Prof: Zelensky is Doomed, Western Leaders Came to Ukraine to Test Kiev Regime Viability
© AFP 2023 / OLIVIER MATTHYS
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Foreign leaders have flocked to Kiev, starting with Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and ending with European Council President Charles Michel. What's behind the development?
European Council President Charles Michel arrived in the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday as well as Maia Sandu, president of Moldova. Separately, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius took the train to Kiev to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on an unannounced visit. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin landed in Ukraine on Monday to unveil a new US military aid package worth $100 million for the Ukrainian military. Prior to that, new Foreign Secretary David Cameron made his first trip to the Eastern European country last week.
"Firstly, we must not forget that today all 'progressive' humanity is celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Maidan," Dmitry Evstafiev, political scientist and HSE University professor, told Sputnik with a touch of irony referring to the 2014 February coup in Kiev.
"Therefore, all the main European leaders, in Kiev, in fact, defend the policy that they began 10 years ago to finally turn Ukraine against Russia. This was a very important strategic choice. And this was, first of all, a European choice, not an American one. The Americans simply hijacked the processes that the Europeans launched, hijacked it successfully and effectively in such a way that today's Europe, while still representing something geopolitically, no longer represents anything in terms of geoeconomics."
20 November 2023, 17:48 GMT
Secondly, it has become obvious that the Zelensky regime is becoming "catastrophically toxic" not only for the United States, but also for Europe, Evstafiev continued.
"For the United States, the Zelensky regime has become toxic for quite a while, and it was a very difficult story for the Americans, which turned the issue of supporting, in fact, a radical nationalist, almost dictatorial at that time, and now an overtly dictatorial regime, into one of the most important topics of internal political struggle in the United States," the professor remarked.
Per Evstafiev, Washington is no longer concealing the fact that it wants to turn a Ukraine conflict into a big European war using the desire of the Zelensky regime to somehow survive amid the deteriorating military situation and dwindling US support.
The high-profile visits came at a time when the West has shifted focus on the Palestinian-Israeli standoff, which reportedly frustrated Zelensky. The Western mainstream press has also recently changed its coverage of the conflict from lauding Ukraine to admitting Kiev's failure to proceed with its counteroffensive.
Against this backdrop, European leaders are apparently trying to find out to what extent the Kiev regime is viable and whether it is worth continuing to support Volodymyr Zelensky, the expert said.
"And here there is a second layer to this issue: European leaders want to understand whether they will have their say in the process of replacing Zelensky, or whether this political transformation in Kiev will be carried out, as usual, by two powers – London and Washington. In this sense, of course, the outright incapacity of the German government and the virtual absence of political leadership in Germany becomes a huge problem for Europeans. Nevertheless, Europeans may try to seize on some opportunities in Kiev and try to defend their positions and their interests in the process of changing power in Kiev."
20 November 2023, 15:13 GMT
What Does the UK Want?
According to Evstafiev, the UK does not seek to preserve Ukraine, hence its recommendation to mobilize every male from 17 to 70 years old. London also does not seek to preserve Zelensky's presidency, even though it has much greater influence on Zelensky than influence on General Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian top commander, the professor pointed out.
Zaluzhny's recent interview with the Economist, an influential British publication, was seen by some Sputnik’s interlocutors as a harbinger of forthcoming regime change in Ukraine. Evstafiev underscored that London's goal is simple: it wants to maintain its influence on Kiev whatever it takes. So, if Zelensky becomes toxic he could be replaced by a more popular figure in their view.
20 November 2023, 16:20 GMT
What is the US Goal?
"The task for the United States is much more difficult," the expert assumed. "On the one hand, it is absolutely critical for the United States and, most importantly, for the Biden administration, to enter the election campaign, the primaries, the first Democratic Party caucuses, the first real Democratic Party debate without President Zelensky. This is absolutely important for them."
The professor explained that if Zelensky retains his position by that time, an apparent connection between him and the Biden family will be discussed and used by the Republicans in the struggle for the Oval Office. The corruption story involving the Bidens and Ukraine would be damning for the Democratic Party even if it replaces Biden with another candidate, according to the academic.
On the other hand, Washington needs an anti-Russian regime in Kiev to remain in power in Ukraine up until the November vote in the US, he noted.
"Why? If it collapses, then the entire election strategy of the Democrats would go down the drain. In that case the Democrats would become not just political losers, but geopolitical losers who allowed the United States to suffer the biggest defeat since the Vietnam War. And then their election odds would be zero. Therefore, this is their task, this is the format of their activities [to keep an anti-Russia regime in Ukraine]."
Western Politicians Trying to Calm Electorate
In addition, the unfolding "pilgrimage" to Kiev by Western heavyweights is an attempt to convince the public that their Ukraine adventure wasn't a mistake, per the professor.
"All European politicians […] understand perfectly well that Zelensky’s current state cannot earn much of an image. Another question, it is fundamentally important to show a European man in the street and a voter that the choice that was made by Europe 10 years ago – and it was made not in 2021 or in 2014, but in 2013 – that it was correct, and the European elites, very different in their genesis and political orientation, they all stand like one rock for this choice. But I don't see any opportunity for any European politician who showed up in Kiev – maybe with the exception of Maia Sandu – to earn any political points on their visit to Kiev," Evstafiev concluded.
