How Russia Can Disarm Threat of Ukraine’s Ultra-Long Range Drones
17:08 GMT 06.04.2024 (Updated: 07:45 GMT 07.04.2024)
© Sputnik / Sergey Averin
/ Subscribe
Facing setbacks up and down the front and regular Russian attacks targeting its military and energy infrastructure, Ukraine’s top brass hopes to find respite with a long-range drone strike capability. Sputnik asked drone warfare experts about the dangers posed by Kiev’s new strategy, and what tools Russia has to counter the threat.
Up to ten unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturers are planning to deliver long-range strike drones to Ukraine’s armed forces, with deliveries expected to provide Kiev with the ability to launch attacks at targets up to 3,300 km inside Russia. That’s according to a recent report by Germany’s Bild newspaper citing a source familiar with the situation.
Bild cited the Kiev-based Luch design bureau’s new Sokil-300 UAV as one example of Ukraine’s budding lineup of long-range strike UAVs, with the drone, under development since mid-2019, promising a flight range between 1,300 and 3,300 km, a top speed of up to 580 km per hour, and a 300 kg payload (equivalent to a large air-dropped bomb, ballistic or cruise missile). The strike drone can reportedly its own onboard air-to-ground missiles at a range up to 10 km.
Another design, the smaller UJ-22, in development by the UKRJET company since 2020, has an expected maximum range of 800 km in autonomous mode (dropping to 100 km in manual control) is 330 cm long, 460 cm wide and has an 85 kg maximum takeoff weight. Western media allege that modified UJ-22s equipped with additional fuel tanks to extend their range were involved in attacks targeting defense enterprises, energy and civilian infrastructure in Russia’s Tatarstan region – about 1,500 km from Ukrainian conflict zone, earlier this week.
Facing setbacks on the battlefield ranging from troop and equipment shortages to the deployment of new, heavy Russian firepower cracking through fortifications in the Donbass, the focus on long-range drone warfare is part of a broader Ukrainian shift in tactics in the NATO-sponsored proxy war with Russia.
German media expects the new drone capabilities to give Kiev “new points of attack in Russia,” up to and including Russian bases as far as the Arctic, as well as energy infrastructure, in the hope that Kiev can whittle away at Moscow’s resolve and ability to fuel its industry allowing Russia to maintain its overwhelming edge in arms production.
“Ukraine can’t win along the line of contact and is suffering defeats along the entire front, resorting to the launch of a systematic program of terrorist actions in the depths of the Russian Federation,” veteran Russian defense observer Evgeny Mikhailov told Sputnik, commenting on Kiev’s new focus on drones.
Russia can counter these attacks in a number of ways, Mikhailov told Sputnik, starting with expanded strikes targeting drone infrastructure in Ukraine specifically.
Another means to blunting the threat is to increase Russian strategic enterprises’ anti-drone defenses, says Edward Bagdasarian, a Russian military drone specialist.
“I think, firstly, that all these factories where things are produced for the special military operation will be classified. Secondly, the security services of such enterprises and objects of critical infrastructure within 1,500-2,000 km [of the front] will acquire anti-drone defenses,” Bagdasarian told Sputnik.
In addition to traditional air defense systems like the Kub, Buk, S-300, S-400 which can target large drones with an equal rate of success as enemy aircraft, the Ukrainian crisis has forced Russian developers to ramp up creation and production of an array of anti-drone warfare equipment, from man-portable anti-drone guns and electronic countermeasures which fry UAV circuits or disorient them, to experimental combat laser weapons.
How Deep is NATO’s Involvement in Ukraine’s Long-Range Drone Programs?
Western officials have not shied away from characterizing the Ukrainian conflict zone as a “testing ground” for new weapons and tactics, with drones playing a major role in redefining what modern warfare between technological peer adversaries looks like.
Efficient military-grade long-range strike drones are expensive and difficult to produce, Bagdasarian says. Therefore, until recently, Ukraine has been forced to improvise, using a modified 70s-80s vintage Soviet-era reconnaissance drone known as the Tupolev Tu-141 to attack the Russian hinterland in 2022, and, reportedly targeting the city of Yelabuga, Tatarstan using a small, two-seater airplane converted into a drone and fitted with explosives.
“The Armed Forces of Ukraine will make every effort, spending the last of their resources, to continue carrying out such attacks,” Bagdasarian emphasized, noting that Kiev’s goal will be to undermine Russia economically, politically and psychologically.
Kiev’s Western sponsors will aid its client in this effort, Mikhailov said, pointing to NATO’s readiness to supply Kiev with training and resources.
“I think it’s quite likely that Western instructors or technical specialists will train the Ukrainian military [in the use of drones, ed.] and that Ukrainian personnel will launch them. A UAV is not an F-16, and has a slightly different application and tactics. It’s much easier to train UAV specialists than F-16 pilots. Therefore, it’s likely that some specialists have already been trained,” the observer said.
“Drones are supplied en masse [by the West, ed.], but these have a short range, as we see,” Bagdasarian said. “Reconnaissance is carried out using NATO countries’ space and aviation-based reconnaissance systems. Plus there is the funding for Ukraine from Western countries,” he added. Without both, Ukraine’s drone strategy wouldn’t stand a chance.
Game-Changing Wunderwaffe? Probably Not
Drones aren’t the end-all be all solution Kiev and its allies may be looking for as the Ukrainian crisis turns into a quagmire, Bagdasarian stressed.
“Their range is about the same as that of cruise missiles, but cruise missiles are faster, their flight path is closer to the ground, and they are more difficult to detect. That is, the latter are technologically superior. And naturally, such missiles are also more reliable. These homemade drones are more primitive, seemingly slapped together whatever was available. Therefore, their reliability, accuracy, safety and survivability are significantly lower,” the observer noted.
On top of that, “the flight speed is slow,” meaning they are easier to pick up on radar.
21 July 2023, 13:00 GMT
