US–Israeli War Against Iran (February 28, 2026–Present)
On February 28, 2026, explosions occurred in five Iranian cities: Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The residence of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was completely destroyed by a direct hit.
Israel carried out a preemptive strike on Iran. Targets included nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, as well as IRGC headquarters, air defense bases, and military-industrial sites. Israel named its military operation Roaring Lion. Documented evidence emerged showing that missiles struck not only military targets, but also civilian infrastructure in Iran.
US launched strikes against the Iranian Armed Forces using Tomahawk missiles from warships; drones and HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems were also used. Guided missile destroyers USS Spruance, USS Frank E. Petersen, and USS Milius operated against Iran. In total, US ships fired up to 200 Tomahawk missiles in the first two days of the war. The number intercepted by Iranian air defenses was not reported.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described the operation against Iran as a struggle of the “good guys” [meaning himself and US President Donald Trump] against the “bad guys” [meaning Iran]. The US–Israeli attack would supposedly help the “brave Iranian people take their fate into their own hands,” aiming for a change of power in the country, the Israeli prime minister said.
Targets included: |
Israeli naval forces in Haifa and the Ramat David airbase; |
headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain; |
infrastructure of Dubai International Airport and Port of Jebel Ali in the UAE, where a fire broke out; |
facilities in Kuwait, where the attack resulted in the deaths of three US servicemen. |
Versions and Investigation: |
Iran accused the US and Israel of a war crime and described its retaliatory strikes on March 6 as revenge for the children of Minab. |
The US initially denied involvement; moreover, Trump suggested that the strike could have been carried out by Iran itself, but a subsequent internal Pentagon investigation indicated a high probability that the strike was carried out by the US military. |
American media reported that the US and Israel may have carried out an airstrike on the girls’ school in southern Iran, mistakenly classifying it as a military target due to an intelligence miscalculation or an AI algorithm failure. |
- From March 3 to 10, the IRGC attacked a US airbase in Bahrain with missiles and drones, and also struck Israeli targets: the Army headquarters in Caesarea, sites in Bnei Brak, Petah Tikva, Western Galilee, Ben Gurion Airport, and the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv.
- IRGC stated that the attacks had reached a new level with the use of strategic and hypersonic missiles (Ghadr, Emad, Fattah, Kheibar Shekan). The Iranian Aerospace Forces command noted that warheads would now weigh no less than one ton. Iran used its newest heavy missile the Khorramshahr-4 (range—2,000 km, warhead—1,500 kg) against targets in Israel.
- Iran carried out its 22nd wave of attacks using Khorramshahr-4 and Fattah missiles. The IRGC announced the destruction of THAAD missile defense radars in the UAE and Jordan, as well as an AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar.
- Distinctive feature of the current military operation has been the use of AI technology. As a spokesperson for the US Central Command stated, AI is used for initial data processing to highlight what requires human attention. The decision to select a target and carry out a strike is made by a human.
- US Central Command confirmed the first use of high-precision PrSM (Precision Strike Missiles). The system is a development of ATACMS ballistic missiles, but compared to its predecessor, it can travel 200 km farther. Its range is up to 500 km, and is launched from the HIMARS mobile platform.
- Another debut involved a new development—the LUCAS kamikaze drone. It is a clone of Iran’s well-known Shahed drone. According to media reports, the cost per unit is $35,000.
The military operation against Iran has intensified polarization in the international community amid other crises and conflicts. While Iran’s partners Russia and China condemned the attack, Western and regional US allies placed responsibility for the escalation on Iran, which carried out retaliatory strikes.
- The conflict had led to heavy human losses and a large-scale humanitarian crisis.
- According to official Iranian data, at least 1,348 civilians have been killed and more than 17,000 people injured. The independent agency HRANA reports higher figures: at least 1,825 dead, including 1,276 civilians, among them 200 children, as well as 197 military personnel.
- Fighting has also affected neighboring countries. In Israel, 12 people have been killed, including four children, as well as two soldiers in Lebanon. Lebanon itself has lost at least 687 people (including 98 children and 52 women) and three military personnel. In the Persian Gulf countries, 24 people have been killed, including 11 civilians and seven US servicemen. In Iraq, 31 people have been killed.
- number of direct deaths across the region has exceeded 2,000. However, the humanitarian catastrophe inside Iran has been even more extensive: according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, up to 3.2 million people have been forced to leave their homes, becoming internally displaced persons.
The killing of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani on March 17 will not cause critical damage to the country’s leadership, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.
“I do not know why the Americans and Israelis still have not understood this point: the Islamic Republic of Iran has a strong political structure with established political, economic, and social institutions.”
Araghchi also recalled the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, after which the system continued to function.
Brent crude prices on the London exchange exceeded $100 per barrel on March 12—the highest level since summer 2024. The reason for this is military activity in the Persian Gulf: attacks on tankers off the coast of Iraq led to a temporary halt of Iraqi ports, and a terminal in Oman was evacuated. The market is reacting more strongly to the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz than to stabilization efforts (such as the IEA’s decision to release reserves).
Amid the geopolitical instability, investors are moving into safe-haven assets. Gold reached a new all-time high of $5,213 per ounce (+77% year-on-year). Silver rose to $88.59, and platinum hit $2,202. Fitch Ratings raised its forecast for gold in 2026 to $4,500 per ounce, citing active purchases by central banks and investors.
