Russia is taking over the rotating presidency in BRICS in 2024, with about 200 political, economic, and social events planned within this framework to be held in more than 10 cities, along with a summit in October in Kazan.
Weighing in on Russia’s upcoming chairmanship of the group, President Vladimir Putin underscored that its motto will be strengthening multilateralism for equitable global development and security. BRICS activities will have a positive impact on the international system. The planned Kazan BRICS Summit in October is expected to show that a growing number of countries in the world do not want to live in line with the US-enforced “rules-based order.” They prefer to be guided by their own interests and the interests of their partners, creating beneficial conditions for effective joint development, Putin stressed earlier this year. The Russian head of state reiterated these goals at his 2023 year-end press conference, which coincided with the president's annual live Q&A session. During its chairmanship, Russia intends to do everything to effectively promote the implementation of the decisions made at the BRICS Summit in August in the South African city of Johannesburg, including those related to expanding the circle of participants in the association.
‘Proactive Push Towards Multipolarity’
For example, India is looking forward to a “proactive and dynamic” BRICS presidency by Russia, with increased efforts towards achieving “multilateralism and multipolarity,” former Ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, distinguished fellow of foreign policy studies, Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations, told Sputnik.
“This is an important multilateral organization, and we're expecting Russia to make a big difference by strengthening this forum. The goal of multilateralism is shared with the members of BRICS, and also beyond it. It is not only desirable, it is actually essential,” Bhatia noted.
The member of the Confederation of Indian Industry’s Africa Committee and chair of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry’s Task Force on Blue Economy and BIMSTEC continued:
“What we expect from Russia is to stress to the world that a decision-making power cannot be restricted to a few nations. It has to be widely shared. It should be inclusive, it should be representative, and it should be for collective good.”
Furthermore, Rajiv Bhatia emphasized that “a special focus should be placed on the reform of the UN Security Council, which manifests the formal part of multilateralism. So we are hopeful that Russia will work in that direction as well.”
Russia may expand its diplomatic activities in the sense of trying to coordinate “strategic thinking about multilateralism,” agreed Prof. Alexis Habiyaremye, senior researcher with DSI/NRF, South African research chair in industrial development, University of Johannesburg. Multilateralism “still needs to have a final shape” and “contours that everybody understands,” Prof. Habiyaremye added.
“Part of the focus I expect Russia to engage on is to provide those contours and to have an alignment among existing members, but also new members,” he said.
Prof. Alexis Habiyaremye suggested that as multilateralism is linked to security and development, “its final form is going to be heavily dependent on the outcomes of [Russia’s] special military operation in Ukraine," adding that “this is where the battle is raging between the old world dominated by a hegemon, the US, with its Western allies, and the strategy of multilateralism.”
“Multipolarity, an equitable UN system, and counter balancing the US-European hegemony is an interest of all members of the Global South. It is for this reason that Russia has chosen for its presidency the theme of 'strengthening of multilateralism for a fair global development and security,'" agreed Professor Fulufhelo Netswera, executive dean of the Faculty of Management Sciences, Durban University of Technology in South Africa.
"It can be expected that Russia will champion initiatives for practically strengthening BRICS' security architecture - both economic and political,” he noted.
Russia’s objective of “pushing for greater multilateralism” will be a key focus of its 2024 BRICS chairmanship, agreed Gurjit Singh, former Indian ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN, and the African Union. He expressed hope that under Russia's presidency, conditions will be created for “greater harmony within the expanded BRICS.”
BRICS Expansion to 'Counter Western Hegemony'
The world “has become less safe not only from a physical security stand point, but economically,” Professor Fulufhelo Netswera noted. These general sentiments are shared by members of the Global South, he said, with progressive UN resolutions “stifled by the USA singlehandedly and at times with the support of the European Union.” Deploring the fact that “unipolarity has completely failed,” he underscored that the Global South had “generally voted in unison with the sentiment of the members of BRICS and echoed frustrations at the disenfranchisement of the weaker and smaller states perpetuating neocolonial and unipolarity agendas.”
"No wonder as many as 40+ countries had lined up for potential BRICS membership in 2023 because they see BRICS to be a potential counter to Western hegemony,” Professor Fulufhelo Netswera stressed.
“We will carry out close coordination with our partners on foreign policy, work together at key international platforms, primarily at the UN, and continue the practice of regular meetings of top representatives on security matters,” said Russian President Putin in December. He noted that the potential of the BRICS countries continues to increase, with the share of member states in global GDP having already exceeded that of the so-called Group of Seven (G7) in terms of purchasing power parity.
The expansion of BRICS will be an important feature of Russia's management of BRICS, Rajiv Bhatia said. As three of the invited countries are from the Gulf region and two are from Africa, that “should indicate to us where the future progress will happen,” he remarked, adding that “energy cooperation should become a domain of priority interest to all of us.”
“Critical issues of the Global South, accelerated economic development, equity, the need for more finance and technology, all those issues should now come more prominently on the BRICS agenda,” Rajiv Bhatia underscored.
An enlarged BRICS would account for 42% of global oil production and 55% of global natural gas reserves, Russia's president pointed out earlier in the year. “Over the past decade, investments by the BRICS countries in the global economy have doubled, and total exports have reached 20% of the global figure," Vladimir Putin said. Speaking of the strategy of economic partnership of the BRICS states, Putin singled out boosted cooperation in areas such as "diversification of supply chains, dedollarization and the transition to national currencies in mutual payments, the digital economy, support for small and medium-sized enterprises, and fair technology transfer.”
Russia, due to its "role in world diplomacy and politics, natural resources, its technologies," could use its chairmanship "to provide the types of confidence and security that other members of the BRICS need in order to trust the new system," Alexis Habiyaremye remarked. It is important to “give clarity to the benefits of the new system and communicate them clearly to existing members and the new members that will join,” Habiyaremye said.
Weighing in on the expansion of BRICS, Gurjit Singh hoped that the bloc would be “a supporter of the Global South,” and a “balancer of the international order by promoting multilateralism.”
Shedding Dollar Dependence
Strengthening of multilateralism is profoundly linked with ditching dependence on the dollar, Prof. Alexis Habiyaremye underscored.
It will be very important for different countries “to reconsider, reassess and reorient the economic and trade transactions,” the South African expert said, as “once international relations have changed, trade flows will also change.” “But that also means a lot of coordination to make sure that the new forms of trade reflect the new multilateralism that have been established,” he added.
Use of the dollar, the SWIFT payment system, and related monetary instruments against “foes of the US” remains “a sharp thorn in the flesh of poorer, smaller nations and developing nations,” Professor Fulufhelo Netswera remarked.
“It is only prudent that the Russian BRICS presidency will prioritize practical mechanisms to move completely from the US dollar as a medium of international trade. This is already a practical reality for the Chinese-Russian trade. Other BRICS members at the past summit argued for the use of local currencies in the interim. The resolution and implementation of new trade instruments and systems is as urgent for Russia as it is for all countries outside the Western hemisphere. The Russian presidency will surely move a step closer to make this a reality,” Professor Netswera said.
Regarding the most realistic steps that BRICS countries will be able to take in 2024 to increase their payment options, Rajiv Bhatia singled out the “march towards decreasing dependence on the dollar.” He conceded that how to achieve this goal “is an issue on which I think there is no clear consensus among the BRICS countries yet.”
“There have been at least three options which have been under discussion. One is to create a new currency called 'BRICS currency.' You know, something like the euro, which is applicable to a large number of European countries. But this looks difficult, because it presupposes a high degree of financial integration. The second idea is that BRICS countries, while handling their trade transactions, denominate them in their agreed national currency. This is already happening, for example, between India and the UAE, between Russia and China. The third option is where all the currencies are put in the BRICS ‘basket,’ member nations are given, respectively, their rates and based on that a conceptual BRICS currency is created for a limited part of the trade transactions."
According to Bhatia, this third option is one the Russian presidency might focus on.
Regarding the trend towards countries trading in their own currencies, Gurjit Singh acknowledged its importance. He cited successful examples of when Russia has sold oil in non-dollar currencies, and China has tried to increasingly use the yuan in trade.
But “diversification of supply sources is important. You cannot base this non-dollar trade on a single commodity,” he warned. Work needs to be carried out to forge “a system of non-dollar payments among the BRICS countries which will facilitate broader trade and not confine it only to energy,” Gurjit Singh said.
Looking ahead, with the new BRICS memberships effective in 2024, the bloc "will be more stronger than before,” Professor Fulufhelo Netswera believed.
“Already, BRICS has rivaled the West (US+Europe) through a variety of indicators that include population size, economic size by collective GDP, and land mass. BRICS will potentially become the biggest oil producer by 2024, with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates adding to already available oil reserves. BRICS becoming the biggest economic bloc can have excessive economic and political power if well organized and utilized,” he underscored.