When the European Union decided to suspend over $30 billion in funding for Hungary last year, it was perceived as a punitive measure to force Prime Minister Viktor Orban into compliance with the bloc's policies.
However, this action ended up underscoring the Hungarian PM's commitment to Hungary's sovereignty. A year on, the EU is considering releasing about a third of the promised funds, 'acknowledging Hungary's progress', especially in judicial reforms.
Orban has consistently stressed he would not comply with bloc decisions which harm Hungary's interests - which resulted in Budapest blocking the EU’s budget amendment, opposing a €50 billion aid package to Ukraine, and resisting the bloc's expansion.
His approach has influenced the emergence of other European leaders, such as Robert Fico in Slovakia and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, to take a similar tack.
In a foreign policy speech in Budapest on Tuesday, Orban stated, “Hungary doesn’t want to be the pupil of another power, it wants to be its own master....We need to be radical to succeed.” This encapsulates his philosophy towards governance and international relations.
Despite EU attempts to influence Hungarian policies through financial leverage, PM Orban's influence has grown, navigating complex political landscapes and securing a re-election victory in April 2022 amid the Ukrainian conflict.
According to Edit Zgut, assistant professor at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences in Warsaw, the EU's strategy of using legal threats has proven to be ineffective. Orban’s government contends that the EU's rule of law standards are not uniformly applied across member states, challenging the fairness of their actions towards Hungary.
At the same time, in response to EU concerns, Hungary has implemented reforms like enhancing judicial independence and allowing judges greater freedom in referring cases to EU courts. These changes, supported by Hungary's National Judiciary Council, demonstrate Orban's ability to engage with the EU constructively while maintaining his independent stance.
The potential release of approximately €10 billion to Hungary, pending the European Commission's confirmation, is a testament to the Orban government's negotiation skills and compliance with EU requirements, balancing them with national sovereignty.
A key EU leader recently pointed to continued tensions and diminished trust between Hungarian leader Viktor Orban and the European Commission. The situation has been further complicated by the EU's fragmented leadership, making it challenging to align all member states.
Last week, Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, visited Budapest. His mission was to "encourage" Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, to adopt a more compromising stance on Ukraine.
Subsequently, French President Emmanuel Macron is set to speak with Orban in Paris this Thursday to ensure the "success" of the upcoming December 14-15 summit at which the EU is expected to discuss Ukraine's case for membership.