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Trump Assassination Attempt: Could It Swing Votes in Key States?

© AP Photo / Evan VucciДональд Трамп после покушения на предвыборном митинге в Батлере, США
Дональд Трамп после покушения на предвыборном митинге в Батлере, США - Sputnik International, 1920, 15.07.2024
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WASHINGTON (Sputnik), Kirill Krasilnikov - The assassination attempt against former US President Donald Trump could improve his standing with the voters but is unlikely to significantly affect the presidential campaign, with the exception of several swing states, experts told Sputnik.
On Saturday afternoon, shots were fired during Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president sustained a gunshot wound to his right ear and was briefly hospitalized. The gunman killed a member of the audience and critically injured two others in the crowd before the Secret Service neutralized him. The FBI is treating the incident as an assassination attempt and potential domestic terrorism. The suspected gunman was identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania.
Trump has joined the short list of US presidents who survived an assassination attempt against them. It includes Theodore Roosevelt, who was shot in 1912 while campaigning, and Ronald Reagan, who was shot in 1981. Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy are among those who were assassinated.
"I suspect Trump’s favorability will increase, perhaps greatly so, as a result of the shooting. First, he will win a greater portion of the sympathy for having been a shooting victim. More importantly, he was able to reflexively and brilliantly respond with an immediate show of strength and power with the image of a raised fist that will become iconic," political analyst Keith Preston told Sputnik.
Robert Weissberg, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, argued that the attempt on the former president would not change much, besides leading to "an outpouring of rhetoric."
"It might give his supporters a little more incentive to turn out and vote for him. But I suspect that this may be of consequences only in a few swing states," Weissberg said.
US President Joe Biden pauses during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Oct. 18, 2023 - Sputnik International, 1920, 14.07.2024
Analysis
Trump Shooting Complicates Matters for Struggling Biden Campaign

(Dis)Unity

US President Joe Biden has responded to the Pennsylvania shooting saying that "there’s no place for this kind of violence in America" and that the country should come together to condemn it. Republican Senator J.D. Vance blamed Biden for inciting the attempt on Trump with his campaign rhetoric.
"Many people may view the shooting as a wake-up call and take a step back from inflammatory rhetoric out of fear of escalating violence. However, the shooting could also intensify partisan hostility. Already, partisans are seeking to blame each for alleged rhetorical excesses that are portrayed as causes of actual violence. My guess is that this incident will exacerbate rather than reduce polarization," Preston said.
The expert also suggested that the United States could face similar problems as Northern Ireland during The Troubles in the late 1960s-1998, when the country was riven by a sectarian conflict between Catholic and Protestant paramilitary groups.
"That’s obviously not guaranteed but events seem to be pointing in that direction," Preston suggested.
Дональд Трамп после покушения на предвыборном митинге в Батлере, США - Sputnik International, 1920, 15.07.2024
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