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Golan Attack ‘Inflection Point’ Threatens to Trigger ‘Large-Scale War’, Pull Others Into ‘Quagmire’
Golan Attack ‘Inflection Point’ Threatens to Trigger ‘Large-Scale War’, Pull Others Into ‘Quagmire’
Sputnik International
A full-scale Israel-Hezbollah war threatens to devastate both sides and spiral into a regional war, Lebanese American University political science and international affairs assistant professor Joseph Helou told Sputnik.
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A full-scale Israel-Hezbollah war threatens to devastate both sides and spiral into a regional war, and world powers must do everything in their power to prevent such an eventuality from taking place, Lebanese American University political science and international affairs assistant professor Joseph Helou told Sputnik, commenting on the precarious situation in the region after Saturday’s attack on Majdal Shams.“Since 7 October 2023, Hezbollah has joined the war in support of Gaza. Ever since, several critical moments seemed to present themselves as the inflection point that could escalate into a large-scale war in the region. Yet, both Hezbollah and Israel seem to confine this war to the implicit ‘rules of engagement’, restricting the combat to south Lebanon and north Israel, with occasional violations of these rules, but without reaching the tip of the iceberg,” Dr. Helou explained.Unlike Hamas, for example, whose Spartan fighting forces have used a combination of assault rifles, shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles, simple garage-built rockets and a vast underground tunnel network for their war against Israel in Gaza, Hezbollah’s paramilitary wing has racked up years of combined experience fighting both Israel and US-sponsored terrorist proxies in Syria.Moreover, unlike Hamas, which is confined to Gaza and forced to smuggle in its weapons, Hezbollah faces far fewer restrictions in its access to sophisticated armaments, and is estimated to have amassed a missile, rocket and drone arsenal potentially powerful enough to overwhelm Israel’s sophisticated air defenses.The international community must continue the “strong diplomatic efforts” being taken “to extinguish the conflagration” before it escalates any further, Dr. Helou said. “While this does not preclude the possibility of a large-scale attack, it fosters an environment in which the conflicting parties have to recalculate their moves.”The United States – Israel’s chief military and economic sponsor, blamed Hezbollah for Saturday’s attack, but said it was “working on a diplomatic solution” to the tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border – home to over nine months of skirmishes between the IDF and Hezbollah since October.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists on Sunday that there appear to be “no prospects for stopping this bloodshed,” saying Russia “condemns all terrorist actions undertaken by any organization,” and adding that the root cause of the crisis stems from the ongoing war in Gaza and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “unrealistic” plan to “completely destroy” Hamas.Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have rejected Israel’s claims about the militia’s purported responsibility for Saturday’s attack, and Beirut has called for an international investigation.Israel has already launched large-scale strikes against Hezbollah positions, and slapped the militia with an ultimatum on Sunday, demanding a complete withdraw Hezbollah forces from the border area.This is unrealistic, Dr. Helou said.“It is very unlikely that Hezbollah will withdraw their forces, specifically the Radwan elite forces, from the borders without a package deal. The group regards Israel to be in a situation conducive for a negotiated settlement, specifically with regards to disputed border points, gas drilling and the [Israeli-occupied] Shebaa Farms. While these topics may not be tabled for discussion in a comprehensive manner, Hezbollah believes that it should receive some concessions before conceding,” the observer explained.Asked to comment on reports from Hezbollah’s allies and friendly media that the attack on Majdal Shams may have been a “fabricated scenario” designed to distract from Israeli actions in Gaza, or even a false-flag to justify a full-scale intervention in Lebanon, Dr. Helou said that while he could not confirm the authenticity of such claims, it is clear that “some actors may have an interest in taking action against Hezbollah.”“The Israeli PM is in a fragile political condition in Israeli politics, a matter that may incentivize him to launch a large-scale attack against Hezbollah to shore up his legitimacy,” Helou said.Israeli Druze politician and Knesset member Akram Hasson takes the opposite view, expressing certainty about Hezbollah’s responsibility for Saturday's shelling, and support for Netanyahu, saying the PM has promised “that the Israeli army will not stop attacking Lebanon and [are] going to attack Hezbollah very hard.”Israeli media investigating Saturday’s incident in Majdal Shams have not questioned the government narrative that Hezbollah was responsible for the attack, but have asked why the IDF’s Northern Command did not issue an early warning to residents to seek shelter, as typically occurs when an incoming missile or rocket threat is detected.Partially occupied by Israel since 1967 and formally annexed in 1982, the Golan Heights is home to a large Syrian Druze community. Many Druze continue to reject Israel’s occupation of their communities, refusing Israeli citizenship, service in the military, and holding protests demanding reunification with Syria.
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attack on majdal shams, israel lebanon tensions, idf hezballah escalation, israeli lebanese border tensions, joseph helou, what is happening between israel and lebanon, war on middle east
attack on majdal shams, israel lebanon tensions, idf hezballah escalation, israeli lebanese border tensions, joseph helou, what is happening between israel and lebanon, war on middle east
Golan Attack ‘Inflection Point’ Threatens to Trigger ‘Large-Scale War’, Pull Others Into ‘Quagmire’
19:01 GMT 28.07.2024 (Updated: 19:18 GMT 28.07.2024) Weeks of mounting tensions between Hezbollah and Israel spilled over into deadly violence on Saturday after a Druze town in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights was struck by a projectile, killing more than a dozen people. Israel and the US blamed Hezbollah, and the IDF has already launched ‘retaliatory’ strikes. Hezbollah has denied involvement.
A full-scale Israel-Hezbollah war threatens to devastate both sides and spiral into a regional war, and world powers must do everything in their power to prevent such an eventuality from taking place, Lebanese American University political science and international affairs assistant professor Joseph Helou told Sputnik, commenting on the
precarious situation in the region after Saturday’s
attack on Majdal Shams.
“Since 7 October 2023, Hezbollah has joined the war in support of Gaza. Ever since, several critical moments seemed to present themselves as the inflection point that could escalate into a large-scale war in the region. Yet, both Hezbollah and Israel seem to confine this war to the implicit ‘rules of engagement’, restricting the combat to south Lebanon and north Israel, with occasional violations of these rules, but without reaching the tip of the iceberg,” Dr. Helou explained.
“I believe that a prolonged ground invasion of South Lebanon will invite multiple foreign actors in the quagmire,” the academic warned, pointing out that both Hezbollah and Israel in their own right “possess enormous military capabilities that could make a full-blown war quite destructive for both sides.”
Unlike Hamas, for example, whose Spartan fighting forces have used a combination of assault rifles, shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles, simple garage-built rockets and a v
ast underground tunnel network for their war against Israel in Gaza, Hezbollah’s paramilitary wing has racked up years of combined experience fighting both Israel and US-sponsored terrorist proxies in Syria.
Moreover, unlike Hamas, which is confined to Gaza and forced to smuggle in its weapons, Hezbollah faces far fewer restrictions in its access to sophisticated armaments, and is estimated to have amassed a missile, rocket and drone arsenal potentially
powerful enough to overwhelm Israel’s sophisticated air defenses.
The international community must continue the “strong diplomatic efforts” being taken “to extinguish the conflagration” before it escalates any further, Dr. Helou said. “While this does not preclude the possibility of a large-scale attack, it fosters an environment in which the conflicting parties have to recalculate their moves.”
The United States – Israel’s chief military and economic sponsor, blamed Hezbollah for Saturday’s attack, but
said it was “working on a diplomatic solution” to the tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border – home to over nine months of skirmishes between the IDF and Hezbollah since October.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told journalists on Sunday that there appear to be “no prospects for stopping this bloodshed,” saying Russia “condemns all terrorist actions undertaken by any organization,” and adding that the root cause of the crisis stems from the ongoing war in Gaza and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “unrealistic” plan to “completely destroy” Hamas.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have rejected Israel’s claims about the militia’s purported responsibility for Saturday’s attack, and Beirut has
called for an international investigation.
Israel has
already launched large-scale strikes against Hezbollah positions, and slapped the militia with an
ultimatum on Sunday, demanding a complete withdraw Hezbollah forces from the border area.
This is unrealistic, Dr. Helou said.
“It is very unlikely that Hezbollah will withdraw their forces, specifically the Radwan elite forces, from the borders without a package deal. The group regards Israel to be in a situation conducive for a negotiated settlement, specifically with regards to disputed border points, gas drilling and the [Israeli-occupied] Shebaa Farms. While these topics may not be tabled for discussion in a comprehensive manner, Hezbollah believes that it should receive some concessions before conceding,” the observer explained.
“Moreover, no previous Hezbollah-Israel showdown has witnessed implicit concession-making in the midst of the conflict without the brokerage of an international mediator. Therefore, such resolutions can help resolve the conflict once capable mediators begin to propose the issues that could remedy some of the conflictual matters,” Helou stressed.
Asked to comment on reports from Hezbollah’s allies and friendly media that the attack on Majdal Shams may have been a
“fabricated scenario” designed to distract from Israeli actions in Gaza, or
even a false-flag to justify a full-scale intervention in Lebanon, Dr. Helou said that while he could not confirm the authenticity of such claims, it is clear that “some actors may have an interest in taking action against Hezbollah.”
“The Israeli PM is in a fragile political condition in Israeli politics, a matter that may incentivize him to launch a large-scale attack against Hezbollah to shore up his legitimacy,” Helou said.
Israeli Druze politician and Knesset member Akram Hasson takes the opposite view, expressing certainty about Hezbollah’s responsibility for Saturday's shelling, and support for Netanyahu, saying the PM has promised “that the Israeli army will not stop attacking Lebanon and [are] going to attack Hezbollah very hard.”
“It was a very hard attack. We lost children, four children. Only they played football in the field under the age of 13, 10 years, 11 years, 12 years. And the Druze in the Golan Heights, they are peaceful people. They never have any conflict with Hezbollah or with Lebanon. For that reason it’s very hard for us to accept this attack and we will not be quiet,” Hasson said.
Israeli media investigating Saturday’s incident in Majdal Shams have not questioned the government narrative that Hezbollah was responsible for the attack, but
have asked why the IDF’s Northern Command did not issue an early warning to residents to seek shelter, as typically occurs when an incoming missile or rocket threat is detected.
Partially occupied by Israel since 1967 and formally annexed in 1982, the Golan Heights is home to a large Syrian Druze community. Many Druze continue to reject Israel’s occupation of their communities, refusing Israeli citizenship, service in the military, and holding protests demanding reunification with Syria.
6 October 2018, 18:51 GMT
