Scott Ritter: US 'Sustainability' in Jeopardy as World Turns Against Hegemony
© AFP 2023 / WAKIL KOHSAR
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Ukraine will continue to sustain a strategic defeat during 2024, while the US risks finding itself engaged in a conflict with China over Taiwan, Scott Ritter, former US Marine Corps intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector, told Sputnik's Big Radio Marathon.
As 2023 comes to a close, the Israel-Palestinian crisis and the Ukrainian conflict are dominating world news, prompting questions as to what next year holds in store for the international community.
Sputnik's Dimitri Simes, Jr. sat down with former US Marine Corps intelligence officer Scott Ritter to sum up the results of the year and discuss how things may pan out in 2024.
Ukraine: Russia Determined to Reach Military and Political Goals
The Ukrainian military will continue to sustain a strategic defeat in 2024 as it is exhausted in terms of manpower, ammo and arms, according to Sputnik's interlocutor. It's up to Moscow and the Russian Armed Forces' operational tempo whether the conflict will drag on until 2025, as per Ritter.
Russia's special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine has never meant to be a blitzkrieg, the expert stressed, adding that the conflict will end when political and military objectives set by the Russian leadership are accomplished.
Presently, Russia is continuing to "grind" the Ukrainian military and steadily liberate its new territories, thus accomplishing the demilitarization task. When it comes to Moscow's political goals, it's important to stamp out the forces behind the 2014 coup d'etat that brought ultra-nationalists and neo-Nazis, including the Azov Battalion, the Svoboda Party and other ideological heirs of Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera, to power.
27 December 2023, 12:00 GMT
In the course of the special military operation, Russia has mastered modern warfare, per Sputnik's interlocutor.
"The Ukrainian-Russian conflict has opened up a new chapter in modern warfare," Ritter stressed. "The drone technology of today has changed the modern battlefield in every way that the machine gun changed warfare during World War I or the tank changed warfare during World War II. The drones have changed the face of modern warfare, and I think that armies all around the world are going to be studying or should be studying what's taking place on the battlefield between Ukraine and Russia today."
Ritter rubbished the claims made by US President Joe Biden and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that having won the Ukrainian conflict, Russia would proceed to take on NATO member states. Per Ritter, Washington's rhetoric is "fear-mongering" aimed at justifying further military spending.
After accomplishing its goals in Ukraine, Russia will focus on strengthening its military and stepping up the protection of its borders in the West, Arctic and the East, where they are threatened by the US and their NATO allies, according to the military expert.
26 December 2023, 15:10 GMT
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Will Wrap Up Early in 2024
Israel is facing nothing short of a strategic defeat against Hamas, an Islamist Palestinian group that is part of an "Axis of Resistance" led by Iran, as per Ritter.
Despite Israel waging a 70-day operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip with US backing, the Palestinian militants are far from being destroyed either militarily or politically, the expert stressed. He noted that Hamas has managed to inflict serious damage to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and gained popular support among Palestinians.
Ritter assumed that if elections were held today in Gaza and in the West Bank, Hamas would win a landslide victory, opening the door to the formation of the Palestinian state.
Hamas has been supported by Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria, forcing Israel to fight a war on multiple fronts. Despite Tel Aviv threatening Hezbollah with a repetition of the 2006 Lebanon War, Israel cannot defeat the Lebanese Shiite group, according to the former Marine Corps intelligence officer. Neither can Israel axe the Houthi resistance which is gaining momentum in the Red Sea.
The US has recently brought together an international coalition in order to safeguard the Red Sea passage. However, the coalition could end up trapped with the Houthis and Iranians shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb and Hormuz straits, with Washington unable to do about it, according to Ritter. Furthermore, coalition warships could become easy targets for Houthi and Iranian missiles and drones, he added.
One also should bear in mind that the Houthis managed to survive the Saudi Arabia coalition's war against Yemen which started in 2015, the military expert noted, citing the fact that the US provided intelligence and logistical support for the Saudi-led campaign. What's more, the Houthis managed not only to repel attacks but to carry out deep strikes targeting Saudi oil fields, he noted, adding that Riyadh eventually opted for peace talks with the insurgents.
Ritter does not see the Israel-Palestinian conflict spiraling out of control next year and believes that it will wrap up early in 2024. He points to the fact that the rift is already growing between Tel Aviv and Washington and the international community increasingly opposes the "genocide" of the Palestinian people.
"I see the Gaza conflict actually wrapping up early in 2024 and then the question is what happens next. Will Hamas be given a chance to lead a new Palestinian state or we will find ourselves in a continued political quagmire? I see the Israeli-Palestinian conflict sort of self-regulating in many ways. I don't see it expanding."
22 December 2023, 14:27 GMT
Wild Card of 2024: Potential US-China Conflict
Meanwhile, the Indo-Pacific could turn into a theater of war if the US and China clash over the island of Taiwan, according to Ritter.
In January 2024, the Taiwanese will cast ballots in general elections. The stakes are high given that the pro-US ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) could be unseated by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
While KMT vice presidential candidate Jaw Shau-kong has made it clear that he and his running mate Hou Yu-ih will not talk with China about unification if elected, the two are advocating resuming dialogue and restoring ties with the People's Republic.
For its part, the US-backed DPP has adopted a belligerent stance against Beijing, with the Biden administration increasingly arming the island. Most recently, Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping made a veiled warning to Washington about meddling in China's affairs. Beijing sees Taiwan as its sovereign territory, with Xi telling his American counterpart that China will eventually reunite with Taiwan.
Ritter believes that if the DPP wins, a conflict could potentially erupt between China and the US which would have dramatic consequences for the global market and drag the world into recession.
Could the US Wage a Multi-Front War?
While the US has already engaged in a series of proxy conflicts, the problem is that it is unprepared for an all-out war with China or Russia, according to Ritter.
According to the military expert, the Ukraine conflict has shown that the idea of the US having technological superiority has been largely overestimated. The war has become a "slow-plotting process" where numbers mean a lot, he noted.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has turned into a "meat-grinder" and "war of attrition" in which the Russian military demonstrated high resilience and agility, the military expert pointed out. Per Ritter, the Russian Armed Forces is the only army in the world that can engage in large-scale combat and replace what it has lost.
"If Russia was to take its army and go up against any NATO army, I think that you wouldn't see so much a war of attrition as you would see total dominance on the battlefield by a Russian military that, well, it wouldn't be shock and awe in terms of what the United States did to the Iraqi forces. It would be something similar because forces may fight well in the early stages of the battle. But remember, none of the NATO forces have any combat experience, and none of them have effectively absorbed the lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict."
For its part, the US cannot wage a war of attrition and "doesn't have numbers", he noted. In particular, Ritter referred to Washington's incapability of rapidly replenishing its ammo and weapon stockpiles amid the Ukraine conflict.
If the US sustains huge losses in terms of manpower, it won't be able to replace them with new troops since its draft system differs greatly from Russia's and basically relies on a limited contingent of military professionals who join the ranks voluntarily. "We don't have a system to draft people quickly," he said. To complicate matters further, the US presently has a shortfall in recruiting with the youths being disenchanted by the US modern "woke" army, he said.
"Nobody in NATO's prepared for modern warfare because they can't sustain it within a period of a week," Ritter claimed. "These NATO forces would be depleted to the point that they were no longer a cohesive combat unit. So their combat effectiveness had dropped to zero. And now you'd see Russia rolling over them."
The US defense industry is also facing challenges as many facilities have been moved overseas with production and specialists being outsourced. That's why America cannot step up its artillery capacity after providing Ukraine with ammo, he said, adding that the US has recently requested Patriot missiles from Japan. Generally, the US has become a "prisoner of the military procurement system" which is aimed not at improving the nation's security but at making money in the first place, he said.
The US ability to maintain its technological leadership may also be thrown into jeopardy, according to the military expert. Having fanned tensions with China, the US risks facing a deficit of rare earth minerals, which are crucial in manufacturing electronics, electric vehicles and military equipment. In 2022, China accounted for 70% of global mine production of rare earths. For comparison's sake, the US accounted for just a 14% share of the same market last year.
To make a long story short, the US does not have the capacity to maintain its global hegemony and engage in high-intensity conflicts worldwide, as per Ritter. The world is turning against the US imperial ambitions, seeking to create a multi-polar environment where all countries are treated equally and with due respect, the former Marine Corps intelligence officer underscored.
"China, Russia and indeed much of the developing world have determined that continued relations with the United States along these lines would be detrimental to them, that they don't want American hegemony. They're looking for a multilateral world where everybody operates as equals. And the American economic model is not based upon American equality with people: it's about America, the superior nation, the exceptional nation, dictating the terms of coexistence," Ritter concluded.
25 December 2023, 13:43 GMT
