Ukraine's Colosseum: West Watching Zelensky-Zaluzhny Fight, Will Give Thumbs Up to Most Malleable
18:50 GMT 29.11.2023 (Updated: 13:44 GMT 25.02.2024)
© Photo : Telegram / Zelensky Official
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Relations between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny are "understood to be terrible," The Economist summed up on Tuesday. How serious is the Ukrainian internal political strife, and what could it result in?
The differences in opinion between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny were first reported in summer last year, per the UK magazine. It appears that tensions have substantially grown since then. What could have led to the current conflict between military and political leadership?
"We can hypothesize at least three reasons," Tiberio Graziani, chairman at Vision & Global Trends - International Institute for Global Analyses, told Sputnik, "the duration of the conflict has worn out the military cadres; the loss of credibility of the current political conduct of the conflict managed by Zelensky and, indirectly by NATO, the EU and the US; the growing awareness among military leaders that negotiations need to be reached."
Blame Game Underway
The British magazine writes that there is a blame game underway in Ukraine about who is responsible for the counteroffensive’s failure. In late October, Ukrainian politician Volodymyr Oleynyk told Sputnik that Zaluzhny didn’t want to be scapegoated for the failed Ukrainian advance, which claimed the lives of over 90,000 Ukrainian troops. After Zelensky pledged to proceed with the offensive through the winter, Zaluzhny insisted it's time to go on the defensive and prepare for a spring advance.
In early November, Zaluzhny gave an extensive interview to The Economist, admitting that what had been expected to become a triumphalist march of the Ukrainian military had ended in a stalemate. "There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough," the top Ukrainian general said.
Immediately after giving the interview, Zaluzhny came under heavy criticism from the Ukrainian presidential office, with Zelensky later issuing a vague warning to "generals" against doing "politics." The British outlet said that relations between Zelensky and Zaluzhny are now "terrible."
27 November 2023, 15:43 GMT
Is Case Being Built Against Zaluzhny?
A series of events appeared to add fuel to the fire. Gennady Chastyakov, assistant to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, died in a "tragic accident" while celebrating his 39th birthday on November 6. Earlier, on November 3, Zelensky unilaterally dismissed Viktor Khorenko, who was known to be close to Zaluzhny, from his post as commander of special operations forces. Likewise, the commander of the medical forces, Tatyana Ostashchenko, was replaced with Anatoly Kazmirchuk by the Kiev regime without consulting Ukraine's top general.
Then, The Washington Post alleged on November 11 that Ukrainian Colonel Roman Chervinsky was the coordinator of the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, citing Ukrainian and European officials, as well as other individuals purportedly familiar with the operation. The newspaper claimed the Ukrainian officer took orders from his seniors, who ultimately reported to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Moreover, the Kiev regime is carrying out an investigation into the Ukrainian Army's failure to withstand Russia's advance in February-March 2022. For now, Zaluzhny has reportedly been named as a witness to the inquiry. Still, the nickname for the inquiry in the Ukrainian press is "Zaluzhny case," suggesting he could become one of the main suspects. Citing a general staff source, The Economist suggested the commander-in-chief's recent "media engagement could be seen as an insurance policy."
"The so-called 'Zaluzhny case' expresses a leadership crisis on the part of the current president and an attempt to offload the political conduct of the war onto the military apparatus," said Graziani. "A new balance can be hypothesized between the Ukrainian Armed Forces and political power: everything depends on how the interests of the Western allies (EU, NATO, UK and US) will influence this crisis. Poland's 'regional' interests must also be taken into account."
Is Zaluzhny a Potential Alternative to Zelensky?
Meanwhile, some observers assume that Zaluzhny is regarded as a political threat to the Kiev regime: hence, Zelensky's warning that generals should stay away from politics. The British media outlet quotes November polls in Ukraine which show that Zelensky’s approval numbers have slid to as low as 32%, while the top general enjoyd the support of 70% of respondents. "The same polling suggests Mr. Zelensky risks losing a presidential election were he ever to go head to head with his commander-in-chief," the British magazine points out.
The West is currently orchestrating what may end up in regime change in Ukraine, retired CIA intelligence officer and State Department official Larry Johnson suggested on Sputnik's New Rules podcast earlier this month. Dmitry Evstafiev, political scientist and Higher School of Economics (HSE) University professor, voiced a similar stance while speaking to Sputnik. According to Sputnik's interlocutors, Zelensky has become too toxic and incapable of negotiating a way out of the conflict in the eyes of the West.
In some sense, the Western media is presenting Zaluzhny as a potential alternative, thus fanning the tensions further, per Graziani.
"The rift that seems to exist between Zaluzhny and Zelensky is also a product of a Western narrative, in the sense that the construction of an 'alternative' figure to Zelensky embodied by the Ukrainian commander emerges from the Western media," he remarked.
For his part, US military veteran and international affairs analyst Mark Sleboda assumed on Sputnik's Backstory podcast last week that the West had urged Zelensky to hold elections, initially scheduled for March 2024, regardless of the ongoing hostilities and martial law because they want to get rid of Zelensky through some sort of democratic procedure to keep the appearance of legitimacy in Ukraine.
It seems that Zelensky is aware of the clouds gathering on his horizon: first, the Ukrainian president categorically rejected holding the 2024 elections in the country; second, he created a story for the Western press of "a Russian plot" to oust him through "Maidan 3" in Ukraine – a reference to the Orange Revolution of 2004 and Euromaidan coup of 2014, which took place on Kiev's Independence Square, or Maidan Nezalezhnosti. Per Graziani, time will tell whom among Ukrainian political and military figures the West will pick to bet on.
"The 'Westerners' are currently observing the tension between the Ukrainian military commander and political leader; later, when and if tension grows, they will bet on who will be more malleable and inclined to attempt a negotiation," the scholar concluded.
‘The West Has Lost Confidence’: Political Dysfunction in Ukraine May Cost Zelensky His Job - Analyst
28 November 2023, 03:56 GMT
