of Ukraine
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The fate of Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny has not been sealed yet, as behind-the-scenes political strife is continuing in Kiev.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is still seeking to replace Zaluzhny despite dismissing the rumors of the general's sacking earlier, the Financial Times reported.
The newspaper's sources claimed that Zaluzhny was offered a position as a defense adviser, but that he turned it down.
Possible candidates for Zaluzhny's replacement are said to be Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, and Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the country's military intelligence directorate. But the Economist and the Times report that both have refused to fill Zaluzhny's shoes.
The British press drew attention to former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's opposition to Zelensky's apparent move: "Firing Zaluzhny, if true, would hit at the heart of national unity," wrote Poroshenko.
"The fact is that there was an attempt to replace Zaluzhny; it was an impromptu attempt that failed, because Zelensky hoped to remove a political competitor, not so much a military one," Alexander Dudchak, leading researcher at the Institute of CIS Countries, and expert on the 'Another Ukraine' movement, told Sputnik.
"And the fact that he offered [Zaluzhny] the position of adviser [speaks volumes]. By assuming that role he would have moved away from military affairs while not becoming a political competitor," Dudchak said. "But in Ukraine, two different Western groups are trying to solve their problems: one from Washington, the other from London, with slightly different visions of the future of Ukraine, how to use it and what to do with it now, and in general — there are forces through which they accomplish their tasks."
It is these forces who are playing the Zaluzhny card right now, the researcher argued.
According to Dudchak, the so-called pro-US faction includes Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and some figures in the President's Office. The other grouping is pro-British and includes the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense (GUR), its chief Budanov and Syrsky.
"So far the replacement has been cancelled. This does not mean that Budanov changed his mind or that Syrsky did not want to [assume the position]. Who's asking them? Syrsky has no opinion of his own. He even changed the language he speaks. Because listening to him speaking Ukrainian is weird. And will he show some kind of opinion? No way," Dudchak explained. "So for now, the operation to replace Zaluzhny has simply been postponed. This does not mean that he will not be removed. Therefore, these figures which look suitable for replacing Zaluzhny have remained in a standby mode for now."
The decision to replace Zaluzhny could stem from the West's changing goals in Ukraine. The researcher outlined two scenarios, apparently sought by Washington and London: London is more interested in the continuation of the conflict and in waging a "terrorist war." But Washington is much more keen to freeze the conflict, given the forthcoming presidential elections in November 2024.
Dudchak pointed out that both Americans and Britons could benefit from freezing the conflict, as they are planning to ramp up the military-industrial complex's capacity and production over the next three to five years. For its part, Russia signaled that it would not tolerate a new flawed Minsk accords-style agreement on Ukraine.
Why Has Poroshenko Stepped in?
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's sudden support for Zaluzhny demonstrates that the internal strife among the Ukrainian elites is gaining steam, according to Dudchak.
"Petro Poroshenko is an old 'client' of the Democrats and Biden's local partner. And his relationship with Zelensky is very complicated. [Poroshenko] is generally a vindictive person with a good memory. He has his own interests. And given all these corruption scandals, if they ever start to unfold under [Republican presidential candidate Donald] Trump [if he wins the 2024 race — Sputnik] and go beyond some practical level, it will be a big problem for Poroshenko," the scholar explained.
Dudchak noted that Poroshenko was instrumental in fanning the scandal over Zaluzhny's possible overthrow. Poroshenko spread panic in Brussels over the Ukrainian president's effort to get rid of the top general. His actions dealt a blow to Zelensky, and Poroshenko was glad demonstrate his loyalty to Washington by saving its man in Kiev, the researcher argued.
Will Zaluzhny Preserve His Position?
Even though the Western mainstream press says Zelensky is dead set on firing the top Ukrainian commander, there is a possibility that he will retain his post, the researcher believes.
Zaluzhny sacking controversy shows Zelensky no longer controls the top general
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) January 30, 2024
Ukraine's President Office and the Ministry of Defense denied rumors that President Volodymyr Zelensky fired the nation's top commander Gen. Valery Zaluzhny on January 30.
"I think that this was… pic.twitter.com/iGC1ed4yIh
"In fact, even if he resigned and went into politics, perhaps this would be the best option for him, because presently it is problematic to achieve any success on the battlefield," said the expert. "In such a position, he could have said what a brilliant commander he is, and that all the failures stemmed from [Zelensky's] decisions, which were not agreed upon with the military leadership. This really happened, there were Zelensky’s actions when he or his office tried to control the military, bypassing the commander-in-chief. So this would be a very good option for Zaluzhny. What else does he need? He has enough money, ambitions, and titles. And stepping aside now would be a good option for him. But they didn’t let him go," Dudchak concluded.
