Israel Not Prepared for Hezbollah’s Second Front - Alastair Crooke
14:55 GMT 12.10.2023 (Updated: 10:27 GMT 30.01.2024)
© AP Photo / Hassan Ammar
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Hezbollah may open a second front against Israel amid Tel Aviv's war with Hamas, former British diplomat and MI6 agent Alastair Crooke told Sputnik's New Rules podcast.
The Lebanese Shiite militant group Hezbollah may raise the stakes in the Israel-Hamas war by getting directly involved in the conflict.
Over the past few days, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah fighters have been exchanging strikes across Lebanon’s southern border. The clashes came after Hamas' surprise attack on Israeli cities from the Gaza Strip on October 7 and Tel Aviv's retaliation. The question is whether the Shiite militants will resort to a direct military intervention in Israel in a show of solidarity with Hamas.
"There has been some direct military intervention," former British diplomat and MI6 agent Alastair Crooke told Sputnik. "Hezbollah, a few days ago, two or three days ago, destroyed three Israeli radar base posts. These were in the Shebaa Farms area, which is recognized as Lebanese territory, but is occupied by Israel."
"There was an Israeli response, and now we've moved to a response by Hezbollah that ended up with firing on military bases inside Israel. And with the reaction of Israel to killing three of the Hezbollah cadres. And Hezbollah says they will react to that and they will respond by killing three Israelis. I mean, it's very reminiscent for me of what started the 2006 war. If you recall, it was Hezbollah taking two soldiers, they slipped across the border and took two Israelis hostage in reaction for what Israel was doing in Lebanon at that point. So, it's quite sort of similar. Hezbollah said it very clearly. Hassan Nasrallah has said ‘If Israel goes into Gaza militarily, then we will open a front, the next front.’ Most people, including I interpret that as quite a clear red line."
Hezbollah is both a political party and militant group that was formed in 1982, during the 15-year Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), and earned the name "state-within-a-state" due to its sophisticated security apparatus, well-trained fighters, and political organization. Since its inception, Hezbollah has been involved in a continuous fight against Israel over what it called the "occupation" of Palestine.
12 October 2023, 11:05 GMT
In 2006, the month-long Israel-Hezbollah war erupted, precipitated by the Lebanese militant group’s cross-border raid on an Israeli military patrol on July 12, 2006. A UN-brokered ceasefire was agreed by the warring parties on August 14, 2006, while on September 8, 2006, Israel lifted its naval blockade of Lebanon. Per Crooke, the IDF was outperformed by Hezbollah at the time.
"In 2006, [the IDF] lost the war and Hezbollah had the technological advantage over them," the ex-MI6 agent said. "They were intercepting the Israeli military communications. They were intercepting deciphered messages coming to from Tel Aviv to Beirut. They had the security, Hezbollah's operational practices. It was a defeat [for Israel] and the army was not very impressive. There were times when they didn't even manage to provide for the reserves that arrived – there was no food, and there was no transport for them. It was a bit like this last weekend. It was pretty chaotic. And look what we saw [this past weekend]. Again, a former senior military officer in Israel said, 'Look, this time, the command and control structure of the army just collapsed, when Hamas broke through the Erez crossing, it just collapsed and there were no troops, and there was no ability to respond at all.' They just saw an implosion. So, it's not really that great."
11 October 2023, 19:03 GMT
Israel Intelligence Lapses Speak Volumes
Furthermore, the Israeli intelligence failure to proactively thwart the Hamas attack suggests the erosion of intelligence capabilities and understanding of the situation on the ground, according to Crooke. It appears that despite Tel Aviv and Washington's top notch technology, the nations' spies failed to correctly interpret the massive volumes of intelligence data. Crooke explained that the shift over to artificial intelligence (AI) as a means of intelligence gathering "has not been very successful, neither in Ukraine for the Americans and for NATO and computer modeling efforts."
"Nor has it for the Israelis, because there comes a point when you have so much information and data bits and everything like this that you don't have a clear picture," the former British intelligence operative emphasized.
To understand how people are thinking one needs "emotional intelligence" and some sort of empathy, and not just the AI-collected data, according to him.
"I saw this in the past," Crooke said. "The West is finding it harder and harder to understand, to empathize with other, if you like, civilizations, whether it's Russian or Iranian. They reduce it to a sort of instrumentalism that they can do it, and think if they collect enough data points, they will understand how Russia thinks and how Iran thinks. And of course, they don't get into the mindset. They don't get into the way of thinking, which is quite different. Even the language is quite different. And the capabilities of AI to understand symbolic meaning, and let alone some of the sort of esoteric elements of Islamic meaning – it just depends on who's writing the AI. But for sure, it will be someone who's lived all their life in the Western sphere and finds this all a mystery."
8 October 2023, 05:52 GMT
What if Hezbollah Joins Israel-Hamas War?
If Hezbollah does intervene, it would be an unpleasant surprise for Tel Aviv, according to Crooke.
"I know that sounds [like] a sort of contrarian view, but I think this is not unexpected what's happening," the ex-MI6 agent said. "It's been planned. I would think that Hezbollah have surprises up their sleeve and I can't even guess at what they are. They might actually invade Israel. It's quite possible they would do that. They have 100,000 troops, all experienced. They've been fighting in Syria against ISIS* (Daesh*) for a long time. They're experienced, they're very sophisticated technically. I don't know what they'll do. Look, even little Hamas sort of flew its people on hang gliders across the fence, which I think took everyone, including me, by surprise. And I'm sure Hezbollah have got creative ideas as well."
It appears that the US and its allies are well-aware of the potential threat: the Biden administration made it clear that the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group and, possibly, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and accompanying warships, is not aimed at Hamas, but at Hezbollah and Iran.
Per the US press, Washington and its Western allies, including France, have conveyed messages through informal channels to the Lebanese Shiite group warning it against joining Hamas in the unfolding war. Officially, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the US issued a joint statement on Monday which said: "[T]his is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage."
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) warned the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict or allowing militant groups to launch attacks on Israel from Syrian soil. Per the Western media, Hezbollah could maintain a substantial military presence in the Syrian Arab Republic. Last year, the UAE normalized its relations with Damascus and backed Syria's readmission in the Arab League. At the same time, the UAE maintains working relations with Tel Aviv, being part of the 2020 Abraham Accords.
If Hezbollah nonetheless decides to enter the Israel-Hamas war, the escalation could have disastrous consequences for Tel Aviv, Crooke believes. The next several weeks will show how the conflict will evolve:
"I think that what I would see playing out would be a quagmire in Gaza, into which the Israeli forces find themselves struggling to really make progress," the former British intelligence agent said. "There will be claims of great successes and progress, but will they be real? Do they really have all that intelligence on Hamas? It seems perhaps they don't. And I think that is one aspect. I think that we need to watch very carefully what happens with Hezbollah in the north. Hezbollah has a huge arsenal of missiles, something like 80,000 cruise missiles and smart drones. They would be a formidable ally. In fact, I think it was Giora Eiland [former head of the IDF’s Planning Directorate] who said that if Hezbollah joins this conflict, opens a front, this would present an existential threat to the future of Israel."
*ISIS (ISIL/Daesh/Islamic State) is a terrorist organization banned in Russia and many other countries.
