Emmanuel Macron’s current posturing over the Ukraine conflict is “more political than economical,” a pundit says.
Alexis Poulin, a leading EU policy analyst and Co-Editor of Le Monde Moderne magazine, told Sputnik that the Ensemble! Coalition that includes Macron’s Renaissance party is expected to face an uphill battle in the European Parliament election in June.
“I think the stance on Ukraine is clearly to mark two camps, one that is pro-European and pro-Ukraine and the other that would be anti-European and pro-Russia, the Rassemblement National," Poulin said. "There is also a lot of unrest within the French farmers, and this is not addressed so far.”
Recent polls show support for reducing arms supplies to Ukraine has surged among the French by 10 percent compared to last June.
Against the backdrop of France’s major economic downturn, it is unsurprising that the French are “dissatisfied by Macron policies and their results,” Poulin said.
The French President prompted a huge backlash last week when he hinted at the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine — although many pundits perceived that as “posturing.” Critics warned that the outcome could be “a de facto declaration of war” that could lead to “a full scale military conflict between Russia and several European countries.”
Macron appears determined to champion the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, aiding and abetting the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev.
The French Ministry of Defense has revealed the total amount of military aid given to Ukraine between 24 February 2022 and 31 December 2023, amounting to a staggering €3.8 billion, including Paris’ contribution to the European Peace Facility (EPF).
Starting with personal equipment, such as helmets and optical systems, the aid expanded to lethal weaponry such as anti-tank systems, artillery, ammunition, ground-to-air defense, Mistral and Crotale-NG air defense systems, and air-to-surface SCALP cruise missiles. France has also been training Ukrainian troops, with nearly 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers instructed by the French military in Poland and in France.
However, Macron’s generosity when it comes to supporting Ukraine is not doing him any favors at home. The French president’s attempts to revive flagging Western support for military and financial aid to Ukraine, coupled with troubles on the domestic front such as his handling of the French farmers' protests, have further eroded his authority.
Last year France joined Germany among the Kiev regime’s patrons paying the price for their readiness to toe Washington's line on backfiring anti-Russia sanctions.
French production plunged for the first time in the past 1.5 years, a S&P Global survey revealed last August, following a similar pattern to Germany. The headline Flash France PMI Composite Output Index slumped below the 50.0 dividing line between growth and recession. Private-sector activity dropped more than expected to to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Soaring food inflation also triggered an unprecedented decline in food consumption, which fell by 4.6 percent in 2022 compared to 2021 according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).
“The problem is that with this decline there is more unrest within France and the trouble with the French falling into poverty," Poulin said. "You have associations, serving food to people who come for food, saying that they can't make sure that they'll find enough money to finish the year. And yet, with this unrest, you could have the so-called populist party adding more and more voters.”
In a major shift in French domestic politics, recent polling data indicates that Marine Le Pen's RN (National Rally) is likely to become France’s largest political party at the next election, potentially securing up to 30 percent of the vote. This would put them well ahead of Macron's alliance, currently polling at 18 percent.
“The balance clearly is not looking good for Emmanuel Macron's party, especially at this European election where he could have a major defeat, given the figures so far in the polls,” Poulin stressed.
“I think that the European elections have always been quite good for the Rassemblement National. Because of their line which is aligned with Viktor Orban and others being quite anti-EU, in a way,” said Poulin.
"I think the other issue is that you have another list, for the Socialist Party on the left with Raphael Glucksmann who could also get more voters than the party of Emmanuel Macron," the pundit added. "A lot of people on the left spectrum voted for Macron and they are very disappointed by his policies. And they could vote for [Place Publique party leader Raphael] Glucksmann. And I think that is the main fear also, apart from Rassemblement National being the number one party in the European elections.”
Macron claims the RN is" a party affiliated to Russia, the party that is not working for the French interests... which is totally false," Poulin noted, but only as a way of "saving at least some electorate."
“People are not that stupid. They know that it's purely political in a way,” he said.
The RN's manifesto resonates with the French public, “especially on the immigration files, saying that much more must be done,” the expert argued, as does a “a more cautious approach to international relations, given that Emmanuel Macron is clearly on the Washington line and even further, with NATO. That could resonate even more.”
“So there is a lot going on and it's pushing, I think, the party of madame Le Pen to be the number one opposition party, to some extent. But I don't think it's that good for Emmanuel Macron's electorate. They want more than a geopolitical and international stance on Ukraine,” Poulin concluded.