The Ukrainians clearly had a motive in attacking the Crocus City Hall, believes David Pyne, former US Department of Defense officer and executive vice president of Task Force on National & Homeland Security.
"I think Ukraine has become increasingly desperate with its increasing losses on the battlefield in terms of men, material and territory," Pyne told Sputnik. "It seems to have gone rogue of late and while the US has pressured Ukraine to stop these deep strike attacks against Russia including strikes on Russian oil refineries, Biden has done little to get Ukraine back under control."
According to the ex-DoD officer, the main rationale for the alleged Ukrainian-sponsored terrorist attack could be to provoke Russia to overreact and engage in a major escalation which could provide a pretext for NATO's further interference in the conflict.
Prior to the attack, NATO resorted to increasingly bellicose rhetoric with the American and European foreign policy establishment peddling the idea of Russia planning to take on NATO member states if it is "allowed" to win in Ukraine.
"[They doing that] because there is no rational way to justify their decision to reject Putin’s longtime peace offers and [to] prolong the war in Ukraine unnecessarily, because US and NATO security interests are not threatened over Russia’s continued border dispute with Ukraine, other than to falsely claim Russia is planning on attacking NATO. I think most Western leaders understand that their claims of future unprovoked Russian aggression against NATO are patently untrue but they continue to peddle such propaganda to further their perceived political interests."
Soon after the Crocus City Hall terror attack, some Western mainstream media sources rushed to claim that Moscow wants to weaponize the tragedy in order to rally public support for "mass mobilization" and large-scale offensive maneuvers.
While Western leaders do not want a direct war with Russia, they are "essentially playing chicken with Russia trying to falsely paint Russia as the new bogeyman of Europe to help unify NATO and keep it under US domination and control," according to Pyne.
In addition, the West may be seeking to turn the tables prior to possible peace talks with Russia.
NATO Boots on the Ground Possible?
French President Emmanuel Macron's remarks not to rule out sending NATO troops to Ukraine could be seen as "strategic signaling", Pyne noted.
"Of course, there is no possible way that NATO could ever declare war on Russia unless it were to invade NATO because several NATO members would vote against going to war with Russia," he emphasized. "Accordingly, any NATO expeditionary force crossing into Ukraine would not be a NATO authorized but merely an ad hoc force of tens of thousands of British, French and Polish troops possibly supported by a US no-fly zone over western and central Ukraine."
In an unlikely but still possible scenario NATO troops may intervene "to preserve Zelenksy’s continued control of the 55% of Ukrainian territory north and west of the Dnepr River with Ukrainian forces withdrawing from eastern Ukraine entirely," the military analyst explained.
"Under such a scenario, participating NATO member states would most likely refrain from conducting any attacks against Russian forces on the left bank of the river unless NATO forces were first attacked. The US would then be forced to allow eastern Ukraine to become a neutral buffer zone separating NATO and Russia while western and central Ukraine remained under NATO influence," he presumed.
Perhaps, the Kiev regime and some of its Western backers need a pretext to overcome NATO allies' resistance to step in and send some forces to Ukraine.
NATO Expanding Eastward
NATO is seemingly raising stakes by expanding its presence both in the Baltic Sea, following Finland and Sweden's admission to the alliance, and in the Black Sea where a big new military base is being constructed near the Romanian port city of Constanta.
As per Pyne, NATO has long been seeking to beef up its presence in the seas.
"This has long been a goal of US leaders for the past decade to expand NATO’s presence in both the Baltic and Black Seas," the ex-Pentagon officer explained. "I don’t believe NATO will ever deploy sufficient naval forces in the Black Sea to sufficiently challenge Russian control. Rather, I think the US objective is limited to trying to exert greater control over the western Black Sea approaches to the Mediterranean Sea."
"US leaders do not view this as an aggressive move against Russia and have no intention of starting a war with Russia. Rather, they are merely trying to expand the US sphere of influence to Russia’s western frontiers while cementing US domination over NATO’s front-line member states, increasing their reliance on the US for their defense and giving them more reasons to follow the US line in matters of defense and foreign policy."
At the same time, the alliance may be boosting its negotiating positions for future talks over Ukraine this way.
Russian Victory 'Inevitable'
The unfolding maneuvers by NATO member states still cannot prevent Russia from prevailing in the Ukraine conflict, according to the military expert.
From the very beginning of the conflict Pyne has repeatedly stated in his interviews with Sputnik that Ukraine had no chance of winning.
"Russian victory over Ukraine has always been inevitable," he said. "Indeed, Russia essentially won the war by the end of 2022 and Ukraine and its NATO backers have refused to recognize Ukraine’s military defeat and until late last year continued to falsely claim that Ukrainian victory was still possible."
He believes that the Biden administration wants to prolong the conflict until after the November 2024 presidential election after which Team Biden plans to negotiate a peace settlement with Moscow (assuming that Biden wins his re-election bid). Time will tell how the Biden administration's apparent plan will pan out.