'Slovak Orban': How Fico's Election Win May Bolster EU Divisions on Ukraine
© AFP 2023 / THIERRY CHARLIER
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Former Prime Minister Robert Fico reportedly has good odds of winning in Slovakia's parliamentary elections scheduled for September 30. What would his victory mean for the balance of power in Europe?
A return to power for Robert Fico "could break a key link" in the Western military alliance supporting Ukraine, the US mainstream press has warned.
No More Weapons to Ukraine
Slovakia is a member of the 27-nation EU, the Eurozone and NATO. Bratislava was eager to join Washington's armament spree in Ukraine and sent its Soviet-era S-300 air-defense system, 13 MiG-29 fighter jets, transport helicopters, self-propelled artillery systems, surface-to-air missile systems, radars, infantry fighter vehicles, tanks, missiles, ammo, and MANPADs to the Kiev regime.
However, this bonanza is likely to end for Kiev if Fico's opposition Direction-Social Democracy (Smer) party wins the race, according to Gabor Stier, a foreign policy senior analyst at Hungarian conservative daily Magyar Nemzet and member of the Valdai Discussion Club.
"I don't think there will be much support [of Ukraine if Fico wins]," Stier told Sputnik. "I remember all the planes were handed over to Ukraine; [Slovakia] was in the forefront to criticize Russia. It will not happen. The bullets can still be given away, but the question of weapons will no longer be raised at all, because basically everything has been given away."
Speaking to the press on September 26, Fico lamented the fact that the Slovak Armed Forces are in a deplorable state after Bratislava almost completely exhausted its stockpiles. "We have no combat aircraft, no air defense system, and not enough ammunition," the Smer leader emphasized, adding that he would stop military supplies to Kiev.
Fico does not conceal his skepticism about Ukraine's odds of winning. Per him, sending more arms to Kiev means prolonging the bloodshed. What’s more, the world has started to grow weary of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky because even Kiev's supporters now see that the costly conflict is unacceptable in the long term, Fico noted in a September 29 video message published on social media.
The Smer leader drew attention to the fact that Zelensky was not allowed to address the US Congress during his recent trip in Washington, while in Canada activists held a rally against the Ukrainian president. Fico specifically lambasted Zelensky for greeting WW2 Waffen SS veteran Yaroslav Hunka, referring to the fact that the Ukrainian president's grandfather, Semyon Zelensky heroically fought against Nazis during the war.
"Without hesitation [Zelensky] gave a standing ovation to the fascist, who, if he had personally met [Zelensky's] grandfather, a soldier of the Red Army, during the Second World War, would kill him on the spot," Fico emphasized.
18 September 2023, 16:22 GMT
No More Ukrainian Grain in Slovakia
Fico, along with other Slovak politicians, opposes cheap Ukrainian grain flooding the EU's market, thus dealing a blow to Slovak's domestic agricultural producers.
Most recently, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary extended a ban on Ukrainian grain. Earlier this year, some Eastern and Central European states struck a deal with Brussels to impose restrictions from April until September 15.
In 2022 the EU lifted all tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian agricultural products into the bloc’s 27 member states, justifying the move by the necessity to facilitate its transit to the Global South. However, most food got stuck in Europe, suppressing prices for agricultural products in the Old Continent.
In response to the extension of the ban, Ukraine filed a complaint in the World Trade Organization (WTO) which was denounced by Fico as "the height of impudence and another confirmation that Ukraine is in fact a frivolous partner."
"The neighboring countries did not quite understand why they made a scandal over this grain export," said Stier. "It's because they did not understand that it is vital for these countries that there is no dumping of Ukrainian grain. (…) This means that national interests will be higher than so-called solidarity [with Ukraine]."
18 September 2023, 16:57 GMT
Fico's Social Program is Key to Victory
Still, even though Fico is called a "pro-Russian populist" who is opposing the Ukrainian conflict, the Slovak politician's stance towards Russia and Ukraine does not play a key role in the unfolding election fight, according to Stier.
"I don’t think Fico’s party is leading because they think differently about Ukraine," the scholar said. "The most important thing is his social program."
To begin with, Fico is a Social Democrat, according to Stier. Fico's program contains many elements that are characteristic of social democracy, for example, state compensation for high prices.
"The forces that are now in power adhere to neoliberalism and the liberal economic approach," the scholar explained. "This approach is a pain for most or many Slovaks. This means that [disdain for] this neoliberal economic policy helps Fico in many ways. Against this background, given an acute international situation in a neighboring country [Ukraine] and visible economic consequences throughout Europe, a social democratic party that emphasizes social issues, like the one headed by Fico, can take a lead."
"Not only Slovakia, but the whole of Europe and the countries neighboring Ukraine especially, are tired of the conflict. This also helps Fico. Historically, Slovakia has always been considered the most pro-Russian country in the region. Pan-Slavic sentiments and thinking have historically developed in its society. In addition, Slovakia and the Slovak governments never had any particular problems with Russia (excluding the last years after 2018, when liberals governed the country)."
The latest poll by research firm AKO gave rival party Progressive Slovakia 18% of the vote and 17.7% to Smer; other polls put Smer ahead of the progressives.
"If the Smer party wins, it will be 1%, maximum 2% more than Progressive Slovakia," Stier projected. "But it is also possible that Progressive Slovakia will receive a little more at the last minute."
22 September 2023, 19:02 GMT
Who Could Join Fico's Coalition if He Wins?
Smer's win wouldn't mean an immediate victory as it would need to create a coalition with other parties to form a government, according to the foreign policy analyst.
"If we look at the ideological similarities, then this is [Peter] Pellegrini's party [Hlas (Voice)], because they ruled the country together – Pellegrini had the post of prime minister. They, to put it mildly, do not like each other, this is an obstacle. But in politics this can be overcome. Fico already had one government with the right. And today it is also possible; (…) the Slovak National Party and the Republic, in my opinion, will be happy to be together with Fico in the same government."
Previously, the Western press hinted that Pellegrini's Hlas appeared to drop its objections to joining a coalition with Fico's Smer.
Why is Fico Called a 'Slovak Orban'?
Politically, Fico and Orban belong to different camps: the former is a social democrat, and the latter is a conservative, according to Stier. However, the crux of the matter is that their national interests are the same, and Fico will defend them, like Orban, the analyst continued. Hence he is called a Slovak Orban.
"This, of course, is a simplification; we will not forget that once in the 2000s, during the premiership of Fico, relations between Hungary and Slovakia were, to put it mildly, tense," noted Stier. "But now their interests coincide."
The Hungarian premier and the Slovak politician have similar views with regard to the EU's liberal agenda, the Ukrainian conflict and the migrant problem, to name but a few.
Per Stier, one could easily imagine that under Fico, Bratislava's attitude to Kiev would change. Even though Slovakia would continue to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine and support Ukrainians it is likely to take a tougher stance against the Kiev authorities and the West's military adventurism in Eastern Europe, according to the analyst.
Given the "threat" that Slovakia may break down with the European "mainstream", the forthcoming elections have stolen the headlines of the leading Western media, according to the scholar.
For Brussels and Washington, Fico's victory would mean that they would have to cope with "two Orbans" at once. In addition, the EU still cannot rein in Polish conservatives, who are also rocking the European boat (despite being staunch supporters of military aid to Kiev).
"This is a problem for today's Brussels. This is a problem for the United States, because it will be more difficult to maintain European unity, because it will be more difficult to put them in line, because then it will not be enough to just increase pressure on Orban and the Kaczyńskis [the Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party]. Plus there will be Fico. This makes the tasks of the Western bloc more difficult," Stier concluded.
30 August 2023, 11:20 GMT
