https://sputnikglobe.com/20231011/americans-thirsty-for-independent-candidates-but-kennedy-faces-big-challenges-to-ballot-access-1114110344.html
Americans ‘Thirsty’ for Independent Candidates, But Kennedy Faces Big Challenges to Ballot Access
Americans ‘Thirsty’ for Independent Candidates, But Kennedy Faces Big Challenges to Ballot Access
Sputnik International
The campaign of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has the potential to invigorate disaffected voters, especially on the Right, but steep restrictions on ballot access created by the two US parties could make it impossible for him to win.
2023-10-11T18:11+0000
2023-10-11T18:11+0000
2023-10-11T18:13+0000
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On Tuesday, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced he was leaving the Democratic presidential primary race and launching an independent campaign for the US presidency in the November 2024 elections. Kennedy had been polling a distant second place in the Democratic race, with most liberal voters opting for the incumbent, US President Joe Biden.Kennedy is the second high-profile candidate to announce an Independent race after progressive academic and public intellectual Cornel West said last week he was leaving the Green Party’s ticket to launch a separate bid. Other independent candidates have also thrown their hat in the ring recently, including Claudia de la Cruz of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, a small communist party that in 2020 secured the most votes of any socialist candidate since the 1970s.However, upon the announcement, Kennedy’s family, a powerful one in US politics, issued a joint statement denouncing him as “perilous for our country.”Ryan Cristian, the founder and editor of The Last American Vagabond and a recipient of the Sabrina Shim Awards for uncompromising integrity in journalism, told Sputnik that RFK Jr.’s campaign was likely to invigorate many voters who feel unseen in the two-party presidential races, but that institutional structures would make it difficult for him to become a real threat to the Democratic or Republican candidates.Despite Kennedy now being bereft of the massive Democratic National Committee funding apparatus, Cristian said he felt like the candidate “has a shot” at winning as an independent candidate, too.“I mean, I have my criticism of RFK Jr. as well, but I think this is going to benefit him,” he said.“Especially Democrats, I think, have been aware of what's been going on with the DNC for a long time. But my opinion is [that] all sides of the paradigm - the two-party illusion, as I would call it - but ultimately that an independent, I think is going to resonate more with most Americans,” Cristian said. “One thing people don't fail to recognize in this country is that one of the largest voting blocs that exists is people that don't even participate in the election. And then we have people that are voting, and of the people that participate - one of the largest parts in that are people that are independent. You know, we only ever get two sides of this conversation. So I think Americans have been thirsty for something like this for a long time.”While there are numerous smaller independent candidates in every presidential election, most tend to poll fairly low, with less than 2% of votes. However, in the 1990s, billionaire businessman Ross Perot ran in two elections as a third party candidate, netting 18.9% of the popular vote in 1996. Perot’s campaign was largely self-financed - an option that RFK Jr. doesn’t have, despite his family name.“I think there's two different ways to look at this: you have the side of it that is just people and the engagement of Americans. So that's what I'm ultimately talking about, is I, quite frankly, think aside from what will be weaponized against him, that most Americans want this kind of different perspective and are very aware of the game that's played of back-and-forth politics. That's my point: to most people who don't even want to participate because of how artificial it feels to most Americans, and there's polls all over the place that will make this clear. But the difference you're talking about - I agree, and it's a valid point - is that the system itself is set up in such a way that makes this [so] impossible. But I'm hoping that we can see something change.”“I mean, quite frankly, this is something that I've been worrying about, the third party idea being used against Americans in a way that might be surreptitious. But ultimately, I think that people are ready for it. And I argue that if it does work, it'll be largely because people inside the structure recognize a benefit to themselves politically or in creating a new dynamic to themselves going forward. They might lean into that. Otherwise, people that would have otherwise been invested in the classic structure... Because I think we all kind of feel that this thing is falling apart to a degree. But you make valid points. I argue that's probably one of the more likely situations: that this will be weaponized against him and he'll end up in a similar situation, and like Perot, people will probably argue he was used to remove votes from somebody else - which, I don't think that's what's happening, actually.”Cristian said it was “hard to say” which major party was more concerned about the threat Kennedy now poses with an independent campaign.An IPSOS poll published last week found that in a hypothetical three-way race between Biden, Trump, and Kennedy, RFK Jr. would get 14% of the vote, while Biden would take 31%, and Trump 33%. However, if Kennedy were removed, Biden and Trump would each get 35%, with 11% saying they would vote for some third-party candidate.Political activist, organizer, and radio host Misty Winston told Sputnik that a major factor in Kennedy’s success would likely be the fate of former US President Donald Trump, the GOP pack leader and presumed nominee who is facing dozens of felony charges in four separate court cases.“I feel like there's a couple variables that go into that equation, because I feel like if the GOP does, in fact, nominate Donald Trump - listen, Trump supporters are incredibly loyal, they're not going anywhere, they're going to stick with Trump. However, if Trump is not, for whatever reason, the nominee - if he's in jail, if he's, you know, for whatever whatever reason, he is not the GOP nominee - I think that that could switch things a little bit,” she explained. “So I think if Trump is the nominee, I think definitely Kennedy is going to hurt Democrats more. I think that if [Trump] is not the nominee, I think [Kennedy] is going to hurt the GOP more.”“I don't think he's going to hurt either one bad enough to where it's going to make any significant difference. I think that all of this is a lot of pearl-clutching over nothing,” she pointed out. “He's going to be very lucky to even get ballot access. I mean, it's going to be a mountain to climb just to get ballot access. So I think that this is a lot of, you know, much ado about nothing. And the same with Cornel West.”“Now that Cornel West is running as an independent - which, I still don't understand that decision. He went from a party that at least has like 30 states’ ballot access to zero. And it is really difficult to get ballot access in all 50 states. It is an incredibly difficult task. It costs a lot of money, you’ve got to get a lot of signatures, it is ridiculous. So, Kennedy's not going to be on all 50 ballots, Cornel West is not going to be on all 50 ballots. Will they be on enough ballots to make an impact in certain states? Maybe. But I just don't think that it's going to be all that significant.”For more in-depth analysis, tune in to our radio broadcast!
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Americans ‘Thirsty’ for Independent Candidates, But Kennedy Faces Big Challenges to Ballot Access
18:11 GMT 11.10.2023 (Updated: 18:13 GMT 11.10.2023) The campaign of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has the potential to invigorate many disaffected voters, especially on the right, but steep restrictions on ballot access created by the two main US parties could make it impossible for him to win, political analysts told Sputnik.
On Tuesday, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced he was leaving the Democratic presidential primary race and launching an independent campaign for the US presidency in the November 2024 elections. Kennedy had been polling a distant second place in the Democratic race, with most liberal voters opting for the incumbent, US President Joe Biden.
“We declare independence from the cynical elites who betray our hope and who amplify our divisions," Kennedy said at an event in Philadelphia. “And finally, we declare independence from the two political parties.”
Kennedy is the second high-profile candidate to announce an Independent race after progressive academic and
public intellectual Cornel West said last week he was leaving the Green Party’s ticket to launch a separate bid. Other independent candidates have also thrown their hat in the ring recently, including
Claudia de la Cruz of the Party for Socialism and Liberation, a small communist party that in 2020 secured the most votes of any socialist candidate since the 1970s.
However, upon the announcement, Kennedy’s family, a powerful one in US politics, issued a
joint statement denouncing him as “perilous for our country.”
Ryan Cristian, the founder and editor of The Last American Vagabond and a recipient of the Sabrina Shim Awards for uncompromising integrity in journalism,
told Sputnik that RFK Jr.’s campaign was likely to invigorate many voters who feel unseen in the two-party presidential races, but that institutional structures would make it difficult for him to become a real threat to the Democratic or Republican candidates.
Despite Kennedy now being bereft of the massive Democratic National Committee funding apparatus, Cristian said he felt like the candidate “has a shot” at winning as an independent candidate, too.
“I mean, I have my criticism of RFK Jr. as well, but I think this is going to benefit him,” he said.
“I felt like he had a shot running as a Democrat. I feel like he has a shot. I mean, I feel like he had more of a shot if he would have started out running as an independent, quite frankly, I find it almost half-hearted to do so now. I understand the logic of it now, especially since the party seems to have bucked him from the beginning, but I think he kind of knew that going into it,” Cristian said.
“Especially Democrats, I think, have been aware of what's been going on with the DNC for a long time. But my opinion is [that] all sides of the paradigm - the two-party illusion, as I would call it - but ultimately that an independent, I think is going to resonate more with most Americans,” Cristian said. “One thing people don't fail to recognize in this country is that one of the largest voting blocs that exists is people that don't even participate in the election. And then we have people that are voting, and of the people that participate - one of the largest parts in that are people that are independent. You know, we only ever get two sides of this conversation. So I think Americans have been thirsty for something like this for a long time.”
While there are numerous smaller independent candidates in every presidential election, most tend to poll fairly low, with less than 2% of votes. However, in the 1990s,
billionaire businessman Ross Perot ran in two elections as a third party candidate, netting 18.9% of the popular vote in 1996. Perot’s campaign was largely self-financed - an option that RFK Jr. doesn’t have, despite his family name.
“I would assume he probably has the resources to make something like that happen, but I'm not going to speak to inside information about what he might be able to do, I wouldn't know. But I think what you're ultimately asking is my point about why this will help him or not.”
“I think there's two different ways to look at this: you have the side of it that is just people and the engagement of Americans. So that's what I'm ultimately talking about, is I, quite frankly, think aside from what will be weaponized against him, that most Americans want this kind of different perspective and are very aware of the game that's played of back-and-forth politics. That's my point: to most people who don't even want to participate because of how artificial it feels to most Americans, and there's polls all over the place that will make this clear. But the difference you're talking about - I agree, and it's a valid point - is that the system itself is set up in such a way that makes this [so] impossible. But I'm hoping that we can see something change.”
5 October 2023, 03:54 GMT
“I mean, quite frankly, this is something that I've been worrying about, the third party idea being used against Americans in a way that might be surreptitious. But ultimately, I think that people are ready for it. And I argue that if it does work, it'll be largely because people inside the structure recognize a benefit to themselves politically or in creating a new dynamic to themselves going forward. They might lean into that. Otherwise, people that would have otherwise been invested in the classic structure... Because I think we all kind of feel that this thing is falling apart to a degree. But you make valid points. I argue that's probably one of the more likely situations: that this will be weaponized against him and he'll end up in a similar situation, and like Perot, people will probably argue he was used to remove votes from somebody else - which, I don't think that's what's happening, actually.”
Cristian said it was “hard to say” which major party was more concerned about the threat Kennedy now poses with an independent campaign.
“I think that at the moment, I think it's clear he has much more support from the right, and I think that probably threatens them. But I think even his own statements - he says they're both right, he's going to go after both sides' votes, right? And I think they're both concerned about it because - again, same point - people are interested in something different. That's why [in 2016] Trump resonated with a lot of people, because as much as I don't think it was necessarily honest, he came out and said what people wanted to hear in a different way. It wasn't the politician kind of an argument, right? So I think that right now both of them are very concerned that at the very least, he'll pull away some of their votes, which will then affect whether or not they can be elected. But if I had to pick, I would say probably the right, because I do think he aligns much more with the ‘medical freedom’ side that's much more on the right of this conversation.”
An
IPSOS poll published last week found that in a hypothetical three-way race between Biden, Trump, and Kennedy, RFK Jr. would get 14% of the vote, while Biden would take 31%, and Trump 33%. However, if Kennedy were removed, Biden and Trump would each get 35%, with 11% saying they would vote for some third-party candidate.
Political activist, organizer, and radio host Misty Winston told Sputnik that a major factor in Kennedy’s success would likely be the fate of former US President Donald Trump, the GOP pack leader and presumed nominee who is facing dozens of felony charges in four separate court cases.
“I feel like there's a couple variables that go into that equation, because I feel like if the GOP does, in fact, nominate Donald Trump - listen, Trump supporters are incredibly loyal, they're not going anywhere, they're going to stick with Trump. However, if Trump is not, for whatever reason, the nominee - if he's in jail, if he's, you know, for whatever whatever reason, he is not the GOP nominee - I think that that could switch things a little bit,” she explained. “So I think if Trump is the nominee, I think definitely Kennedy is going to hurt Democrats more. I think that if [Trump] is not the nominee, I think [Kennedy] is going to hurt the GOP more.”
10 October 2023, 16:10 GMT
“Listen, if you look at polling, he has, generally speaking, more support from Republicans. However, I think that that support isn't going to go very far if Trump is the nominee - because, again, Trump supporters are very loyal,” Winston told Sputnik. “I think a lot of Republicans would rather vote for Kennedy than they would for [Florida Governor Ron] DeSantis or [former Vice President] Mike Pence or [former UN Ambassador] Nikki Haley or any of the other characters from the clown car on the GOP side.”
“I don't think he's going to hurt either one bad enough to where it's going to make any significant difference. I think that all of this is a lot of pearl-clutching over nothing,” she pointed out. “He's going to be very lucky to even get ballot access. I mean, it's going to be a mountain to climb just to get ballot access. So I think that this is a lot of, you know, much ado about nothing. And the same with Cornel West.”
“Now that Cornel West is running as an independent - which, I still don't understand that decision. He went from a party that at least has like 30 states’ ballot access to zero. And it is really difficult to get ballot access in all 50 states. It is an incredibly difficult task. It costs a lot of money, you’ve got to get a lot of signatures, it is ridiculous. So, Kennedy's not going to be on all 50 ballots, Cornel West is not going to be on all 50 ballots. Will they be on enough ballots to make an impact in certain states? Maybe. But I just don't think that it's going to be all that significant.”
For more in-depth analysis, tune in to our radio broadcast! 
